This article covers predicted NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 17 and top 5 upsets. Fifteen games are kicking off on 1/2/22 and that means Week 17 is starting. Time to continue with a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of Covid-19 impacts, no fans in the stands and a surprising post season.
2021 Week 16 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 3/5 correct thanks to Green Bay, Cincinnati and Kansas City
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 3/5 thanks to Tennessee, Indianapolis and Miami
Overall picks – 6/10 which is one standard deviation above the median
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 50/80 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen -32/80 correct
Overall picks – 82/160 correct which is right at the mean
NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 17
5. Atlanta vs. Buffalo
Time to audible to the lock of the week. Falcons have been inconsistent the entire season but play much better on the road (5-3) that at home (2-5). QB Matt Ryan has had a respectable season (3555 passing yards, 16 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD), but Atlanta is definitely a team that needs a rebuild in 2022. Falcons have never been a productive team playing outdoors in the elements, with the temperature at kickoff to be in the low 20s. Bills did some internalizing after their Week 13 loss on the road to New England. Since that game, Buffalo has regained their offensive swagger from late in 2020 and they are playing with a ton of confidence. Last two games of the 2021 season (Atlanta, New York Jets) should allow the Bills to get healthy and fine tune their offensive playbook for a deep AFC playoff run.
Prediction: Bills are 14.5 point home favorites and will win this game by 17 points
4. Las Vegas vs. Indianapolis
Matchup of two AFC teams battling for playoff positioning. Raiders enter this game at 8-7 after two close wins over Cleveland and Denver. Currently on the fringe of the AFC Wildcard race but very much alive due to being above 0.500. QB Derek Carr has quietly eclipsed the 4000 yard passing mark for the season and his leadership skills in the huddle have improved by a factor of ten. Lack of a consistent running game will continue to haunt Las Vegas through Week 18. Colts are cruising along at 9-7 due to a three game winning streak and currently the #5 seed in the AFC. No team wants to play them right now. QB Carson Wentz should be cleared to start this game early on Sunday morning and he’ll have a relatively easy time picking apart the Raiders secondary.
Prediction: Colts are 8.5 point home favorites and will win by 10 points
3. Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore
NFC vs. AFC matchup from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. Rams are riding a four game winning streak, which has helped them leapfrog the suddenly fading Cardinals into first place in the NFC West. Rams can continue this hot streak if they keep handing the ball to their fresh and healthy RB Sony Michel. Michel is averaging 106 yards per game during the four game winning streak, and his big play ability is opening the field up for QB Matthew Stafford to make deep throws. Expect 20+ carries for Michel the rest of the regular season and then game planning will take over in the playoffs. Ravens limp into this contest with a four game losing streak, but they are only one game back in the tight AFC North division. QB Lamar Jackson will be a game time decision due to his injured ankle. Whether or not Jackson plays, the Ravens offense will feature a lot of passes to TE Mark Andrews, so that he can set the Baltimore franchise single season receiving yards record.
Prediction: Rams are currently 6.0 point road favorites and will win by 7 points
2. Arizona vs. Dallas
Cardinals are fading at the wrong time of the season with three straight losses. Arizona has already clinched an NFC playoff spot, but if they continue to trend down, rumors will start about head coach Kliff Kingsbury being on the hot seat. Get the ball in RB James Connor’s hands and things will start to fall into place for the Cardinals offense. Cowboys enter this game on a four game winning streak due to feasting on the inept NFC East teams. Dallas’ offensive line is still inconsistent blocking for RB Ezekiel Elliott, but the WR and TE corps are catching plenty of passes due to the mobility of QB Dak Prescott. Several big name talking heads are already calling the Cowboys to be the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs. Pump the brakes, Cowboys always choke in the playoffs, and they’ll do it again this season. Write that down.
Prediction: Cowboys are currently a 6.5 point home favorite and will win by 3 points
1. Minnesota vs. Green Bay
Old fashioned NFC Norris matchup between the Vikings and Packers. Minnesota is snake bit in 2021, with 14 of their 15 games being decided by 8 points or less. Beat the Packers at home in Week 11 thanks to a walk off field goal (34-31). That game was air tight based on team and individual player game statistics. Green Bay is clicking due to a four game winning streak and are the current #1 seed in the NFC playoffs. QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Davante Adams continue to treat the 2021 season as The Last Dance, and the last two-to-three chapters are going to be memorable. Enjoy this high level of team play while it lasts, since the window closes quickly.
