This article covers predicted NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 14 and top 5 upsets. Thursday Night football on Fox is right around the corner on 12/9/21 and that means Week 14 is starting. Time to continue with a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of Covid-19 impacts, no fans in the stands and a surprising post season.
2021 Week 13 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 correct thanks to Dallas, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and the Los Angeles Rams
Top 5 upsets that could happen = 4/5 thanks to Pittsburgh, Seattle, New England and Detroit
Overall picks – 8/10 which is two standard deviations above the median
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 38/65 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 25/65 correct
Overall picks – 63/130 correct which is one standard deviation below the mean
Raiders come sputtering into this game losing four of their last five games and sitting at 6-6. The lack of a consistent running game (ranked #28 in the NFL by averaging 88 yards per game) has doomed all weekly momentum. Defense hasn’t been much better and is currently giving up 26.0 points per game. Chiefs have a ton of momentum heading into this matchup due to riding a five game winning streak. Three of the five remaining games for Kansas City are against potential AFC playoff teams, which will keep the Chiefs focused to the last weekend of the season. Andy Reid and OC Eric Bieniemy will keep the gas pedal down in this game, due to the bad home loss they had to the Raiders in Week 5 of the 2020 season.
Prediction: Chiefs are 9.5 point home favorites and will win this game by 6 points
4. Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay
Bills head coach Sean McDermott still won’t give any credit to the offensive game plan that Bill Belichick and the Patriots executed during a 14-10 win on 12/6/21. I guess he really wants the credit to go to the wind and snow storm that effected the entire game for both teams. Bills have lost their mojo badly over the last seven weeks and need to figure out quickly, if they simply want to make or try to advance in the AFC playoffs. Scoring more points on offense would help. Buccaneers are now shifting into second gear after three straight wins and scoring 30+ points in each of those contests. I wonder if McDermott will still have nightmares of Belichick in his sleep, after facing a red hot Tom Brady this week. Must watch game for 60 minutes to see if the Bills answer the bell, due to their season hanging by a thread.
Prediction: Buccaneers are 3.5 point home favorites and will win by 4 points
3. Chicago vs. Green Bay
The NFL’s most played rivalry dating back to 1921, with the Packers currently holding a 102-95-6 series lead over the Bears. I’ve picked on the Bears coaching staff this season due to how they improperly handled rookie QB Justin Fields. Horrible play calling week after week, six losses by 10+ points each, no player or team growth since Week 1. I could go on and on, but that’s enough for now. Packers are clicking at 9-3, with the most disgruntled employee in the NFL, QB Aaron Rodgers, playing at a high level. Matt LaFleur hasn’t received any media grief this season due to letting Rodgers and WR Davante Adams simply play their games as if 2021 is the Last Dance. Enjoy this Green Bay show while it lasts, since both players will be with different teams in 2022. Wear earplugs for the NBC television broadcast due to Cris Collinsworth.
Prediction: Packers are currently 12.5 point home favorites and will cover easily. Rodgers continues to own the Bears.
2. Dallas vs. Washington
Old fashioned NFC East battle between two franchises that don’t like each other. Rivalry started in 1960 and the Cowboys currently lead the series 73-47-2. A depleted Dallas roster and coaching staff gutted out a 27-17 victory over the Saints in Week 13, and are now healthy for the stretch run. Helps that four of the five remaining opponents of the Cowboys won’t make the NFC playoffs, which translates to a cake walk. Washington enters this game at 6-6 due to riding an impressive four game winning streak. Head coach Ron Rivera gets the most effort out of his squad, due to teaching fundamentals and not caring about style points, just winning games. QB Taylor Heinicke continues to blossom as the Washington QB, but their defense is banged up and gives up a ton of yards on critical downs. There will be a lot of traveling Cowboys fans in the nation’s capital for this game.
Prediction: Cowboys are currently a 4.5 point road favorite and will win by 7+ points
1. New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Time to audible to the lock of the week. Giants enter this game with a lose-win pattern over the past seven games. New York is a lower tier offense due to averaging 311.8 yards per game. Defense isn’t much better due to giving up 365.2 yards per game and 22.8 points. Something has to give eventually, but all signs point to head coach Joe Judge staying for the 2022 season. Giants need a refresh as bad as the Bears do. Chargers come into this matchup with brimming confidence, due to a big road win at Cincinnati in Week 13 (41-22). Three key players (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Chris Harris Jr.) were all placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list this week. Being short handed won’t slow down Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense against the swiss cheese Giants secondary.
