This article covers predicted NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 16 and top 5 upsets. Thursday Night football on NFL Network is right around the corner on 12/23/21 and that means Week 16 is starting. Time to continue with a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of Covid-19 impacts, no fans in the stands and a surprising post season.
2021 Week 15 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 correct thanks to Kansas City, Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay and Dallas
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 2/5 thanks to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati
Overall picks – 6/10 which is one standard deviation above the median
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 47/75 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen -29/75 correct
Overall picks – 76/150 correct which is right at the mean
NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 16
5. Cleveland vs. Green Bay
Christmas afternoon game on Fox is an interesting matchup with the Browns fighting for their playoff life against the current #1 seed in the NFC (Packers). Cleveland lost to the Raiders in Week 15, due to not being able to stop Derek Carr on the final drive to the game winning field goal. No pass rush led to holes in the secondary that were exploited during the entire fourth quarter. In a game that was statistically tight for 60 minutes, the Packers nipped Baltimore on the road in Week 15 (31-30). John Harbaugh tried to win another game with a two point conversion instead of playing for overtime, and it backfired again. Aaron Rodgers had a quiet 286 passing yards and 3 TD game to help Green Bay win their third straight game. Rodgers will have a field day against the Browns secondary, which will show how much stronger the NFC is compared to the AFC this season.
Prediction: Packers are 7.5 point home favorites and will win this game by 10 points
4. Baltimore vs. Cincinnati
Even though the talking heads are having a field day with John Harbaugh unsuccessfully trying two point conversions in Weeks 13 and 15, he’s still coaching his squad well on a daily basis. If the Ravens had won both of those games in OT, they’d be strolling to the AFC North title and figuring out who their Wild Card opponent would be. Instead they are in a dogfight and why makes thing easy in 2021? The harder the better is the new NFL motto. Bengals have woken up due to the resurgence of Joe Mixon’s running game and Joe Burrow is taking care of the football. Cincinnati is still a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type of team from week to week, but they seem to be playing loose and are trending up. Team that wins this game has a leg up on the AFC North with two weeks to go in the regular season.
Prediction: Bengals are 3.0 point home favorites and will win by 3 points
3. Buffalo vs. New England
Bills head coach Sean McDermott is still complaining that Bill Belichick didn’t outcoach him in Week 14, despite Mac Jones only completing 2 out of 3 passes during the Patriots win. Something changed in Week 15 for Buffalo, when they pushed the Buccaneers into OT due to a second half of offensive firepower. QB Josh Allen found that he could run for significant chunks of yardage and the Tampa Bay zone defense became Swiss cheese. Can the Bills bring that offense to Gillette Stadium? New England had won seven games in a row, until a hungry and physical Colts team showed that a power running game (Jonathan Taylor), and a bend but don’t break defense is a formula for winning in Week 15. Belichick and crew are usually more ready for rematches than any other franchise in the NFL, so the Bills may have to empty the playbook to have a chance of winning on the road.
Prediction: Patriots are currently 2.5 point home favorites and will win by 4 points
2. Pittsburgh vs. Kansas City
Steelers showed some onions in Week 15 by finding a way to beat Tennessee 19-13. Four turnovers will always help an offense that is struggling to score points. Pittsburgh’s OL will have their hands full with the suddenly fundamentally sound Chiefs defense. QB Ben Roethlisberger will have to extend numerous plays with his feet to keep the Steelers in the game. Kansas City is riding a seven game winning streak after beating the Los Angeles Chargers on the road, in OT in Week 15. Not only is the defense playing well, the offense is now clicking due to getting Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, both over 1,000 receiving yards for the season. Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy is calling successful plays from the deepest playbook in the NFL. Be afraid AFC, be very afraid of the Chiefs again for the fourth straight season.
Prediction: Chiefs are currently a 8.5 point home favorite and will win by 6 points
1. Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston
Time to audible to the lock of the week. Chargers are currently the #6 seed in the AFC playoffs, with too many scenarios that could cause them to move as high as #2 or miss the playoffs entirely. That statistical analysis should cause first year head coach, Brandon Staley, to think about going for fourth down conversions. Chargers lost to the Chiefs in OT in Week 15 and it was an instant classic. Staley tried to extend drives on fourth down a total of five times, with two successful conversions. Take the points in December and January and ride your defense. Gambling is for road trips against the Raiders. What can I say about the Texans? Two wins against the lowly Jaguars, a lucky win due to mother nature over the Titans and the Deshawn Watson legal saga continues. Chargers will enjoy a stress free victory and get their offensive mojo back.