Prediction: Packers are currently a 13.0 point home favorite and will win by 10 points
NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 17 for Upsets that might happen
5. Denver vs. Los Angeles Chargers
AFC West rematch from Week 13 when the Broncos won at home 28-13. Denver continues to flip a coin on a weekly basis if they are going to be a power running team or a play action passing team. Stick with the run, open up the downfield reads for passing on early downs by QB Drew Lock and see what happens. Head coach Vic Fangio is on the hot seat and I hope he’ll stop campaigning to return in 2022. Focus on coaching and getting the team looking forward. Chargers are coming off a two game losing streak. Lost an entertaining game to Kansas City in Week 15 (34-28) and then a horrible team performance in Week 16 against Houston (41-29). Currently on the fringe of the AFC Wildcard race, needing two wins and help from other teams. Chargers are 7.5 point home favorites, but if the Broncos are still in this game late in the third quarter, tune in.
4. Kansas City vs. Cincinnati
Best game of the Week 17 NFL schedule and huge implications in the AFC playoff race. Chiefs are cruising along with an eight game winning streak and the current #1 seed in the AFC playoffs. Only blemish heading into this game is RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been ruled out with an injured shoulder. QB Patrick Mahomes may have to carry the Kansas City offense more than usual, but they’ll adjust to the scoreboard. Bengals are riding a modest two game winning streak and currently lead the tight AFC North division. Not sure if he’ll get any votes for NFL Comeback Player of the Year, but QB Joe Burrow (4165 passing yards, 30 passing TDs) has had an impressive season after a significant knee injury in 2020. Second year WR Tee Higgins (1029 receiving yards, 6 TDs) might be the glue guy of the Cincinnati roster, due to opening up the running game and Ja’Marr Chase on deep patterns. Chiefs are 3.5 point road favorites, but the Bengals play well in the jungle and the home crowd advantage will play a factor in the fourth quarter.
3. Miami vs. Tennessee
Dolphins have to be the comeback team of the 2021 season, due to having a seven game losing streak followed by a seven game winning streak. Head coach Brian Flores has his squad in almost perfect position to make the AFC Wildcard playoff round. Rookie WR Jaylen Waddle (941 receiving yards, 5 TDs) highlight a deep Miami receiving corps. Dolphins have a bend but don’t break defense, which typically doesn’t allow many key third down conversions for their opponents. Titans enter this game at 10-5 and the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs. Have played inconsistently over the past five weeks, but their personnel and game planning will do well in the post season. Stud RB Derrick Henry is trending to be back in Week 18. This game will be a defensive battle, based on field position and turnovers. Titans are 3.0 point home favorites, but the Dolphins have a chance to extend their impressive winning streak. Tune in to see an AFC playoff preview.
2. Philadelphia vs. Washington
Annual late season NFC East game between two teams heading in opposite directions. Eagles are 8-7 and have a modest three game winning streak. QB Jalen Hurts continues to show that he belongs under center at the NFL level. Statistically the Eagles are a 50/50 split in gaining rushing and passing yards from the line of scrimmage. Need to wint the last two weeks of the regular season to hold onto the #7 seed in the NFC playoffs. Washington limps into this game at 6-9 and a three game losing streak. Cowboys blew them out in Week 16 (56-14), which led to the DL players getting into a fist fight on the sidelines. Head coach Ron Rivera and his squad were a trendy pick at the beginning of the season to make some noise in the NFC. Now they have to focus on playing the spoiler role. Eagles are 6.0 point road favorites, but weird things happen at FedEx Field in this rivalry. Washington should push the Eagles into the fourth quarter if they aren’t bickering on the bench.
1. Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh
What was the marquee AFC matchup late in the 2020 season and playoffs has turned into a fringe game for the Browns and Steelers trying to stay in the AFC Wildcard race. Cleveland has perfected how to not close out tight games in 2021. After being an ESPN highlights staple in 2020, Baker Mayfield has slipped down the ranks in 2021, even though he has been playing hurt most of the season. Pittsburgh still doesn’t change their offense to the shotgun formation until the second half of games . Every single game they are playing catchup on the scoreboard and the squad is mentally drained. QB Ben Roethlisberger will likely be playing his last home game at Heinz Field on Monday night. Roethlisberger has played for eighteen seasons, bridged the head coaching change from Bill Cowher to Mike Tomlin, and won two Super Bowls (40 and 43). Next stop will be Canton, OH for the guy who kept big plays alive with his legs and feet. Browns are currently favored by 3.5 points on the road, but the Steelers and Big Ben will feed off the home field crowd.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 17 and try again in Week 18.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas! Hope you enjoyed NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 17.
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Great content! Keep up the good work!
Thanks for the positive feedback. Enjoy the Week 18 NFL games.