This article covers predicted NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 12 and top 5 upsets. Thanksgiving Day football on Fox is right around the corner on 11/25/21 and that means Week 12 is starting. Time to continue with a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of Covid-19 impacts, no fans in the stands and a surprising post season.
2021 Week 11 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 3/5 correct thanks to New England, Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City
Top 5 upsets that could happen = 0/5 thanks to all betting lines staying accurate
Overall picks – 3/10 which is too close to the Mendoza line
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 30/55 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 20/55 correct
Overall picks – 50/110 correct which is one standard deviation below the mean
Late afternoon Thanksgiving Day game on CBS is an intriguing matchup at Jerry’s World in Arlington, TX. Raiders limp into this game at 5-5 and sporting a bad three game losing streak. Due to a lackluster effort the last two weeks, the Raiders have been passed by the Chargers and Chiefs in the AFC West. Darren Waller at TE has been a bright spot for the Raiders offense, but the lack of a running game and no WRs to stretch the field have doomed this team in 2021. Cowboys have responded to their bad loss against the Broncos in Week 9, by thumping Atlanta in Week 10 and then ran into a suddenly hot Kansas City defense in Week 11. Dak Prescott is consistently playing at a high level each week and the Cowboys continue to lead the NFL in total offensive yards per game at 418.1.
Prediction: Cowboys are 7.5 point home favorites and will win by 10 points
4. Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
Steelers had a chance to steal a huge road win in Week 11 at the Chargers, by scoring 17 points in 1:25 of playing time in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh’s short handed secondary couldn’t keep the Chargers out of the end zone late in the game and lost 41-37. If the Steelers want to keep pace in the AFC North and Wildcard races, they have to win this rematch with the Bengals. Bengals won 24-10 in Week 3, but have been inconsistent during their last three games. Cincinnati has found a way to get RB Joe Mixon back into their offensive game plan, while utilizing Ja’Marr Chase less in the passing game. Until the Bengals figure out how out to implement a balanced offense, they will be maddening to watch on a weekly basis.
Prediction: Bengals are 4.5 point home favorites and will expose the Steelers secondary for an 8+ point win
3. Tampa Bay vs. Indianapolis
Buccaneers got back on the winning track in Week 11 against the Giants, after two shaky weeks at the Saints and at the Washington Football Team. Only blemish from the Monday night victory, was WR Mike Evans pulling up with an apparent hamstring injury in the fourth quarter. Tampa Bay’s remaining schedule is extremely easy, so get ready for another long winning streak by Tom Brady and his buddies. Colts have found their offensive groove with five wins in their last six games. RB Jonathan Taylor erupted for five TDs in Week 11 against the Bills, and he’s no longer operating below the NFL radar. Colts QB Carson Wentz didn’t get to duel against Tom Brady in Super Bowl 52 due to injury, but will relish this matchup to see how much his team has improved. Must watch viewing for 60 minutes.
Prediction: Buccaneers are currently 3.0 road favorites and will win by 3 points in walk-off fashion
2. Tennessee vs. New England
Titans were cruising along as the best team in the AFC until running into a bad rainstorm and the lowly Houston Texans in Week 11. Three week experiment of using the ageless Adrian Peterson to fill in at RB for the injured Derrick Henry has officially ended. Titans will try two young RBs, D’Ontra Foreman and Dontrell Hillard, to keep the running game going in December and January. Patriots are on an impressive five game winning streak and playing top notch team defense. Bill Belichick’s offensive game plan is also clicking by avoiding turnovers and controlling the play clock. This will be a relatively low scoring game due to both team’s strong defenses and low risk offensive play calls. Field position, field position, field position.