Prediction: Chargers are currently a 10.0 point road favorite and will cover easily
NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 16 for Upsets that might happen
5. San Francisco vs. Tennessee
Thursday night game on NFL Network is a marque NFC vs. AFC matchup. 49ers enter this game with a modest two game winning streak, with an offense that is suddenly alive and well by highlighting Deebo Samuel. QB Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t looking over his shoulder yet at Trey Lance, and head coach Kyle Shanahan has kept San Francisco focused on peaking at the right time. Titans have lost three out of their last four games and were bitten by the turnover bug in Week 15 against Pittsburgh. Currently sitting at the #3 AFC playoff slot and having the Colts breathing down their back, should provide motivation for head coach Mike Vrabel to keep the gas pedal down with his play calling. Enjoy all 60 minutes of this game, to see if the AFC is a paper tiger or a hidden prize fighter. 49ers are 3.0 point road favorites, but the Titans always play well at home.
4. Indianapolis vs. Arizona
Another AFC vs. NFC matchup between two teams seemingly heading in opposite directions for the Christmas night game on the NFL Network. Colts played inspired football in their Week 15 victory over the Patriots (27-17). Jonathan Taylor is now officially the best RB in the NFL and he’s just getting warmed up for the stretch run into January 2022. QB Carson Wentz may sneak into the NFL Comeback Player of the Year conversation, if he leads Indianapolis to the playoffs. Cardinals have dropped two games in a row to the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit. Rams loss was to a better team, but the Lions loss dropped Arizona to the #4 NFC seed. Maybe just a coincidence that the Cardinals have a losing streak due to rumors that head coach Kliff Kingsbury was being wooed by several big name college programs. Kyler Murray has to rekindle his top tier QB play and get the ball into James Connor’s hands more often to get on the winning track. Arizona is currently a 1.0 point home favorite, but the Colts will make their game plan very uncomfortable for 60 minutes.
3. Denver vs. Las Vegas
Old fashioned AFC West matchup between two teams that don’t like each other. Broncos are still emotionally drained from the sudden passing of WR Demaryius Thomas prior to Week 14. QB Teddy Bridgewater is currently in concussion protocol and won’t play. Time to watch Drew Lock turn the ball over every other possession. I hope John Elway is paying attention to Kenny Pickett at Pitt for the 2022 NFL Draft. Raiders got a badly needed walk-off win at Cleveland in Week 15 to keep their playoff hopes on life support. The lack of a consistent running game and not developing any WRs or TEs after Hunter Renfrow, will continue to doom the Raiders in the regular season and the post season if they make it that far. Current betting line is even, but the Raiders will be favored by kickoff due to playing at home. Maybe Lock and the Broncos offense will focus on their power running game and hang around into the fourth quarter.
2. Miami vs. New Orleans
Most intriguing matchup of the week happens in the Monday night game. Manning brothers won’t be calling the game on ESPN2. Brian Griese, Louis Riddick and Steve Levy will have fun trying to determine which QB will start for the Saints due to Covid impacts. New Orleans is a trendy team right now due to sweeping the Buccaneers with two super defensive efforts to stymy Tom Brady and company. That overshadows their inefficient offense, unless Alvin Kamara runs wild for multiple TDs. Dolphins are a forgotten team at 7-7, but they play the game the right way for head coach Brian Flores. Miami’s defense is underrated and they have two budding superstars catching the football (WR Jayleen Waddle, TE Mike Gesicki). Dolphins are currently 1.5 point road favorites, but that line will most likely shift towards the Saints. I’m sticking with the Dolphins for a big road win and being a spoiler down the stretch run in 2021.
1. Detroit vs. Atlanta
I’ve been drinking the Dan Campbell Kool-Aid since his off-season hire as the Lions head coach. After nipping the Vikings in Week 13 to get their first victory, the Lions throttled the Cardinals in Week 15. Campbell’s players have been playing hard all season and their efforts are now being rewarded. Football karma is a real thing, even though ESPN did significant research to dispel momentum in all sporting events this week. Falcons haven’t recovered any of their mid-season momentum since a bad loss to New England in Week 11 (25-0). Matt Ryan might be playing out his last three games in Atlanta and hopefully he keeps his head up. Falcons are currently 5.5 point home favorites, but they will be pushed for four quarters on both sides of the line of scrimmage by the Lions.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 16 and try again in Week 17.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas! Hope you enjoyed NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 16.
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