This article covers predicted NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 13 and top 5 upsets. Thursday Night football on Fox is right around the corner on 12/2/21 and that means Week 13 is starting. Time to continue with a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of Covid-19 impacts, no fans in the stands and a surprising post season.
2021 Week 12 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 correct thanks to Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, New England and Green Bay
Top 5 upsets that could happen = 1/5 thanks to Denver
Overall picks – 5/10 which is at the median
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 34/60 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 21/60 correct
Overall picks – 55/120 correct which is one standard deviation below the mean
Thursday Night game on Fox is an interesting matchup of two teams trying to get back on the winning track. Cowboys lost in OT to the Raiders in Week 13, due to a secondary collecting yellow flags instead of deflecting passes. Saints are still trying to find a post Drew Brees era QB to lead them on offense. Also mired in a bad four game losing streak. Taysom Hill finally gets the call to start at QB for this game and let’s see how he performs with having a new contract in place. Hill will be short handed due to most of his RBs being injured, so he’ll have to improvise during the entire game at the line of scrimmage. That’s one reason why he got a new contract.
Prediction: Cowboys are 6.0 point road favorites and will find a way to win this game by 7+ points
4. Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cincinnati
What is going on with the Chargers? They looked so polished during the first five weeks of the season and now they come into this matchup sputtering at 2-3 in their last five games. Opponents are scheming better for Justin Hebert’s passing attack and the lack of a true running game to generate first downs in the fourth quarter is non-existent. Bengals are sky high after completing a season sweep of the Steelers. Joe Mixon’s rebirth at RB has taken the pressure off Joe Burrow to find Ja’Marr Chase every snap he drops back to throw the ball. If the Bengals learn how to play 60 minutes of football for the stretch run in 2021, they will be a very tough out in the playoffs.
Prediction: Bengals are 3.0 point home favorites and will find a way to produce a 4 point victory during this score fest
3. Denver vs. Kansas City
Broncos are hanging around the AFC Wild Card race due to going 3-1 in their last four games, with impressive wins at Dallas and home against the Chargers. Injuries on the defensive side have crippled the Broncos on a weekly basis, but they are showing a new tenacity this season that has been missing since 2015. Chiefs have righted their ship with an impressive four game winning streak and suddenly their defense is playing stout on big third downs. Patrick Mahomes is always comfortable in tight games, and he plays better each week during the last two months of the season. Don’t forget that the Chiefs have beaten the Broncos eleven straight times and this game is at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday Night Football. I hope NBC gets Al Michaels back in the booth for this matchup.
Prediction: Chiefs are currently 9.5 point home favorites and will win by 10+ points
2. Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta
QBs call audibles 60%-80% of the time when they are at the line of scrimmage, due to the defensive front that they are facing. I’m doing exactly that with the next two matchups for Week 13. Buccaneers seem to have fixed their rusty transmission with two straight wins, and the rest of their 2021 schedule looks like a cakewalk. Time for Tom Brady and company to fine tune all three aspects of playing football and then see if they get the #1 or #2 seed in the NFC playoffs. Falcons have been frustrating to watch in 2021, stumbling to a 1-4 record at home and not finding more ways to get rookie TE Kyle Pitts TD receptions in the red zone. Due to the current betting line, I need to audible to the lock of the week.
Prediction: Buccaneers are currently a 11.0 point road favorite and will cover easily
1. Jacksonville vs. Los Angeles Rams
Ditto from the Buccaneers vs. Falcons game listed above. Jaguars have shown some growing pains and growth spurts under Urban Meyer. Trevor Lawrence has been a steadying personality in the huddle, despite injuries to the RB, WR and TE corps. Defense has shown some life, but that’s hard to do when playing from behind in every game. Rams were being hyped as the “all-in” team for Super Bowl 56 three weeks ago, and they have looked lifeless during a bad three game losing streak. Not sure if Matthew Stafford can carry this team during December and January. Thankfully this game will feel like a scrimmage for the Rams offense and they’ll try to get their NFC swagger back. Due to the current betting line, I need to audible to the second lock of the week.
