This article covers predicted NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 7 and top 5 upsets. Thursday Night Football on Fox is right around the corner on 10/21/21 and that means Week 7 is starting. Time to continue with a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of Covid-19 impacts, no fans in the stands and a surprising post season.
2021 Week 6 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 3/5 correct thanks to Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Baltimore
Top 5 upsets that could happen = 2/5 correct thanks to Las Vegas and Jacksonville
Overall picks – 5/10 which makes me located right at the mean/median of this data set
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 18/30 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 12/30 correct
Overall picks – 30/60 correct which makes me Even Steven in Seinfeld talk
Please cue up The Drive highlights from the 1986 AFC Championship Game, The Fumble from the 1987 AFC Championship Game and the domination of a Bud Carson defense from the 1989 AFC Championship Game, for all Broncos fans. A three game winning streak followed by a three game losing streak is hard to stomach in 2021. Browns were supposed to be the darlings of the AFC based on how they finished the 2020 season and playoffs, but they can’t get anything going at 3-3. Baker Mayfield won’t play QB due to a labrum tear in his shoulder, giving way to Case Keenum at QB. Keenum was part of the horribly incorrect QB experiment in Denver after Peyton Manning retired, even confusing John Elway during an introductory news conference. This will be a bumpy and inconsistent game, but could be a nice break to watch from the tense NLCS Game 5 between the Braves and Dodgers.
Prediction: Browns are 2.0 point home favorites, but the Broncos find a way to win this game by 4 points
4. Cincinnati vs. Baltimore
Joe Burrow vs. Lamar Jackson. A QB with a damaged voice box vs. a QB who would rather do an acrobatic flip into the end zone instead of scoring standing up. Two different playing styles and personalities, leading two young and very good AFC teams into a must-watch matchup. Bengals passing game continues to improve each week, but they will be trying to move the chains into the teeth of the Ravens defense. No one has figured out how to stop Lamar Jackson version 2.0 (new and improved from his 2019 MVP season). Bengals defense will have to make some timely third down stops and win the turnover battle to have a chance in this game. Ravens are almost unbeatable at home.
Prediction: Ravens win a tight game by 6 points
3. Chicago vs. Tampa Bay
Eagles made the Buccaneers work last week on Thursday night, and it showed that the Bucs defense might have some issues closing tight games out. Bears are somehow 3-3 with a clueless head coach and absolutely no plan on who should be playing QB. Bears might confuse Tom Brady and company for 1-2 quarters and then it’ll be business as usual at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, FL. Lots of pitch and catch between Brady and Mike Evans, with some Leonard Fournette runs sprinkled in for seasoning.
Prediction: Tampa Bay are currently 12.5 point home favorites and will cover that line easily
2. New Orleans vs. Seattle
Hard to believe these two teams are 8-8 in head to head matchups that started in 1976. Seahawks fans will continue to point to the playoff games in 2010 and 2014, as stepping stones to the rock solid Pete Carroll coaching era. If this game was played in 2020, it would be Drew Brees vs. Russell Wilson at QB, in a great offensive chess match. Since we’re in 2021, the QB battle will be Jameis Winston vs. Geno Smith and I feel my hand changing the television channel to a different game. If there’s rainy weather at kickoff, the Seahawks will try to establish their non-existent power running game and play a game of field position. If there’s dry weather, Smith might try to get into an offensive shootout with James, but the Seahawks don’t have the personnel to pull that off.
Prediction: New Orleans enters Lumen Field as a rare 4.5 point road favorite and they’ll win by 7 points
1. Kansas City vs. Tennessee
Rematch of the 2020 AFC Championship Game that the Chiefs won 35-24, prior to beating the 49ers in Super Bowl 54. Week #6 had Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs waking up in all phases of the game, with an easy victory over the Washington Football Team. Still too many turnovers for the Chiefs, caused by WRs not watching passes fully into their hands. Titans had a statement win over the Bills on Monday Night Football, thanks to a three TD night for Derrick Henry and a game saving goal line stand in the final minute. This game will truly be a ying and yang contest due to Mahomes being able to carve up the Titans defense, and the Chiefs defense being paper thin against a strong running attack. Tune in for all 60 minutes to see if the Chiefs three year window of AFC dominance is officially closing.
Prediction: Chiefs are current 5.5 point road favorites, but they can’t handle a steady diet of Derrick Henry. Titans win by 4 points.
NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 7 for Upsets that might happen
5. Atlanta vs. Miami
Matt Ryan vs. Tua Tagovailoa at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, FL. Dolphins are still mad about ending Jacksonville’s twenty game losing streak last weekend in London, England. Falcons have been competitive in their last four games, but they just seem stuck in neutral on both sides of the ball. Tagovailoa is playing hurt for the first time in his NFL career, which should motivate his teammates in the huddle and on the sideline. Falcons are currently 2.5 point road favorites, but this is a toss-up game.
4. Philadelphia vs. Las Vegas
I keep coming back to the Eagles for upset picks week after week, and that trend continues at Las Vegas in Week #7. Raiders responded to the firing of Jon Gruden by getting a hard fought road victory at Denver in Week #6. Their stable of RBs are now healthy and starting to run the ball with consistency. Eagles continue to play teams close but not finish games. Now that they’ve traded Zach Ertz to Arizona, not sure how the Eagles will convert third downs and be effective in the red zone. Simple answer is to turn Jalen Hurts loose as a read option QB and see what happens. Raiders are current 3.0 point home favorites, but the Eagles will push them late into the third quarter.
3. Indianapolis vs. San Francisco
Still trying to figure out how the Colts lost a 16 point lead in the fourth quarter and ultimately the game in overtime to the Ravens in Week #5. Colts secondary was hit hard with injuries during that game, and is now Swiss cheese due to losing Julian Blackmon for the season with a torn Achilles. 49ers have three quality loses in a row (Seahawks, Packers and Cardinals), but they are being lapped by the Rams and Arizona in the NFC West. Both 49er QBs (Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance) are banged up this week, so the Colts porous defense might not be tested. San Francisco is currently 4.0 point home favorites, but the Colts could steal this game if the 49ers have no QB.
2. Carolina vs. New York Giants
Seems a lifetime ago that the Panthers were the surprise talk of the NFL and Sam Darnold was a reborn QB when they were 3-0. After a three game losing streak, the media experts have cooled on the Panthers and they are considered another .500 football team that needs a lucky bounce or two. Giants continue to be a bad NFC East team that is only competitive with the other cellar dwellers. Saquon Barkley is still injured with a high ankle sprain. If Daniel Jones regresses anymore as a QB, he’ll be below ground playing Dig Dug. Panthers are currently 3.0 point road favorites and they should cover, unless this game becomes a turnover battle and Barkley runs wild.
1. New York Jets vs. New England
Uff da, another 1-4 vs 2-4 matchup that is hard to get excited about. Mac Jones continues to show why he was handed the starting QB spot with the Patriots, after last week’s overtime classic against the Cowboys. Granted he’s not winning games yet, but the 2021 season is a mirror image of Drew Bledsoe’s rookie season in 1993. Jones will make mistakes and continue to learn on the job, but the tools will be in place for 2022. Jets continue to find new ways to lose and were hammered by the Patriots in Week #2, 25-6. Here’s to the Jets cobbling an effort together that makes the Patriots earn their current 7.0 point home favorite role, and reminds fans of the late 1990s AFC East games.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 7 and try again in Week 8.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas! Hope you enjoyed NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 7.
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