2021-2022 Playoff Picks Recap
2021 All Picks Recap
Conference Championships Round – 1/2 correct
Super Bowl 56 – 1/1 correct
1. Top 5 Games to Watch
Statistical Analysis: 55/90 correct, 61.1% accuracy rate, one standard deviation above the mean
Highlights: Correctly predicted 4 out of 5 games in Weeks 4, 12, 13 and 15; correctly predicted 5 out of 5 games in Week 14 and covered all five point spreads.
Lowlights: Predicted only one game correctly in Week 8 with Pittsburgh beating Cleveland 15-10 on the road.
Comments: This section was the easiest to write on a weekly basis. Determined the five best games based on division standings and historical matchups. Several weeks this section could have listed up to eight games. Hard not to focus on the top tier teams (Green Bay, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Tennessee, Cincinnati) to simply pad the prediction statistics. Tried to use a variety of teams to ensure the weekly postings were as fresh as possible.
2. Top 5 Upsets that could happen
Statistical Analysis: 37/90 correct, 41.1% accuracy rate, two standard deviations below the mean
Highlights: Correctly predicted 4 out of 5 games in Weeks 3 and 13.
Lowlights: Going 0/5 in Weeks 5 and 11. Using a dart board would have been more accurate for those ten games. At least I tried picking games in the AFC West, AFC North, AFC East, NFC West, NFC North, NFC South and NFC East.
Comments: This section was the most difficult to write on a weekly basis. Several weeks this section could have listed less than five games. Predicted upsets for the first 70%-80% of the season based on division leading teams that I thought would lose. As my prediction statistics started to crater, I looked for betting lines that were favoring a double digit (10+ points) team and I would label that game the “lock of the week.” Can only pick against the weaker teams (Jacksonville, New York Giants, New York Jets) so many times and then it becomes anti-climatic. This may be considered gaming the statistical system, but it opened my eyes to how betting lines can and do change on a daily basis.
3. Wildcard Round
Statistical Analysis: 5/6 correct, 83.3% accuracy rate, two standard deviations above the mean
Highlights: Would have been 6/6 for a 100.0% accuracy rate if the Raiders had upset the Bengals on the road. An inadvertent whistle by the referees during a Joe Burrow TD pass was allowed, which directly led to an unpredictable AFC playoff bracket all the way to Super Bowl 56.
Lowlights: Predicted the Raiders would upset the Bengals by three points on the road. Las Vegas was out of gas getting into the playoffs and I thought their DL would pressure Joe Burrow for 60 full minutes. This game showed that the Bengals had a squad ready for a deep playoff run.
Comments: 83.3% accuracy rate is nothing to sneeze at, but this was based on twelve of the best teams in the NFL after Week #18. Teams trending up late in the season won their respective divisions and most talking heads could see the final scores easily.
4. Divisional Round
Statistical Analysis: 1/4 correct, 25.0% accuracy rate, two standard deviations below the mean
Highlights: Picked Los Angeles Rams to beat Tampa Bay in walk-off fashion by three points and the Rams won 30-27.
Lowlights: Didn’t pay attention to the Wild Card round momentum that Cincinnati and San Francisco carried into this round for huge road victories at Tennessee and Green Bay; picked the Bills to finally get past the Chiefs in the AFC bracket and was treated to the best NFL playoff game of all time.
Comments: Found out the hard way about ignoring the #1 seeds having a bye week. Road games are not a disadvantage in this decade due to how closely the playoff teams matchup in this round of the NFL playoffs. One of the best football weekends in a long time due to all four games being decided by six points or less.
5. Conference Championships Round
Statistical Analysis: 1/2 correct, 50.0% accuracy rate, right at the mean
Highlights: Picked the Los Angeles Rams to beat the 49ers by 7 points and they won by 3 points (20-17). Head coach Sean McVay finally broke a six game losing streak to Kyle Shanahan and had his squad primed for a “home game” at SoFi Stadium for Super Bowl 56.
Lowlights: Picked Kanas City to beat Cincinnati by 4 points and they lost by 3 points (27-24) in OT. Patrick Mahomes threw a bad INT on the Chiefs first possession in OT and their AFC dynasty window is starting to close.
Comments: Four incredible games from the Divisional Round carried over to the Conference Championships Round and both games were air tight. No complaints with the current playoff format of seven teams from each conference progressing through the brackets to the Super Bowl.
6. Super Bowl 56
Statistical Analysis: 1/1 correct, 100.0% accuracy rate, three standard deviations above the mean
Highlights: Wrote a thorough analysis that highlighted offense, defense, special teams, coaching and intangibles for both teams. Picked the Los Angeles Rams to beat Cincinnati by 3 points and they won by 3 points (23-20).
Lowlights: Listening to Cris Collinsworth do commentary on NBC for 60 game time minutes.
Comments: Rams QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp carried the offense for the entire second half due to Odell Beckham Jr.’s knee injury. When the stakes were the highest, the Rams put together their best offensive drive of the season late in the fourth quarter.
8. Looking forward to 2022
Overall 2021 Statistical Analysis: 100/193 correct, 51.8% accuracy, right at the mean
Highlights: Was able to maintain a weekly posting cadence of ten games being analyzed and predicted.
Lowlights: Trying to end an 0/5 hitless streak for upsets in Weeks 6 and 12.
Comments: 2021 was an exercise in keeping pace and opening my eyes to more of the pro football scene. That definitely happened and I can’t wait for the 2022 season hype to start in the late summer.
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