This article covers predicted NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 11 and top 5 upsets. Thursday Night Football on Fox is right around the corner on 11/18/21 and that means Week 11 is starting. Time to continue with a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of Covid-19 impacts, no fans in the stands and a surprising post season.
2021 Week 10 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 3/5 correct thanks to Green Bay, Tennessee and Kansas City
Top 5 upsets that could happen = 3/5 correct thanks to Philadelphia, San Francisco and Minnesota
Overall picks – 6/10 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 27/50 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 20/50 correct
Overall picks – 47/100 correct which is one standard deviation below the mean
Thursday Night game on Fox is a rematch of Super Bowl 51. Falcons had a 28-3 lead late in the third quarter, only to watch a frenetic Patriots comeback tie the game at 28-28. Patriots won the OT coin flip, drove the length of the field for the game winning two yard touchdown run by James White. Falcons have changed their head coach and offensive coordinator since that game. Patriots went 1-1 in Super Bowls 52 and 53, before letting Tom Brady walk in free agency in 2020. Fox announcers Troy Aikman and Joe Buck will probably recap what they were doing when the momentum abruptly shifted in Super Bowl 51.
Prediction: Patriots are 6.5 point road favorites and will win by 7+ points
4. Pittsburgh vs. Los Angeles Chargers
https://youtu.be/srSz-JlhEHM
Steelers hopefully realize that Mason Rudolph is NOT, I repeat NOT the answer at QB when Ben Roethlisberger decides to retire. Due to untimely injuries, Pittsburgh’s offense has become two running plays by Najee Harris, followed by a play action pass to their TE corps. That type of offense worked in the 1970s and early 1980s, but doesn’t cut it in 2021. Chargers were cruising at 4-1 through the first five weeks of this season and playing like a fast sports car for new coach Brandon Staley. Three losses in their last four games have brought the Chargers back down to earth and they are now in a crowded AFC West divisional race. Hoping Big Ben gets cleared to play and has an offensive shootout against Justin Hebert.
Prediction: Chargers are 6.0 point home favorites and will grind out a 3 point victory if Roethlisberger doesn’t play. If Big Ben plays, this game is a toss up on Sunday night.
3. Indianapolis vs. Buffalo
The suddenly resurgent Colts head to the best little city in New York to take on the sputtering Bills. Head Coach Frank Reich and QB Carson Wentz are clearly showing how well they work together. Helps that budding superstar RB Jonathan Taylor is leading the NFL in rushing yards for the Colts, to allow Wentz to effectively run the offense. Bills were playing well until an ugly loss to Jacksonville in Week 9 and they need to get back to a balanced offensive playbook. The AFC East was Buffalo’s to lose at the beginning of the 2021 season and now the Patriots are right behind them in the standings, with two matchups in December 2021. Bills need to focus on a weekly basis and not on a monthly basis. Will be an entertaining game for 60 minutes.
Prediction: Bills are currently 7.0 home favorites and will win by 4+ points
2. Green Bay vs. Minnesota
Old fashioned NFC Central matchup that always seems to be close on the scoreboard. Doesn’t seem that long ago, when QB Brett Favre was traded from the Packers to the New York Jets and then ended up with the Vikings. That “trade” was utilized by the Packers to change QBs, with their 2005 first round draft pick, Aaron Rodgers, taking over the team under center.
One Super Bowl 45 victory in early 2011 and three NFL MVP awards later, Rodgers is currently the most disgruntled employee in the NFL and playing at an extremely high level. Vikings continue to play close games in 2021, with eight of their nine games being decided by seven points or less. Playing close games can either galvanize a team or tear it apart. Vikings seem to relish playing in stressful scoring situations, but they haven’t lined up against an offensive team of the Packers caliber yet in 2021. Must watch viewing for 60 minutes.
Prediction: Packers are currently a 1.0 point road favorite and will win by 3 points with a walk off field goal
1. Dallas vs. Kansas City
America’s Team vs. Patrick Mahomes and a paper tiger defensive unit. Cowboys responded to their lackluster effort in Week 9 against Denver, by smoking the Falcons 43-3 in Week 10. Dak Prescott continues to lead the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award, but the Cowboys running game needs to determine what identity they are going to be.
