2022 CFP National Championship Game Pick Recap
CFP National Championship Game – 0/1 correct due to Georgia wearing down Alabama in the fourth quarter
2021 All Picks Recap
Bowl Games Part II – 12/20 correct
CFP Semi-finals – 2/2 correct
CFP National Championship Game – 0/1 correct
College Football Predictions 2021
1. Top 5 Games to Watch
Statistical Analysis: 43/65 correct, 66.2% accuracy rate, two standard deviations above the mean
Highlights: Picked Alabama to beat Miami in Week #1 by 21+ points and they won by 31 points (44-13): picked Oklahoma to beat Texas in Week #6 by 4 points and they won by 7 points (55-48) due to an incredible second half; picked Michigan State to beat Michigan in Week #9 by 2 points and they won by 4 points (37-33) by completing a memorable fourth quarter comeback.
Lowlights: Picked Alabama to beat Texas A&M in Week #6 by 21+ points and they lost by 3 points (41-38); picked Wake Forest to beat Clemson in Week #12 by 7 points and they lost by 21 points (48-27); picked Oregon to beat Utah in Week #12 by 4 points and they lost by 31 points (38-7).
Comments: This section was the easiest to write on a weekly basis. Determined the five best games based on the Top 25 rankings and then inter-conference matchups. Several weeks this section could have listed up to ten games. Hard not to focus on the dominant teams (Georgia, Alabama, Cincinnati) to simply pad the prediction statistics. Tried to use a variety of teams to ensure the weekly postings were as fresh as possible.
2. Top 5 Upsets that could happen
Statistical Analysis: 22/65 correct, 33.8% accuracy rate, two standard deviations below the mean
Highlights: Predicted Stanford would beat USC in Week #2 and the hot seat would get even hotter for Trojans head coach Clay Helton. After losing 42-28, thankfully AD Mike Bohm pulled the plug on the Helton era. Went 5/5 in Week #4 thanks to Boston College, SMU, Boise State, Baylor and NC State all taking care of business as underdogs.
Lowlights: Going 0/5 in Weeks #8, #11 and #12. Using a dart board would have been more accurate for those fifteen games. At least I tried picking games in the ACC, Big-12, SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12, and Mountain West conferences to spread the pain.
Comments: This section was the most difficult to write on a weekly basis. Several weeks this section could have listed less than five games. Predicted upsets for the first 50%-75% of the season based on ranked teams that I thought would lose. As my prediction statistics started to crater, I looked for betting lines that were favoring an underdog and I would pick the “better” team. This may be considered gaming the statistical system, but it opened my eyes to how betting lines can and do change on a daily basis.
3. Top 10 Conference Championships
Statistical Analysis: 7/10 correct, 70.0% accuracy rate, two standard deviations above the mean
Highlights: Predicted Cincinnati would beat Houston by 10.5+ points and make it into the CFP Semi-finals. Bearcats won the American Conference Championship game 35-20 and were awarded the #4 seed in the CFP. Predicted Pittsburgh would beat Wake Forest by 6 points and the Panthers won the ACC Championship game 45-21. I hope the Denver Broncos find a way to draft QB Kenny Pickett in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Lowlights: Predicted San Diego State would win the Mountain West Conference Championship game by 10+ points and they lost by 33 points to Utah State (46-13).
Comments: 70% accuracy rate is nothing to sneeze at, but this was based on the twenty best teams in the country during Week #14. Teams trending up late in the season won their conferences and most talking heads could see the final scores easily.
4. Bowl Games Part I
Statistical Analysis: 9/15 correct, 60.0% accuracy rate, one standard deviation above the mean
Highlights: Picked Utah State to beat Oregon State by 10 points in the LA Bowl and they won by 11 points (24-13); picked UCF to beat Florida by 3 points in the Gasparilla Bowl and they won by 12 points (29-17).
Lowlights: Picked BYU to beat UAB by 10+ points in the Independence Bowl and they lost by 3 points (31-28); picked Kent State to beat Wyoming by 4 points in the Potato Bowl and they lost by 14 points (52-38).
Comments: Found out the hard way about the dreaded opt out rule for players to bypass their team’s bowl game and start preparing for the 2022 NFL Draft. Also saw how the wide open transfer portal can decimate a team’s roster before bowl games even kick off. This is the new normal in college football with player “free agency.” Get used to it, its not going to change anytime soon.
5. Bowl Games Part II
Statistical Analysis: 12/20 correct, 60.0% accuracy rate, one standard deviation above the mean
Highlights: Picked South Carolina to beat North Carolina by 3 points in the Mayo Bowl and they won by 17 points (38-21); picked Michigan State to beat Pittsburgh by 7 points in the Peach Bowl and they won by 10 points (31-21).
Lowlights: Picked Mississippi State to beat Texas Tech by 14+ points in the Liberty Bowl and they lost by 27 points (34-7). I’ll never pick a Mike Leach coached team to win a game again, he’s overrated; picked Virginia Tech to beat Maryland by 6 points in the Pinstripe Bowl and they lost by 44 points (54-10).
Comments: Opt out rule was now understood, but several high profile players and team matchups became third and fourth string players trying to replicate offensive plays that now looked clunky. Helped that the Fiesta Bowl was a great game and the Rose Bowl was epic from start to finish.
6. CFP Semi-finals
Statistical Analysis: 2/2 correct, 100.0% accuracy rate, three standard deviations above the mean
Highlights: Picked Alabama to beat Cincinnati by 14 points and they won by 23 points (27-6); picked Georgia to beat Michigan by 3 points and they won by 23 points (34-11).
Lowlights: Missed the actual point spreads by 9 and 20 points, but picked the two best teams in the country for 2021 correctly.
Comments: Lots of hype for the 2021 CFP field and the two best teams (Georgia, Alabama) beat their opponents in every phase of the game. SEC is by far the best and deepest conference in the country from top to bottom.
7. CFP National Championship Game
Statistical Analysis: 0/1 correct, 0.0% accuracy rate, three standard deviations below the mean
Highlights: Wrote a thorough analysis that highlighted offense, defense, special teams, coaching and intangibles for both teams.
Lowlights: Picked Alabama to win by 3 points and Georgia won the national title by 15 points (33-18).
Comments: Defense wins championships and always pick the team that lost round one.
8. Looking forward to 2022
Overall 2021 Statistical Analysis: 95/178 correct, 53.4% accuracy, right at the mean
Highlights: Was able to maintain a weekly posting cadence of ten games being analyzed and predicted.
Lowlights: Trying to end an 0/10 hitless streak for upsets in Week #13.
Comments: 2021 was an exercise in keeping pace and opening my eyes to more of the college football scene. That definitely happened and I can’t wait for the 2022 season hype to start in the early summer.
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