This article summarizes what did and didn’t work when predicting the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs for the 2022-2023 season. Entered into this exercise with high expectations, due to predicting 12/15 series in the 2021-2022 NHL playoffs, for an 80.0% accuracy rate. This blogger thought his lucky crystal ball was ready for the 2022-2023 NHL playoffs bracket challenge again…he was wrong. Biggest questions are how to improve the accuracy of predictions for the 2024 playoffs and ensure the postings are also entertaining to read.
2023 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Recap
Stanley Cup Finals
0/1 due to the Vegas Golden Knights winning the Cup
2023 All Picks Recap
Round 1 total – 4/8 correct
Round 2 total – 2/4 correct
Conference Finals total – 1/2 correct
Stanley Cup Finals total – 0/1 correct
NHL Playoffs total – 7/15 correct which is one standard deviation below the mean
Round 1 NHL Playoff Series
Statistical Analysis: 4/8 correct, 50.0% accuracy rate, right at the mean, accuracy decreased from 2022 by -37.5%
Highlights: Crystal ball was very accurate in picking Dallas and Edmonton to both advance to the second round in six games.
Lowlights: Didn’t have faith in Toronto to finally advance in the playoffs for the first time since 2004. Was hoping the Avalanche would be re-energized in the playoffs, but ended up being very wrong. Valeri Nichushkin’s alleged hotel room incident in Seattle turned that series upside down. Incredibly hard to repeat as champions when an offensive roster is shorthanded in crunch time.
Comments: Couldn’t see the potential upsets in the opening round if I had used a bottle of Windex on my crystal ball. Boston’s gag job against Florida, up three games to one game, and then losing in seven games will live in NHL infamy for decades to come. Rangers were loaded with talent, but seemed to be missing a spark against New Jersey and could never seize momentum. Vegas was staying below the radar in a deep and talented Western Conference.
Round 2 NHL Playoff Series
Statistical Analysis: 2/4 correct, 50.0% accuracy rate, right at the mean, accuracy didn’t change from 2022 (0.0%)
Highlights: Correctly predicted Carolina and Dallas would advance to the Conference Finals round, but was off by two games and one game in the series duration.
Lowlights: Completely misjudged Florida’s squad and how they would shut down the vaunted Toronto offense. Maple Leafs fan base was looking too far ahead in the Eastern playoff bracket and completely underestimated the Panthers depth and confidence. Edmonton had quality chances against Vegas, but too much forward depth and a solid defensemen corps play bottled up Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
Comments: Florida was on a mission and gladly accepted all of the puck bounces and OT goals that seemed to go their way through two playoff rounds. Dallas was starting to resemble the 2000 team that played in the Finals during the bubble post-season. Edmonton needs to solve their goalie rotation, since it is an Achilles heel issue during the playoffs.
NHL Conference Finals Playoff Series
Statistical Analysis: 1/2 correct, 50.0% accuracy rate, right at the mean, accuracy decreased from 2022 by -50.0%
Highlights: Crystal ball was accurate again with Vegas beating Dallas in six games. Series should have been over in four games, but the Golden Knights took their foot off the gas pedal in Games 4 and 5. Most likely did that to re-energize their roster for the Stanley Cup Finals.
Lowlights: Picked Carolina to beat Florida in seven games and they were swept in four games.
Comments: Continued to ignore how Florida was playing better and better each game. Thought Carolina’s head coach, Rob Brind’Amour, would have a strategic answer. Shuffling lines in Game 4, was simply too little and too late to stop the Panthers momentum. Dallas showed some life late in their series, but they have some tough choices with long tenured veterans this off-season and whether to resign them.
Stanley Cup Finals
Statistical Analysis: 0/1 correct, 0.0% accuracy rate, three standard deviations below the mean, accuracy rate decreased from 2022 by -100.0%
Highlights: Still the best professional sports post-season tournament held in North America, but this series was one sided. Vegas overwhelmed Florida with better goaltending, team speed and a lethal power play unit. Head coach Bruce Cassidy exorcised some demons from the 2019 Stanley Cup Finals, due to running a smooth ship from the bench and in the locker room.
Lowlights: Predicted Florida would win the series in six games and they lost in five games.
Comments: Panthers ran out of healthy bodies as the series progressed. Watching a one-armed Matthew Tkachuk, try to muster his way through Game 4 was painful and sad. Jack Eichel probably erased most of his bad memories from a bumpy tenure with the Buffalo Sabres, and he looks motivated to build on a huge statistical post-season. Hard for this blogger to root for an expansion franchise that has had immediate success since their inaugural season in 2017-2018. The rest of the Western Conference has some work to do to keep pace with Vegas.
Same bat time, same bat channel for the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs for the 2023-2024 season. There might be some changes, might roll with what I’ve got. Tune in and see what happens in the spring of 2024.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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