Chiefs came back to life in Week 10 by throttling the Raiders 41-14 on the road. With both the Chargers and Raiders trending down, the Broncos treading water at or near 0.500, the Chiefs look like they could run the AFC West table yet again during the second half of the season. This game will be a telling barometer of how the top tier NFC teams are significantly better than the muddled mass of AFC top tier teams.
Prediction: Chiefs are current 2.5 point home favorites and will scratch out an ugly 3 point victory
NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 11 for Upsets that might happen
5. Arizona vs. Seattle
Can’t get the image of backup QB Drew Stanton celebrating the Cardinals late rushing TD in the Week 10 game at CenturyLink Field during the 2015 season. Cardinals advanced all the way to the NFC Championship game that season, losing to Carolina. Seahawks haven’t advanced past the NFC Divisional playoffs round since 2014, and the clock is ticking on Russell Wilson’s productive seasons. Cardinals are looking at the real possibility of their #1 QB (Kyler Murray) and their #2 QB (Colt McCoy) not being able to play this game due to injuries. If both QBs are unable to play, it’ll be Chris Streveler getting the start, which is exactly what the Seahawks need to see after being shut at Green Bay in Week 10. Arizona is currently a 2.5 point road favorite, but with starting a third string QB, the Seahawks will be licking their chops on defense.
4. New Orleans vs. Philadelphia
Talk about two teams that are a Man in the Mirror. Saints are on a two game losing streak by a total of four points. When will Sean Payton make the switch at QB from Trevor Siemian to Taysom Hill? Saints picked a bad time to have a ton of critical injuries. Eagles have a completely different vibe after a big road win at Denver and seeing Jalen Hurts continue to grow into the QB position.
Nice to see the 2020 Heisman Trophy winner, DeVonta Smith, have a breakout game in Week 10 with two TDs. Just a matter of time until Smith is leading the NFL Rookie of the Year award race. Eagles are currently 2.0 point home favorites, but the Saints seem to play better team ball on the road and will be in this game late in the fourth quarter.
3. Cincinnati vs. Las Vegas
Toss up game with two AFC teams playing with identical 5-4 records. Bengals are coming off two ugly losses to the New York Jets and Cleveland. The on-field chemistry between QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase has seemed to evaporate since Halloween. That happens all the time to rookies and second year players in the NFL. It’ll be interesting to see how Burrow and Chase respond to better competition. Raiders have moved past Jon Gruden’s resignation earlier in the season, and are now dealing with WR Henry Ruggs car accident and subsequent house arrest. For a team that had a roster full of talented players at the beginning of the season, the rails are now officially coming off and they could be lapped in the AFC West. Bengals are currently 1.0 point road favorites, but this is a toss up game depending on both teams psyche.
2. New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay
There are times when its almost impossible to find five potential upset games in a week during the 2021 NFL season. This matchup between the Giants and Buccaneers falls directly into that category. Giants are one of the worst teams in the NFL and have beaten three teams (Saints, Panthers, Raiders) they shouldn’t have. Buccaneers are scary good on offense due to robotic QB Tom Brady, who continues to produce insane passing statistics (2870 yards and 27 touchdowns). Tampa Bay looked unbeatable during the first half of the season, but the last two weeks they’ve started flat and haven’t gotten off the mat. Hoping they aren’t trying to duplicate the 2003 Buccaneers squad. Buccaneers are currently 11.0 point home favorites and should cover that line easily, but this is 2021 and almost anything can happen.
1. Detroit vs. Cleveland
Browns were sky high after beating the Bengals 41-16 on the road in Week 9 and have already forgotten the Patriots game blowout in Week 10. Baker Mayfield is back as the unquestioned team leader due to playing with multiple injuries and wearing his emotions on his sleeve. Lions were able to tie the Steelers in Week 10, due to timely turnovers and playing a defense first playbook for 70 minutes. Browns are currently 11.5 point home favorites, but this is a trap game due to how the Lions are responding to their new head coach, Dan Campbell. It is simply a matter of time until the Lions get their first victory of 2021.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 11 and try again in Week 12.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas! Hope you enjoyed NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 11.
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