This article covers predicted NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 15 and top 5 upsets. Thursday Night football on Fox is right around the corner on 12/16/21 and that means Week 15 is starting. Time to continue with a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of Covid-19 impacts, no fans in the stands and a surprising post season.
2021 Week 14 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 5/5 correct thanks to Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Dallas and the Los Angeles Chargers
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 2/5 thanks to Atlanta and the Los Angeles Rams
Overall picks – 7/10 which is one standard deviation above the median
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 43/70 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 27/70 correct
Overall picks – 70/140 correct which is right at the mean
NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 15
5. Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Thursday night game on Fox is an AFC West matchup, with the Chiefs (9-4) visiting the Chargers (8-5). Chiefs are on a six game winning streak, with three of those wins against AFC West opponents. Seems like a distant memory that the Chiefs were sitting at 3-4 in late October 2021, had no team defense and the offense was sloppy in the red zone. Opportunistic defense and efficient offense has put Patrick Mahomes and company in the running for the AFC #1 playoff seed. Chargers have woken up after a bad loss to Denver in Week 12, with a two game winning streak over the Bengals and Giants. Beat the Chiefs in Week 3 (30-24), when Justin Herbert looked like an MVP candidate. Troy Aikman and Joe Buck will enjoy calling this game, since both teams are most likely headed to the playoffs.
Prediction: Chiefs are 3.0 point road favorites and will win this game by 4 points
4. Seattle vs. Los Angeles Rams
Rematch of the 2020 NFC Wildcard game, won by the Rams 30-20. Rams won at Seattle in Week 5 (26-17), when QB Russell Wilson badly injured his finger. Seahawks are on a modest two game winning streak with victories over the 49ers and lowly Texans. Seattle’s offensive line will have a long day on the road against the Rams top-tier defensive line personnel. Rams are coming off their biggest win of the season over the Cardinals in Week 14. Rams’ trades will continue to pay off on a week-by-week basis as they try to keep pace with Arizona in the NFC West. If RB Sony Michel continues to get 20+ carries each week, the Rams confidence level will continue to rise.
Prediction: Rams are 4.5 point home favorites and will win by 9+ points
3. Green Bay vs. Baltimore
Packers come into this game having won three out of their last four games. QB Aaron Rodgers threw four TD’s in their Week 14 win over Chicago and WR Davante Adams caught two TDs. Only thing hampering Green Bay this month is Rodgers’ fractured pinky toe, which is limiting his practice time. Packers are currently in line for either the #1 or #2 seed in the NFC playoffs. Ravens have lost back-to-back games to the Steelers and Browns, due to their secondary being decimated with injuries. All world QB Lamar Jackson exited in the second quarter during Week 14, with an ankle injury. Jackson looked like the 2019 MVP during the first half of the 2021 season and now he can’t hit a wide open receiver if his life depended on it. Losing confidence at the starting QB position is usually the first sign of a team that will regress quickly. John Harbaugh has his work cut out for him during the last four weeks of this season.
Prediction: Packers are currently 5.5 point road favorites and will win by 7 points
2. New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay
Sunday night game on NBC is a rematch of the Week 7 matchup, which the Saints won 36-27 in New Orleans. Buccaneers QB Tom Brady threw two costly interceptions in that game, including a pick six to seal the outcome in the final two minutes. Saints stopped a five game losing streak in Week 14 by beating the Jets (30-9). Wasn’t a coincidence that New Orleans won in Alvin Kamara’s first game back since early November 2021. Kamara will have to shoulder the Saints offensive load, until Taysom Hill gets comfortable as the starting QB for the remainder of the season. Brady looks like the runaway 2021 NFL MVP (4134 passing yards, 36 passing TDs, 2 rushing TDs) heading into Week 15. Buccaneers are 6-0 at home, security blanket Rob Gronkowski is back at TE the last two games, and the offense is clicking. Tampa Bay pulled their foot off the gas pedal during the second half in Week 14, against Buffalo and won in OT. Buccaneers are just fine tuning all of their game plans and personnel.
Prediction: Buccaneers are currently a 11.0 point home favorite and will win by 10 points
1. Dallas vs. New York Giants
Time to audible to the lock of the week. Cowboys are riding a two game road winning streak with wins at New Orleans and at Washington. Dallas has a robust 5-2 road record, with a relatively easy schedule to finish out the season. QB Dak Prescott is still the leading NFL Comeback Player of the Year candidate (3381 yards passing, 24 passing TDs, 106 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD). CeeDee Lamb has risen to the #1 WR slot, but I’m still waiting for Amari Cooper to take over games when the stakes are high. Giants are still a mess in the front office, to the coaching staff and unfortunately that translates to the players not being able to execute well in games. New York currently ranks 25th on offense (312.2 yards per game) and 26th on defense (369.7 yards per game). Now that’s statistical efficiency! Five straight losing seasons should lead to a shakeup within the Giants management structure during the off-season, but that won’t happen.