Prediction: Rams are currently a 13.0 point home favorite and will cover easily
NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 13 for Upsets that might happen
5. Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh
Historically the Ravens vs. Steelers matchups need no hyping, since both squads typically deliver an old fashioned defensive slugfest with some timely offense. Despite QB Lamar Jackson throwing four interceptions against Cleveland in Week 12, the Ravens found a way to win 16-10. John Harbaugh has his squad right where he wants it heading into the winter months: explosive offense, stingy defense and reliable special teams. Steelers have been flat in a tie-loss-loss streak entering this game, and the Ben Roethelisberger QB era is quickly coming to a close. Ravens are currently a 4.5 point road favorite, but counting on the Steelers pride and home field crowd to propel them to the fourth quarter.
4. San Francisco vs. Seattle
This used to be the marque NFL matchup in 2011-2013, when Jim Harbaugh would match coaching wits with Pete Carroll. Times and faces have changed in the last 8-10 years for this game. 49ers have crawled back into the NFC Wild Card race with a timely three game winning streak. I was assuming that Kyle Shanahan had started to grow tried of coaching a mid-to-lower tier NFL team, and he’s rallied his squad off the mat. That’s impressive leadership in 2021. Seahawks are a mess across all three phases of the game and a team reboot looks inevitable due to being 3-8. Maybe Russell Wilson has finally realized that complaining about management and coaching staff has caused bad karma, leading to a fractured locker room. 49ers are 3.5 point road favorites, but this matchup always comes down to the final possession. Seahawks have a 50/50 chance to get their fourth victory.
3. New England vs. Buffalo
Welcome back to the 1990s glory days of the AFC East, when the Bills had to fend off a loaded Dolphins team and a young Patriots roster to play in four consecutive Super Bowls. Patriots are on a six game winning streak and play the Bills twice in roughly three calendar weeks. Hate to admit it, but Bill Belichick is coaching yet again at a very high level with a squad of brand new players. Keep waiting for the Bills to “walk through the door” to AFC East dominance, yet they continue to sputter every other week. The more consistent team in December and January will win the AFC East and most likely a #2 seed in the AFC playoffs. Sit back and enjoy this Monday Night game while listening to the bickering Manning brothers. Bills are currently 2.5 point home favorites, but don’t be surprised if the Patriots defense wins this game in the fourth quarter.
2. Minnesota vs. Detroit
Vikings have played eleven games in 2021 and ten of those have been decided by 8 points or less. That has to be an NFL record or is trending to be a record by the end of this season. Minnesota is on the fringe of the NFC Wild Card standings due to playing all opponents close, no matter where the game is held. Lions are still winless at 0-10-1 and seven of their games have been decided by 8 points or less. Still waiting for Jared Goff to morph back into his 2018 playing level, instead of what he’s shown in 2021 with the 30th ranked QBR (29.3). Hard for Goff to improve due to the shear amount of injuries the Lions have had this season. Vikings are 7.0 point home favorites and both teams like to play close games, so this one will come down to the last possession. Lions are due for a win, just don’t know if it’ll be in 2021, 2022, 2023 or 2024.
1. Indianapolis vs. Houston
Most weeks I have to choose the last potential upset game from a batch of non-appealing main courses. This week is a liver and onions matchup between the Colts and Texans. Colts were on a nice roll until losing to Tampa Bay in Week 12 by a touchdown. Indianapolis is in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race and holds several tiebreakers. If the Colts keep Carson Wentz on track, due to opposing teams focusing on Jonathan Taylor, they will be a tough out down the stretch run. Texans are a mess for too many reasons to list in this blog posting. Still don’t know how they beat the Titans in Week 11, but maybe the heavy rains were a factor. This game will be the return of Justin Reid from being benched, so maybe a blind squirrel can find two nuts in 2021, despite the Colts being 10.0 point road favorites.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 13 and try again in Week 14.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas! Hope you enjoyed NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 13.
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