This article covers predicted NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 18 and top 5 upsets. Two games are kicking off on 1/8/22 and that means Week 18 is starting. Time to continue with a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of Covid-19 impacts, no fans in the stands and a surprising post season.
2021 Week 17 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 3/5 correct thanks to Buffalo, Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 2/5 thanks to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh
Overall picks – 5/10 which is right at the mean
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 53/85 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen -34/85 correct
Overall picks – 87/170 correct which is right at the mean
NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 18
5. Kansas City vs. Denver
Afternoon game on Saturday is an AFC West matchup that has playoff seeding implications for the Chiefs. Broncos are already eliminated from the AFC playoffs. Kansas City needs to win this game and have Tennessee lose to Houston on Sunday to earn the AFC #1 seed. Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will use Week 18 to fine tune their passing playbook and get ready for a long and grinding run through the AFC playoff bracket. Denver will complete a season that started at 3-0, only to sputter to 4-9 down the stretch. QB Drew Lock will get another start due to Teddy Bridgewater being on the IL with a concussion. Only debate in Denver next week will be if head coach Vic Fangio is allowed to complete his contract in 2022. Don’t count on it if you’re a Broncos fan.
Prediction: Chiefs are 10.5 point road favorites and will win this game by 14 points
4. Green Bay vs. Detroit
Packers have already cliched the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs. Lions were eliminated from the playoffs in Week 2 of the 2021 season. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers will play in this game based on news reports this week, but will probably be removed at halftime or sooner. Rodgers has had another MVP caliber season with 3977 passing yards, 35 passing TDs and only 4 interceptions. WR Davante Adams is currently at 1498 receiving yards and 11 TDs. Continue to enjoy this version of The Last Dance, since it’ll be closing in a month or less. Detroit played hard the entire season for new head coach Dan Campbell. QB Jared Goff has eclipsed 3000+ passing yards, but hasn’t looked comfortable all season. Lions have been a middle tier team on offense based on running and passing yards, but they need to learn how to score points to become competitive again. Keep that Barry Sanders throwback jersey for two more seasons if you’re a Lions fan.
Prediction: Packers are 3.5 point road favorites and will win by 7+ points
3. New England vs. Miami
AFC East matchup for the playoff bound Patriots vs. the eliminated Dolphins. New England snapped their two game losing streak in Week 17 by throttling Jacksonville (50-10). Currently sitting as the #5 seed in the AFC playoffs and are most likely on a collision course with Buffalo in the Wild Card round. Rookie QB Mac Jones has been as good as advertised with 3540 passing yards, 21 passing TDs and an innate ability to lead the huddle. If Jones stays healthy, he’ll be in New England for at least a decade. Dolphins came crashing back down to earth in Week 17 by losing badly to Tennessee (34-3). Miami used tandem QBs (Tua Tagovailoa, Jacoby Brissett) and a deep receiving corps (5 WRs and 3 TEs), to be in the middle tier of team passing offensive statistics in the NFL. Need to find some new RBs to compliment Myles Gaskin, since he’s not built to carry the offensive load at 5′-10″ and 194 lbs. Brian Flores is a rising star as a head coach and Miami needs to hold onto him contractually for the long term.
Prediction: Patriots are currently 6.5 point road favorites and will win by 7 points
2. Dallas vs. Philadelphia
Saturday night game is an NFC East matchup with two playoff bound teams. Cowboys are currently sitting at the #4 seed and the Eagles at the #7 seed. Dallas is trending up at the right time in the season by winning four of their last five games. Rematch of the Week 3 game, won by the Cowboys (41-21). Significant offensive and defensive personnel will be sitting this game out due to injuries and Covid-19 impacts. Eagles are on a four game winning streak to get into the playoffs for first year head coach Nick Sirianni. Jalen Hurts has blossomed as a running and throwing QB. Deep running and receiving corps will make Philadelphia a tough out in the NFC playoffs bracket.
Prediction: Cowboys are currently a 4.0 point road favorite and will win by 6 points
1. Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville
Time to audible to the lock of the week. This game should be a no-brainer. Colts have already clinched a spot in the AFC playoffs and are currently the #6 seed. Jacksonville was eliminated from the 2021 playoffs during the third week of the pre-season. Colts have won six of their last eight games to get hot at the right time. RB Jonathan Taylor has taken his game to the next level this season (1734 rushing yards, 18 rushing TDs, 342 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs). Taylor is in the NFL MVP race with Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Jaguars have been a mess in 2021 from day one, due to hiring Urban Meyer as head coach. Drafted franchise QB Trevor Lawrence in April 2021 and then the franchise fell off the cliff. Not sure which candidate will emerge as the new head coach for 2022, but this team needs help in every phase of the game and in the front office. Don’t wear those Mark Brunell throwback jerseys for the next five years.
