This article summarizes what did and didn’t work when predicting the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs for the 2021-2022 season. Entered into this exercise with low expectations, due to coming off the 2020-2021 season that was highlighted with Covid-19 impacts to team schedules, limited attendance of fans in the stands and a second straight Stanley Cup title for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Biggest questions are how to improve the accuracy of predictions for the 2023 playoffs and ensure the postings are also entertaining to read.
2022 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Recap
Stanley Cup Finals
1/1 correct thanks to Cale Makar and the Colorado Avalanche
2022 All Picks Recap
Round 1 total – 7/8 correct
Round 2 total – 2/4 correct
Conference Finals total – 2/2 correct
Stanley Cup Finals total – 1/1 correct
NHL Playoffs total – 12/15 correct which is two standard deviations above the median
Round 1 NHL Playoff Series
Statistical Analysis: 7/8 correct, 87.5% accuracy rate, two standard deviations above the mean
Highlights: Correctly predicted the Tampa Bay Lightning would beat the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven games; correctly predicted the Carolina Hurricanes would eliminate the Boston Bruins in seven games.
Lowlights: Predicted the Minnesota Wild would beat the St. Louis Blues in seven games. The Blues woke up playing in front of goalie Jordan Binnington and advanced in six games.
Comments: This section was very tempting to pick a slew of upsets, but the Eastern Conference was steady the entire regular season, which carried over to the first round. Western Conference was a nightly playoff race for the last 4-to-6 weeks of the regular season. #1 seeds quickly took care of business to advance (Florida Panthers in six games and the Colorado Avalanche in four games). If the puck had bounced differently, the Dallas Stars and Los Angeles Kings had legitimate chances to flip the playoff bracket in the Western Conference.
Round 2 NHL Playoff Series
Statistical Analysis: 2/4 correct, 50.0% accuracy rate, right at the mean
Highlights: Correctly predicted the Colorado Avalanche would beat the St. Louis Blues in six games.
Lowlights: Predicted the Calgary Flames would beat the Edmonton Oilers in seven games. Oilers flipped the script to advance in five games, due to riding a hot Mike Smith in goal and Evander Kane on offense. Missed the New York Rangers continuing to trend up as the Carolina Hurricanes ran out of gas at home in Game 7. Chris Drury is a sneaky good general manger for the Broadway Blueshirts.
Comments: Hard to predict three of the four series being won by the lower seeded team and without home ice advantage. Rangers played with a ton of confidence in Round 2 due to the stellar play of goalie Igor Shesterkin. Carolina Hurricanes couldn’t win a road game in the playoffs and it caught up to them. Edmonton Oilers looked like a real Stanley Cup contender by winning four straight games against the Calgary Flames. Darren Helm scored the biggest goal of the playoffs for the Colorado Avalanche, with five seconds remaining in Game 6 on the road in St. Louis. If that series headed to a Game 7, the entire state of Colorado was going to be chewing their finger nails and feeling like Maple Leafs fans.
NHL Conference Finals Playoff Series
Statistical Analysis: 2/2 correct, 100.0% accuracy rate, three standard deviations above the mean
Highlights: Correctly predicted the Tampa Bay Lightning would beat the New York Rangers in six games.
Lowlights: Thought the Edmonton Oilers would push the Colorado Avalanche, but Nathan MacKinnon and his teammates stayed focused and were on a mission to get to the Stanley Cup Finals. Backup goalie Pavel Francouz filled in for injured starter Darcy Kuemper, and helped complete the series sweep in four games.
Comments: Tampa Bay looked tired and uninspired on the road after losing the first two games to the New York Rangers. Flipped the switch at home during Game 3, and then rode a four game winning streak back to the Stanley Cup Finals for a third consecutive season. Colorado Avalanche looked like they wanted a track meet against the Edmonton Oilers in Game 1, and then quickly settled down to playing a team game. Swiss army knife Artturi Lehkonen scored the OT winner in Game 4, which led to a guessing game of which teammates would or would not touch the Western Conference championship trophy.
Stanley Cup Finals
Statistical Analysis: 1/1 correct, 100.0% accuracy rate, three standard deviations above the mean
Highlights: Entertaining series that saw the Stanley Cup trophy go from the Tampa Bay Lightning to the Colorado Avalanche for the first time in twenty-one years.
Lowlights: Predicted the series would go seven games and it ended in six games.
Comments: This was the series matchup that most NHL hockey fans wanted. To quote Conn Smythe Trophy winner, Cale Makar, “a dynasty potentially ending and a new legacy potentially beginning”. Clean and hard fought series that showed Andrei Vasilevskiy is human, once every three-to-four years in the NHL playoffs. Momentum shifted with the OT winning goal scored by Nazem Kadri in Game 4. Thankfully the Colorado Avalanche played their best team defense of the entire season, during the third period of Game 6 on the road in Tampa Bay. Makar is officially an NHL star at the young age of 23.
Same bat time, same bat channel for the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs for the 2022-2023 season. There might be some changes, might roll with what I’ve got. Tune in and see what happens in the spring of 2023.
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