This article summarizes what did and didn’t work when predicting the MLB playoffs for the 2022 season. Entered into this exercise with low expectations, due to never predicting MLB playoff series in the past. Watched my favorite team (New York Yankees) struggle through the last two months of the regular season. Biggest questions are how to improve the accuracy of predictions for the 2023 playoffs and ensure the postings are also entertaining to read.
2022 Major League Baseball Playoffs Recap
World Series
1/1 correct thanks to the Houston Astros
2022 All Picks Recap
Wildcard Round total – 3/4 correct
Divisional Round total – 1/4 correct
League Championships Round total – 2/2 correct
World Series 0total – 1/1 correct
MLB Playoffs total – 7/11 correct which is one standard deviation above the median
Wildcard Round series
Statistical Analysis: 3/4 correct, 75.0% accuracy rate, one standard deviation above the mean
Highlights: Correctly predicted the Cleveland Guardians would beat the Tampa Bay Rays in two games.
Lowlights: Predicted the New York Mets would beat the San Diego Padres in three games. Padres rode the arm of starting pitcher Joe Musgrove in Game 3 and advanced to the Divisional Round.
Comments: Due to the depth of playoff teams in both the American League and National League, I wanted to mix in two sleeper picks (Seattle, Philadelphia), with two favored teams (Cleveland, New York Mets). That formula was working well until the Padres smothered the Mets offense in Game 3 and manager Buck Showalter got desperate, by asking the home plate umpire to check Joe Musgrove mid-game for any foreign substances. Didn’t consider how much mental and physical fatigue the Mets and Braves were under due to the season long NL East race.
Divisional Round series
Statistical Analysis: 1/4 correct, 25.0% accuracy rate, one standard deviation below the mean
Highlights: Correctly predicted the Houston Astros would beat the Mariners in five games, when it actually took three games plus an additional nine innings.
Lowlights: Missed both National League series by a mile, with Philadelphia beating Atlanta in four games (predicted the Braves to win in five games). San Diego advanced due to beating the Los Angeles Dodgers in four games (predicted the Dodgers would win in four games).
Comments: Still don’t know how the New York Yankees advanced in five games over Cleveland, except that Gerrit Cole pitched a solid Game 4 and the Yankees hit enough homeruns in Game 5. Mariners showed they belonged in the 2022 playoffs, due to pushing the Astros in three straight games, but kept finding a way to barely lose or were simply beat.
Thought the Atlanta Braves were battle tested and ready to defend their 2021 World Series title, but they were mentally and physically drained from the NL East race. Braves showed little resistance and less offense against the suddenly gelling Phillies. Best team during the regular season, Los Angeles Dodgers, had another early playoff exit, due to the Padres figuring out their bullpen for the last three innings of each game. Manager Dave Roberts needs to come up with a new strategy, besides just starting a middle reliever and then relying on his bullpen when he’s out of starting pitchers.
League Championship Round series
Statistical Analysis: 2/2 correct, 100.0% accuracy rate, three standard deviations above the mean
Highlights: Correctly predicted the Houston Astros would win the ALCS and the Philadelphia Phillies would win the NLCS.
Lowlights: Wasn’t close on the predicted length of both League Championship series. Thought the Astros would advance in six games and they took care of business in four short games. Phillies were on a roll and I thought the NLCS would go seven games due to the pitching depth of San Diego. NLCS only went five games because the Phillies continued hitting baseballs over the fence with two outs.
Comments: Yankees showed no resistance to the dominant Astros pitching staff and couldn’t hit with RISP if their playoff lives depended on it. Aaron Boone has been in pinstripes for five seasons and has nothing to show for it. Time for the Yankees to hire Don Mattingly as manager and learn how to get base hits again. Padres looked like a formidable foe for the Phillies, but Bryce Harper kept swinging a hot bat and the starting pitchers were dominant in a short NLCS that only lasted five games.
World Series
Statistical Analysis: 1/1 correct, 100.0% accuracy rate, three standard deviations above the mean
Highlights: Correctly predicted the Houston Astros would win the World Series in six games.
Lowlights: Get to wrap my head around an Astros franchise winning a “legit” championship in 2022, after winning a tainted World Series title in 2017 due to trash can gate. Baseball karma may have been served with the Nationals in 2019 and the Braves in 2021, by winning World Series over the Astros.
Comments: Philadelphia applied immediate pressure to Houston by winning Game 1 on the road in extra innings. Went up two games to one after an offensive blitzkrieg performance in Game 3. Defining moment of the 2022 World Series was the Astros team no hitter thrown in Game 4. OF Chas McCormick made the defensive play of the series in Game 5. Jeremy Pena and Yordan Alvarez both had good nights at the plate in Game 6, and the championship trophy now resides in Houston until the 2023 ML:B regular season starts in March 2023.
Same bat time, same bat channel for the MLB playoffs for the 2023 season. There might be some changes, might roll with what I’ve got. Tune in and see what happens in the fall of 2023.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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