Prediction: Colts are currently a 15.0 point road favorite and will cover easily (17+ points)
NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 18 for Upsets that might happen
5. Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore
AFC North matchup and both teams are fighting to get into the playoffs. Steelers showed some onions by beating Cleveland in Week 17 (26-14), which allowed QB Ben Roethlisberger to take a victory lap at Heinz Field. Mike Tomlin is the model of coaching consistency due to completing fifteen straight seasons with a winning record. Rookie RB Najee Harris will need to have a monster statistical game for Pittsburgh to stay in this game. Ravens are on a five game losing streak, with four of those losses by two points or less. QB Lamar Jackson won’t play due to an injured ankle, which means a ton of passes to TE Mark Andrews and WR Marquise Brown. Pittsburgh started Baltimore’s losing streak in Week 13 with a 20-19 victory. Counting on the Steelers to book end that steak with a road win and Big Ben gets one more chance in the AFC playoffs, despite being 3.5 point road underdogs.
4. New Orleans vs. Atlanta
NFC South matchup that usually has a lot of luster, but this one has aged a bit. Saints need to win and have San Francisco lose to the Los Angeles Rams to sneak into the NFC playoffs. Falcons were eliminated in Week 16. New Orleans has run into significant hurdles during the first post-Drew Brees era season. Injuries at QB (Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill), RB (Alvin Kamara) and the entire receiving corps have caused each week to be an offensive adventure. Season has been highlighted by a sweep of Tampa Bay and wins over Green Bay and New England. Atlanta is putting the finishes on their season and it feels like a bad chapter in a boring book. Beat the lower tier teams in the NFL and had two quality wins on the road (Miami, New Orleans). QB Matt Ryan, RB Cordarrelle Patterson and rookie TE Kyle Pitts all had good statistical seasons, but the rest of the squad is going through the motions. Saints are currently 3.5 point road favorites, but if Atlanta hangs around in the third quarter, the fourth quarter could be entertaining.
3. Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
The battle of Ohio has the AFC North division champion Bengals traveling to the Dawg Pound to play the Browns. Cincinnati had a big win over Kansas City (34-31) in Week 17 that clinched the AFC North. Bengals will be missing a minimum of six starters due to injuries and Covid-19 impacts. WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will have to carry the offense by themselves on the road. Cleveland can’t wait for the off-season to get here due to being eliminated from the playoffs in Week 17. QB Baker Mayfield will have shoulder surgery on 1/19/22 and won’t play in this game. Mayfield is currently taking a beating by the talking heads this week due to playing injured and not being a good team leader. Wasn’t the exact opposite said in late 2020? Browns are currently 6.0 point home favorites, but the Bengals will push them for 60 minutes with a depleted roster.
2. San Francisco vs. Los Angeles Rams
Big game in the NFC West for both teams. 49ers need to win to get into the NFC playoffs. Rams are trying to hold off Arizona for the NFC West division title. San Francisco is 6-2 in their last eight games. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has done a masterful job waking up the 49ers offense by getting numerous touches for human highlight reel WR Deebo Samuel. If rookie QB Trey Lance gets the start in this game, will he take advantage of the big stage opportunity?
Rams are red hot due to riding a five game winning streak and currently sitting in the #2 slot in the NFC playoffs bracket. A win keeps them at home with a Wild Card game against San Francisco or Philadelphia. A loss could cause a drop to the #5 slot and a road game at Dallas. Both teams need a victory and this is must watch viewing for 60 minutes. 49ers have beaten the Rams five straight games and this will be a true test to get it to six. Los Angeles Rams are currently a 4.5 point home favorite, but I’ll take Shanahan’s play calling and rookie QB to be unflappable in a big game to close out the 2021 season.
1. Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas
Sunday night game on NBC is a great AFC West matchup between two old time rivals. As long as this game doesn’t end in a tie, the winning team heads to the AFC Wild Card round and the loser most likely starts playing golf in the offseason. I’m sure Cris Collinsworth will remind viewers of that during every change of possession and at each commercial break. Chargers have been up and down like a bad stock tip for the entire season. When second year QB Justin Herbert gets time to make reads downfield, the Los Angeles offense is almost impossible to stop. RB Austin Ekeler is a solid change of pace weapon in the red zone. Chargers main weakness is their defense, which can’t stop the run and allows 26.5 points per game.
Raiders have been living on borrowed time since Week 15 with three straight victories almost at the buzzer. QB Derek Carr continues to play at an elite level, but he has no running game support to ease the stress. Raiders make up for that due to having a kicker with ice water in his veins, Daniel Carlson. Raiders are currently 3.0 point home underdogs, but they will find a way to win this game or at least get it to OT.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 18 and try again for the NFL Wildcard playoff round.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas! Hope you enjoyed NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 18.
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