Prediction: Cowboys are currently a 10.5 point road favorite and will cover easily
NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 15 for Upsets that might happen
5. New England vs. Indianapolis
Patriots are red hot due to being on a seven game winning streak. NFL talking heads are still discussing how they won at Buffalo in Week 13, by only completing two-of-three passes due to the severe winter weather. New England’s offense is considered “average” due to gaining 346.5 yards per game (ranked 18th in the NFL). Patriots defense only allows 15.4 points and 310.0 yards per game. That enables New England to flip field position due to turnovers and press their opponents into making mistakes. Colts are efficient on offense (28.5 points per game) and have found a way to cobble a defensive unit together (21.8 points allowed). QB Carson Wentz compliments the Colts rising star, RB Jonathan Taylor, and both are learning a ton from head coach Frank Reich. Indianapolis is a team to watch for in 2022. Colts are 2.0 point home favorites, but the Patriots will win another big road game.
4. Tennessee vs. Pittsburgh
Talk about two teams that have stutter stepped their way through the second half of the 2021 season. Titans looked like a Super Bowl team when they beat Buffalo, Kansas City, Indianapolis and Rams in successive weeks. That herculean effort was followed up with bad back-to-back losses to Houston and New England. Tennessee is still tracking to be a #1-#3 seed in the AFC playoffs. Titans become an unbeatable heavyweight if/when RB Derrick Henry returns from the IR list. Steelers have played too many dramatic games over the past month. Maybe they want QB Ben Roethlisberger to head into retirement, with all of the terrible towel fans yelling “encore.” Pittsburgh needs to run the no huddle offense the entire game. Keep handing the ball to rookie RB Najee Harris and teach Chase Claypool not to celebrate after making a fourth down catch. If the Steelers keep their game plan simple, they have a chance to hang with the 1.0 point favored Titans this weekend.
3. Cincinnati vs. Denver
Both teams enter this game at 7-6. Bengals are in a crowded AFC North Division race and the Broncos are trying to stay in the AFC Wildcard picture. Cincinnati finishes the season against four teams that all might make the playoffs. There are no layups for the Bengals during the 2021 stretch run. Broncos are inconsistent from week to week due to still tinkering with their offensive approach. Stick to the power running game, and then QB Teddy Bridgewater can utilize play action pass to open up the field. Safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was signed to the Broncos practice squad this week. Last time I remembering seeing Clinton-Dix on television, was during the 2014 NFC Championship Game between Green Bay and Seattle. Clinton-Dix was a rookie and intercepted QB Russell Wilson twice, leading the Packers to Super Bowl 49…….whoops the largest and strangest momentum swing in NFL playoff history sent the Seahawks to Glendale, AZ to play the Patriots. Hoping Clinton-Dix isn’t a bad luck charm, since the Broncos are building towards 2022. Bengals are 2.5 point road underdogs, but they’ll win this game to keep pace in the AFC playoff seeding.
2. Washington vs. Philadelphia
Both teams enter this matchup at 6-7 and in the thick of the NFC Wildcard race. Washington would be in the playoffs if the season had ended in Week 14. Clearly shows head coach Ron Rivera uses the motivational saying, “it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish.” Philadelphia has been up and down the entire season, causing Eagles fans to wonder what’s going to happen at kickoff. Backup QB Gardner Minshew has provided a spark while filling in for injured starter Jalen Hurts. Eagles have cakewalk matchups for the last four weeks of the regular season, which translates to them making the NFC playoffs as the #7 seed. Just need to stay healthy and get Hurts back on the field to see what the offense can truly do in a big game situation. Philadelphia is currently a 9.5 point home favorite, but they won’t cover that spread due to Washington playing a ball control offense. This is also the time of year when the NFC East reverts back to playbooks from the early 1980s.
1. Minnesota vs. Chicago
Monday Night game has the Vikings (6-7), traveling to Soldier Field to play the Bears (4-9). Minnesota started their banged up RB Dalvin Cook in Week 14 against Pittsburgh, and he had a monster game (27 carries, 205 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs). If Cook continues to get healthy, the Vikings will make some noise during the last month of the season. Bears played their best 30 minutes of football during the first half against Green Bay in Week 14. Chris Collinsworth was going gaga over rookie QB Justin Fields during the Sunday Night NBC tv broadcast. It would be cool if the Bears coaching staff let Fields improvise over the last four games to see how athletically gifted he really is. All three coordinators for the Bears are now in Covid-19 protocols, so Fields might get to run a wide open offense this week. Vikings are a 4.5 point road favorite, but this will be a tight game and the Bears may steal a win at home.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 15 and try again in Week 16.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas! Hope you enjoyed NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 15.
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