Prediction: Chargers are currently a 10.0 point home favorite and will cover easily
NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 14 for Upsets that might happen
5. Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Thursday Night Football on Fox should be an entertaining game between two teams fighting for their NFL playoff lives. Steelers beat the Ravens in Week 13 due to a renewed focus after hearing rumors that 2021 will be QB Ben Roethlisberger’s final season. Not to mention the Ravens rolled the dice to win the game on a two point conversion due to several key players being injured. Vikings love playing close games and their football karma might be changing, due to two close losses to the 49ers and Lions. Thankfully this game is being played indoors at the “Death Star” stadium in Minneapolis and it’ll be decided during the final possession. Vikings are 3.5 point home favorites, but the Steelers will be playing with a purpose.
4. Baltimore vs. Cleveland
Key AFC North matchup that will have long reaching playoff implications for the winning team. Ravens are literally a M*A*S*H unit in the secondary, with five players on IR and four listed as questionable. Typically when the Ravens are short handed and their outlook is bleak, John Harbaugh rallies his squad better than anyone and they go on a winning streak. In a scheduling quirk, the Browns lost to Baltimore in Week 12 by a close score (16-10), had a bye week in Week 13 and now play the Ravens again in Week 14. That feels like the Covid-19 bubble schedule used by the NHL and NBA in 2020-2021. Browns are currently in a lose-win pattern for their last seven games and they have a difficult time staying focused for 60 minutes of football. Cleveland is a current 2.5 point home favorite, but that line won’t matter when Lamar Jackson takes over in the fourth quarter for a tired Ravens team.
3. San Francisco vs. Cincinnati
49ers are trying to forget about their Week 13 loss at Seattle (30-23), due to a suddenly rejuvenated Seahawks DL that put pressure on QB Jimmy Garoppolo. San Francisco is still hanging onto the #7 slot in the NFC playoffs, but will need to find a way to beat three potential playoff teams during the final five weeks of the 2021 season. Best way to do that is to get WR Deebo Samuel as many catches as possible, when he’s healthy. Bengals are still learning how to be consistent on a weekly basis. Have stumbled to a 3-3 record at home and need to avoid falling behind in games early, and then trying to play catch up for 45 minutes. Bengals fan are wondering “what if” Ja’Marr Chase catches a long touchdown pass early against the Chargers in Week 13, instead of batting the ball off his hands and creating a turnover. 49ers are currently a 1.5 point road favorite and its simply time for the Bengals to take care of business on home turf.
2. Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona
Rams looked like world beaters in Week 13, but most teams do when they play Jacksonville in 2021. RB Sony Michel had a big game against the Jaguars (rushing for 125 yards and 1 TD). Michel’s fresh legs could be a game changer for the Rams offense during the last month of the season. Seems like yesterday that Michel was leading the Georgia Bulldogs to the 2018 national title and then…..Alabama won it. Was it groundhog day during the SEC Championship Game on 12/4/21? Just seems like a trend. Cardinals enter this game at 10-2 with a healthy QB Kyler Murray and an emerging star at RB, James Connor. Cardinals beat the Rams badly in Week 4 (37-20) and will be looking for the season sweep. I’m slowly believing that all of the Rams trade acquisitions will start to pay off on a game by game basis. Arizona is currently favored by 2.5 points at home, but the Rams will make this interesting for 60 minutes and steal a big road win.
1. Atlanta vs. Carolina
Two 5-7 teams that most fans don’t want to watch this late in the 2021 season. Falcons are trying to show QB Matt Ryan that 2022 will be the bounce back season for the franchise. Ryan might be losing his patience due to the shear amount of interceptions and fumbles he’s been causing lately. Panthers officially lost Christian McCaffrey for the season on 11/29/21 and have Cam Newton back as their starting QB. Now this is really a groundhog day game, since the last time I remember seeing Newton, he was storming out of his Super Bowl 50 post game interview. Dazed and confused was the best way to describe Newton during Peyton Manning’s last game in the NFL. My apologies for digressing, Carolina beat Atlanta in Week 8, 19-13. Carolina is currently a 2.5 point home favorite, but the Falcons will get some OL protection for Matt Ryan and he’ll make enough plays to get a road win.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 14 and try again in Week 15.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas! Hope you enjoyed NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 14.
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