Prediction: Patriots are currently a 6.5 point home favorite and will win by 4 points to muddle the top of the AFC standings
1. Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay
Rematch of the 2020 NFC Divisional Playoff Game that the Packers won 32-18 on 1/16/21. Rams are currently on a two game losing streak and seem to be running on fumes on defense. Matthew Stafford may have to carry this team on his back through the month of December. Green Bay was clicking in all phases of the game, until a walk off field goal loss to Minnesota in Week 11. Aaron Rodgers will put up with his broken toe injury during this game. Expect Rodgers to produce his usual top tier passing statistics and give the Packers yet another chance to win a big NFC late season game.
Prediction: Betting line is currently even and the Packers will win by 6 points
NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 12 for Upsets that might happen
5. Chicago vs. Detroit
Morning game on Thanksgiving Day on Fox. Bears are mired in a five game losing streak and rumors continue to swirl that head coach Matt Nagy will be fired after this game. Justin Fields has been somewhat of a bust rookie at QB, but the Bears haven’t done him any favors with lack of offensive line protection during the 2021 season. Lions continue to push their proverbial rock up that hill, with no luck in sight. Detroit typically plays well at home on Thanksgiving. That trend should continue for the Lions, despite being a 3.0 point home underdog.
4. Buffalo vs. New Orleans
Evening game on Thanksgiving Day on NBC. Bills haven’t been consistent since a Week 7 loss to the Titans. Buffalo hasn’t figured out how to defend teams with strong rushing attacks. Bills will most likely be underdogs in four of their remaining seven regular season games. Saints are the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team of 2021, coming off a three game winning streak, followed by a three game losing streak. New Orleans has had too many critical team injuries for any reasonable football fan to consider them a playoff caliber team. Trevor Siemian has been a decent fill in QB for Jameis Winston, but its time to hand the car keys to Taysom Hill and see what he can do. Bills are currently 6.0 road favorites, but the Saints will definitely feed off some home cooking to be close in the fourth quarter.
3. Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver
Old fashioned AFC West matchup that used to be an aerial show for both teams. Chargers are coming off an entertaining win over the Steelers in Week 11 and are trying to keep pace with the Chiefs. Four of the seven remaining regular season games are against AFC West opponents, which is exactly where the Chargers want to be. After an incredible team effort against Dallas in Week 9, the Broncos laid an egg at home against Philadelphia in Week 10. Maybe a bye week break will do the Broncos psyche some good, as they host the high flying Chargers. Los Angeles is currently a 2.5 point road favorite, but hoping the Broncos have some Mile High magic left in 2021 to keep this contest close for 60 minutes.
2. Cleveland vs. Baltimore
Need to go down memory road again in Week 12. Baltimore Colts relocated to Indianapolis in the middle of the night during early 1984. Art Modell moved his Browns out of Cleveland after the 1995 season and landed in Baltimore as the Ravens. The NFL placed an expansion team in Cleveland in 1999 and Drew Carey was the happiest man in show business at that point in time. Ravens have won two Super Bowls (2000 and 2012). Browns continue to tease their fan base with games of greatness, followed by inconsistent play. This is the first matchup in 2021 for both of these AFC North teams and therefore it’ll be memorable. Baltimore is currently 3.5 point home favorites, but Cleveland will keep this game close into the fourth quarter.
1. Minnesota vs. San Francisco
49ers lead the historical series 24-23-1 dating back to 1961. Most recent matchup was the 2019 NFC Divisional Round, with the 49ers winning 27-10. Vikings finally won a close game in Week 11 over the Packers, with a walk-off field goal. Kirk Cousins has quietly thrown for 2775 passing yards and 21 touchdowns. Justin Jefferson is having a breakout season in Minnesota as the #1 WR with 944 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. 49ers have won three of their last four games and are moving up the NFC wild card standings. Deebo Samuel has catapulted into the upper tier of WRs in 2021, with 994 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. If healthy, TE George Kittle and Samuel could cause the 49ers to be a dangerous team to face in December and January. San Francisco is currently a 3.0 point home favorite, but Minnesota is comfortable playing one possession games and is due for some more good football karma.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 12 and try again in Week 13.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas! Hope you enjoyed NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 12.
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