2022-2023 Conference Championship Round Picks Recap
2022 All Picks Recap
Wildcard Round – 4/6 correct
Divisional Round – 2/4 correct
Conference Championships Round – 1/2 correct
How Both Teams Got Here
Offense
Chiefs enter this game averaging 359.5 yards of offense per playoff game (266.5 passing yards, 93.0 rushing yards) and scoring 25.0 points per game. Eagles have been a run heavy team in the playoffs averaging 342.5 yards of offense (134.5 passing yards, 208.0 rushing yards) and scoring 34.5 points per game. After completing a simple numerical analysis, the betting line should be Philadelphia favored by 9.5 points based on team offensive statistics only.
Kansas City Analysis
Chiefs are led by QB Patrick Mahomes (5250 passing yards, 41 passing TDs, 358 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs). Hard to believe Mahomes got a spot start in the last game of the 2017 regular season, and now he’s headed to a third Super Bowl in the last four seasons. Running game relies solely on rookie Isiah Pacheco (830 rushing yards, 5 TDs). Pacheco has raised his average yards per carry from 4.9 yards in the regular season, to 5.5 yards in the postseason. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon rotate in and out of the backfield on situational plays. Receiving corps goes four players deep and is highlighted by all-world TE Travis Kelce (1338 receiving yards, 12 TDs) and resilient WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (933 receiving yards, 3 TDs).
Philadelphia Analysis
Eagles are led by third year QB Jalen Hurts (3701 passing yards, 22 passing TDs, 760 rushing yards, 13 rushing TDs). Hurts has learned how to play as a dual threat QB at the NFL level and blossomed on the stat sheet in 2021 and 2022. Running game is paced by Miles Sanders (1269 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs) and Kenneth Gainwell. Receiving corps goes four players deep and has two top tier WRs in A. J. Brown (1496 receiving yards, 11 TDs), and DaVonta Smith (1196 receiving yards, 7 TDs). TE Dallas Goedert (702 receiving yards, 3 TDs) not only moves the chains, he anchors an excellent run blocking first mentality on every down and distance.
Advantage – Trying to determine which team has a better offense is almost like splitting hairs. Even though Mahomes isn’t 100% healthy with a high ankle sprain, this category is a tie due to the big playmakers on both squads.
Defense
Kansas City Analysis
Chiefs have had a solid season due to being the #11 ranked team defense in the NFL during the 2022 regular season. 328.2 total yards allowed per game (220.9 passing yards and 107.2 rushing yards against). Ranked #16 during the regular season for allowing 21.7 points per game. Kansas City may appear to run a bend but don’t break defense, but their 2022 regular season statistics tell a different story. 55 total sacks, 11 interceptions and 13 forced fumbles clearly show that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s has his guys playing a ball hawking style.
DT Chris Jones (15.5 sacks) and DT Khalen Saunders (3.5 sacks) will put pressure on the Eagles backfield. Young LBs Nick Bolton and Willie Gay will try to keep Jalen Hurts from running deep into the secondary. CB L’Jarius Sneed (3 INTs) and S Juan Thornhill (3 INTs) will try to slow down A.J. Brown and DaVonta Smith from having big games. Spagnuolo is used to coaching in big games when his squad looks overmatched on paper, just ask the 2007 New England Patriots.
Philadelphia Analysis
Eagles had a stout regular season on defense with 301.5 total yards allowed per game (179.8 passing yards and 121.6 rushing yards against). Ranked #8 during the regular season for allowing 20.2 points per game. Philadelphia went off with 70.0 sacks during the 2022 regular season. LB Haason Reddick (16 sacks), DT Jason Hargrave (11 sacks), DE Josh Sweat (11 sacks) and DE Brandon Graham (11 sacks) will spend time trying to catch Patrick Mahomes. Secondary had 17 INTs during the regular season and are anchored by S C.J. Gardner-Johnson, CB Darius Slay and CB James Bradberry. Due to the intense pressure the Eagles DL and LBs will put on Mahomes, the Chiefs receiving corps are literally running into the Bermuda Triangle against this secondary. After completing a simple numerical analysis, the betting line should have the Eagles favored by 1.5 points based on team defense statistics only.
Advantage: Philadelphia due to their ability to impact every play at the line of scrimmage and having a solid secondary unit. If the Chiefs trail by double digits, this matchup could look similar to Super Bowl 55, when Mahomes looked human for sixty minutes.
Special Teams
Harrison Butker has been inconsistent kicking FGs and XPs for the Chiefs this season during both the regular season and postseason. Converted 23/29 field goal attempts and 43/46 extra point attempts. Those statistics equal 112 points on the scoreboard. Butker missed four games due to injuries during the regular season. Tommy Townsend is averaging an astronomical 50.4 yards per punt, and has flipped field position several times this season at critical times.
Jake Elliott has converted 22/25 field goal attempts and 60/68 extra point points for the Eagles during the regular season and postseason. Those statistics equal 126 points on the scoreboard. Arryn Siposs is averaging 45.6 yards per punt this season and this will be his first game action since injuring his ankle in Week 14.
Advantage: Another tie category due to Philadelphia having a more dependable kicker and Kansas City having a better punter to flip field position.
Coaching
Kansas City Analysis
Andy Reid has been the head coach of the Chiefs since 2013, and he was the head coach of the Eagles from 1999-2012. One of the last NFL coaches to be from the old school mentality of practicing hard, preparing hard and perfecting game play execution due to repetitions. Has meshed incredibly well with star QB Patrick Mahomes since 2017, and lets offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy use the deepest playbook in the NFL. Quietly hired defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo at the beginning of the 2019 season. One of the most stable coaching staffs in the entire NFL. Fourth time Reid has coached in the Super Bowl and has a 1-2 record (lost Super Bowl 39, won Super Bowl 54, lost Super Bowl 55).
Philadelphia Analysis
Nick Sirianni has been the head coach of the Eagles since 2021. Was on the Indianapolis Colts coaching staff from 2018-2020 (offensive coordinator). Relies heavily on his talented offensive coordinator (Shane Steichen) and underrated defensive coordinator (Jonathan Gannon). Had no problems trading away franchise QB Carson Wentz prior to the 2021 regular season and developed QB Jalen Hurts quicker than expected. Made the NFC playoffs in 2021 as a Wild Card team at 9-8 and lost to Tampa Bay. Was the driving force behind the 2022 NFL Draft day acquisition of WR A.J. Brown that suddenly transformed the offensive into an unstoppable unit. Defense is aggressive up front and sound on the back end. Sirianni quickly closed the door on the Doug Pederson era and definitely seems like the real deal. He’s only 41 years old and has a bright career path in front of him.
Advantage: Kansas City due to Reid’s prior coaching experience in three Super Bowls. Chiefs prefer to air the ball out and Philadelphia wants to run the ball with authority. This coaching chess match will be entertaining to watch.
Intangibles for Kansas City
Intangibles for Philadelphia
Game Prediction
Same bat time, same bat channel in one week. I’ll review the results of Super Bowl 57 and summarize the season picks on 2/20/23.
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