2022 Week 9 Picks Recap
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 31/45 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 20/45 correct
Overall picks – 51/90 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Pro Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Jacksonville vs. Kansas City
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri on 11/13/22. Jacksonville has stuttered stepped to a 3-6 record heading into this matchup, and are 2-1 against the AFC West. QB Trevor Lawrence had his first technically sound statistical game in Week 9 against Las Vegas (80.7% completion rate, 235 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 53 rushing yards). WR Christian Kirk (574 receiving yards, 5 TDs) is starting to figure out how to be the #1 receiving option in the Jaguars offense. Underrated defense allows 343.4 yards and 19.8 points per game.
Chiefs are cruising along at 6-2 and had an instant classic win over Tennessee in Week 9 (20-17). QB Patrick Mahomes improvised by running the ball in the second half, to squeak by the Titans. WR JuJu Smith-Schuster has emerged as a legitimate #2 receiving option behind TE Travis Kelce, due to 582 receiving yards and 2 TDs. WR Mecole Hardman has been ruled out for this game due to injury, so the running game will get a lot work with RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire trying to get back on track. Defense is treading water due to allowing 351.5 yards and 23.6 points per game.
Prediction: Kansas City is a solid 9.5 point home favorite and they’ll cover winning by 11+ points
4. Cleveland vs. Miami
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida on 11/13/22. Browns continue to take one step forward and then two steps back. Had an emotional Monday night win over Cincinnati in Week 8 (32-13). Coming off a bye week, can Cleveland keep that momentum going against a top tier opponent? RB Nick Chubb continues to run with passion (841 rushing yards, 10 TDs), and he’s the ultimate team player. Due to TE David Njoku being ruled out of this game due to injury, QB Jacoby Brissett is going to have to look for WR Amari Cooper early and often to be his security blanket.
Dolphins are riding an impressive three game winning streak (Pittsburgh, Detroit, Chicago). Have two easy games (Cleveland, Houston), before finishing 2022 with a brutal schedule (San Francisco, Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo, Green Bay, New England, New York Jets). QB Tua Tagovailoa has been on a tear the last three games (70.3 % completion rate, 945 passing yards, 7 TDs, 0 INTs). Miami has arguably the best one-two punch at the WR position due to Tyreek Hill (1104 receiving yards, 3 TDs) and Jaylen Waddle (812 receiving yards, 6 TDs). Time to start paying attention to this squad folks, they play sound football week in and week out.
Prediction: Miami is a steady 3.5 point home favorite and they win by 7+ points to keep pace in the AFC East
3. Dallas vs. Green Bay
Late afternoon kickoff (4:25 PM EST) from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin on 11/13/22. Packers lead this series 20-17-0 and have won the last three meetings. Cowboys last won on 10/16/16 at Lambeau Field (30-16). Dallas has feasted on the NFC North the last two games, with convincing wins over Detroit (24-6) and Chicago (49-29). QB Dak Prescott has shaken off the injury cobwebs to have a 66.7% completion rate, 591 passing yards, and 3 TDs. More importantly, Prescott isn’t turning the ball over and relying on the running game to move the chains. Defense is stingy due to only allowing 313.5 yards and 16.6 points per game.
Green Bay is a complete mess right now and could be referred to as a train wreck, due to having a dreadful five game losing streak. QB Aaron Rodgers can continue to hold closed door meetings with his teammates, talking about accountability and turning things around. But until that actually happens on the field on Sundays, it’s only talk, which Rogers has almost perfected over the last four to five seasons. If this Packers losing streak gets any longer, this blogger will be having flashbacks to when QB Bernie Kosar ran into a bad front office in Cleveland during the 1993 season and was traded to Dallas. Kosar ended up with a Super Bowl ring and the Cleveland franchise is still floundering. Where will Rodgers be in 2023? Even money odds right now that he’ll be an anchor on Fox News and will fit in like a glove.
Prediction: Dallas is a valid 4.0 point road favorite and they’ll add to the Packers woes due to winning by 7 points
2. Los Angeles Chargers vs. San Francisco
Evening primetime kickoff (8:20 PM EST) from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California on 11/13/22. Chargers are a quiet team at 5-3, due to winning four out of their last five games. QB Justin Herbert is clicking again (2254 passing yards, 13 TDs), despite not having a 100% healthy WR and TE corps. RB Austin Ekeler continues to be one of the busiest NFL players in the entire league, with 808 total yards of offense and 9 TDs. Defense is still leaky due to giving up 352.3 yards and 25.8 points per game. If the receiving corps could get healthy, this offense has a chance to be lethal with Herbert at the controls.
49ers are starting to get healthy at the right time on both sides of the ball. Had a season defining win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 8 (31-14), to get to 4-4. Now they are ready to show off all-world RB Christian McCaffrey, in the complex offensive game planning of head coach Kyle Shanahan. Rest of the teams in the NFC West have now been warned, beware of a healthy San Francisco squad. Defense is currently leading the NFL by only allowing 285.9 yards and 18.4 points per game.
Prediction: San Francisco is a stout 7.5 point home favorite and they’ll win by 3 points in walk off fashion
1. Houston vs. New York Giants
Lock of the week is an early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) on 11/13/22, from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Texans are 1-6-1 on the season and mired in a three game losing streak. QB David Mills (1656 passing yards, 10 TDs) and RB Dameon Pierce (678 rushing yards, 3 TDs) have carried the Houston offense, but the WR and TE corps has been injury prone. None of the WRs and TES with 150+ receiving yards on the season, have played in all eight games. That could be considered bad luck or simply playing for one of the worst franchises in the NFL.
