This article covers predicted NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 9 and top 5 upsets. Thursday Night Football on Fox is right around the corner on 11/4/21 and that means Week 9 is starting. Time to continue with a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of Covid-19 impacts, no fans in the stands and a surprising post season.
2021 Week 8 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 1/5 correct thanks to Pittsburgh
Top 5 upsets that could happen = 1/5 correct thanks to Carolina
Overall picks – 2/10 which makes me officially at the Mendoza Line and should use a dartboard to make game picks
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 22/40 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 15/40 correct
Overall picks – 37/80 correct which is one standard deviation below the mean
First game for the Broncos in the post-Von Miller era, due to his trade to the Rams on 11/1/21. The Denver franchise is headed in three different directions right now: coaching staff, front office management and ownership. Until the Broncos are officially sold by the Bowlen family, the team on the playing field will be below average. This wasn’t Pat Bowlen’s vision or John Elway’s plan but its the current reality for the Broncos. Cowboys are riding a six game winning streak and are considered one of the three top tier NFC teams.
Prediction: Cowboys are 10.0 point home favorites and will run a clinic on the Broncos defense to win by 13 points
4. Cleveland vs. Cincinnati
Intriguing matchup of the 4-4 Browns vs. the 5-3 Bengals from Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. A somewhat healthy Baker Mayfield vs. a healthy Joe Burrow. Both teams WRs and TEs should be catching a ton of passes in an offensive shootout. Browns will be playing their first game in the post-Odell Beckham Jr. era. Bengals already have a close knit team with good chemistry and that will translate with their quality of play on the field.
Prediction: Cincinnati is currently a 2.5 point home favorite and will neutralize the Browns running game to win by 7 points
3. Green Bay vs. Kansas City
Supposed to be a battle of two NFL MVPs (Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes), has now turned into the Green Bay Packers soap opera of 2021. Rodgers tested positive for Covid-19 earlier this week due to being unvaccinated and now the rest of the NFL is questioning the virus protocols being used by the Packers. Not to mention Green Bay’s last second road victory against Arizona during Week 8. Chiefs continue to roll out a paper thin defense, in hopes of Patrick Mahomes playing Superman with every snap of the ball on offense. This would have been a passing game matchup if Rodgers was starting, now it’ll be a clock and field position management game. Chiefs will think they have finally caught their first lucky break in 2021.
Prediction: Chiefs are currently 7.0 point home favorites and will win by 4 points to move up in the messy AFC standings
2. Tennessee vs. Los Angeles Rams
Great AFC vs. NFC matchup with both teams focusing on defense first, running the ball second and gunslingers at QB. Titans are the hottest team in the AFC at this moment, but they’ll have to morph their game plan due to being without injured RB Derrick Henry. Rams are welcoming Von Miller to their top tier defense. By waiving DeSean Jackson earlier this week, that move will free up the underrated Rams WR corps to continue producing big statistics with Matthew Stafford running the offense. Must watch Sunday night viewing on NBC. Just mute the volume when Cris Collinsworth decides to pontificate about how to run a pass first offense in today’s NFL.
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams are currently a 7.0 point home favorite and they’ll win by 10 points
1. Chicago vs. Pittsburgh
Another NFC vs AFC matchup with two teams moving in opposite directions. Bears have lost three games in a row badly on the scoreboard and their offensive game planning is frankly a joke. Steelers have won three relatively tight games in a row and their young offensive line is starting to gel. If the Steelers are going to get back to running the ball, this is the perfect game to let Najee Harris display his natural ability against the Bears defense giving up 125 yards per game. Several momentum swings in this game due to turnovers and special teams. If you like two yards and a cloud of dust type offenses, this is spellbinding Monday night viewing.
Prediction: Steelers are current 6.5 point home favorites and will win by 9+ points
NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 9 for Upsets that might happen
5. Atlanta vs. New Orleans
Falcons have continued their 2021 pattern of barely beating bad teams (Giants, Jets, Dolphins), and then getting smoked by average teams (Washington, Eagles, Panthers). Saints will be making another significant transition at QB, due to Jameis Winston’s torn ACL in Week 8. Trevor Siemian gets the starting QB nod over Taysom Hill for New Orleans. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram will get a ton of carries to take the air out of the football and limit turnovers. Matt Ryan excels playing at indoor stadiums and the Saints secondary isn’t imposing. Saints are currently 6.0 point home favorites, they’ll have a difficult time covering with a third string QB, let alone winning this game.
4. New England vs. Carolina
All of the talking heads jumped on the Patriots bandwagon after their 27-24 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 8. Pump the brakes on New England in 2021 and here’s why: they are 1-4 at home, Buffalo Bills have a two game lead in the AFC East, and they will be underdogs in at least four of their remaining eight games. Patriots are building towards 2022 and 2021 is technically a practice season.
Panthers broke a four game losing streak in Week 8 with a 19-13 win over the Falcons. Carolina has issues at committing to a QB and an upside down front office, but they welcome back Christian McCaffrey this week at RB. When healthy, McCaffrey has a tendency to make the game look easy and all team issues to disappear. Patriots are current 3.5 point road favorites, but the Panthers real offense will cause problems for 60 minutes.
3. Minnesota vs. Baltimore
Hard to believe the Vikings have lost four games by a total of fifteen points (3.8 points per game) and won three games by a total of twenty one points (7.0 points per game). Mike Zimmer’s squad will always complete for four quarters, and are a lucky break or two away from being a very good team in 2021. Ravens come into this game at 5-2 and were outplayed in all phases during a 41-7 loss to the Bengals in Week 8 at home. Lamar Jackson will try to run all over the field with the Ravens zone read offense. Baltimore is currently 6.0 point home favorites and won’t cover, since the Vikings statistical analysis shows this game will be decided by four points or less.
2. Los Angeles Chargers vs. Philadelphia
Chargers were the early surprise of the AFC at 4-1, then they lost badly at Baltimore, had a bye week and then nipped by the young Patriots at home. Justin Herbert is starting to make second year mistakes at QB, which end up shifting team momentum during big plays in games. Eagles are all over the map in terms of being in close games or blowouts. Current statistic that is solid, is the Eagles are 0-3 at home. Chargers are currently a 1.5 point road favorite, but west coast teams never travel well to the east coast for the 12:00 PM EST kickoff time. Eagles are due to push the Chargers into the fourth quarter.
1. Arizona vs. San Francisco
Cardinals lost their first game of 2021 in Week 8 against the Packers. Two key players, QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins, are questionable for this game. If Murray is unable to play, Colt McCoy will start at QB, which is similar from driving a Porsche to driving a Pinto. I’m hoping the Cardinals get James Connor more involved into the offense since he’s a true football player.
49ers had a surprising road win at Chicago in Week 8, after suffering a four game losing streak. Second matchup of the season for these NFC West teams, with the Cardinals winning 17-10 in Week 4. Can’t shake the feeling that Kyle Shannahan is tired of coaching in the NFL due to his body language on the sideline over the past month. 49ers are currently 3.5 point home favorites, which is accurate if McCoy is the starting QB. Cardinals won’t go away for four quarters no matter who their QB is today.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 9 and try again in Week 10.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas! Hope you enjoyed NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 9.
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