Giants are another quiet 6-2 team and are 3-1 at home. Follow the simple strategy of beating the weaker teams they are supposed to, and then see what happens when they play better teams on paper. Leading NFL Comeback Player of the Year, RB Saquon Barkley, is averaging 97.4 rushing yards per game and has 5 TDs. QB Daniel Jones seems to be playing foot loose and fancy free with no expectations from the new coaching staff (1399 passing yards, 6 passing TDs, 363 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs). Defense is bending and definitely not breaking due to only giving up 19.6 points per game.
Prediction: New York Giants are a sound 4.5 point home favorite and they cover easily due to winning by 9+ points
Pro Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Seattle vs. Tampa Bay
Seahawks lead the NFC West at 6-3 and are starting to gain media attention as a legitimate football team in 2022. NFL Comeback Player of the Year candidate QB Geno Smith (2199 passing yards, 15 TDs), continues to lead an efficient offense. WR DK Metcalf has been quiet on the stat sheet over the past four games, and is due to have a big game in Munich, Germany. CB Tariq Woolen is the real deal as a rookie with 4 INTs. Buccaneers broke their three game losing streak, with a big win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 9 (16-13). QB Tom Brady still looks physically drained and the offense is sputtering, but this will be an entertaining game in Europe. Tampa Bay is a 2.5 point neutral site favorite, but Seattle excels at road trips this season.
4. Denver vs. Tennessee
Broncos are coming off their bye week and finally have some confidence, after beating Jacksonville in Week 8 (21-17). QB Russell Wilson (1694 passing yards, 6 TDs) needs to exercise on airplane flights and not turn the ball over. RB Melvin Gordon III can still score in the red zone when focuses on running north and south, not east and west. Secret weapon is rookie TE Greg Dulcich (182 receiving yards, 1 TD in three games).
Titans couldn’t generate any offense in the second half against Kansas City in Week 9. Rookie QB Malik Willis played poorly and will most likely watch Ryan Tannehill start in Week 10. Tennessee will take RB Derrick Henry (108.8 rushing yards per game) and run him straight at the Broncos second ranked defense (288.4 yards and 16.5 points per game). Denver is a 2.5 point road underdog and will find a way to be in this game late in the fourth quarter.
3. Minnesota vs. Buffalo
Technically one of the Top 5 games of the week, but the current betting line is too high to ignore. Vikings are 7-1 on the season and an impressive 3-1 on the road. Riding a six game winning streak by an average of 5.5 points per game. Minnesota has learned how to enjoy a close shave week after week. WR Justin Jefferson (108.4 receiving yards per game) will be double teamed by the stout Bills secondary. If Minnesota can adjust to that before halftime, this game will be tight. Bills still don’t know what the playing status will be of QB Josh Allen until kickoff. Allen hurt his throwing shoulder in a Week 9 loss to the New York Jets (20-17). Case Keenum is the backup QB and Minnesota is relishing being a 5.5 point road underdog in big NFC vs. AFC matchup.
2. Arizona vs. Los Angeles Rams
Rematch of the 2022 NFL Wildcard Round Playoff game that the Los Angeles Rams won in convincing fashion at home (34-11). Cardinals enter this matchup at 3-6 after quality losses to Seattle and Minnesota. QB Kyler Murray will be a game time decision, with Colt McCoy ready to get the starting nod if necessary. Battering ram RB James Conner returned in Week 9 and is ready to carry the rock and score TDs on the road. Rams are in the same quandary at QB, with Matthew Stafford not having cleared concussion protocol as of Sunday morning. John Wolford took all of the practice snaps and reps this week, so he’ll be ready if needed. Usually this is a top-tier NFC West matchup, but both teams are struggling to find any form of consistency. Cardinals are a 2.5 point road underdog, but they’ll expose a one dimensional Rams offense for sixty minutes.
1. Detroit vs. Chicago
Old fashioned NFC Norris battle between two proud franchises. Which team will score a Gordie Howe hat trick? Lions snapped a five game losing streak by beating Green Bay in Week 9 (15-9). QB Jared Goff (2041 passing yards, 14 TDs) still hasn’t found firm footing in the Motor City. New set of snow tires might help. Defense is still ranked last in the NFL due to allowing 417.3 yards and 29.3 points per game. Bears unleased QB Justin Fields in Week 9 against the Dolphins. Fields threw for 123 passing yard and 3 TDs. Also ran for 178 rushing yards and 1 TD. NFL fans will remember a similar performance by 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick in the 2012 NFL playoffs (263 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, 181 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs). Will Chicago continue to groom Fields as the next “hybrid NFL QB,” or will they mess up that experiment? Time will tell. Lions are 2.5 point road underdogs, but have a feeling they’ll play hard into the fourth quarter at Solider Field.
Storylines Heading into Week 11
- Who is leading the NFL MVP race after Week 10? Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes?
- Which coach is on the hot seat after Week 10?
- Crank up the hype machine for Cowboys vs. Vikings and Chiefs vs. Chargers
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of Pro Football Top 5 Week 10 and try again in Week 11.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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