2022 Week 10 Picks Recap
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 35/50 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 23/50 correct
Overall picks – 58/100 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Pro Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh
Late afternoon kickoff (4:25 PM EST) from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on 11/20/22. Rematch of the Week 1 game that the Steelers won 23-20. Bengals enter this matchup at 5-4, with two quality wins (New York Jets, Miami), and one game out of first place in the AFC North Division. QB Joe Burrow (2535 passing yards, 18 TDs) is trying to use duct tape and bailing wire until star WR Ja’Marr Chase returns from a hip injury. Burrow needs to thank the entire Cincinnati defense for only allowing 324.0 yards and 20.6 points per game.
Steelers are coming off a win against New Orleans in Week 10 (20-10), but are a bad team at 3-6 on the season. Rookie QB Kenny Pickett has struggled to learn the offensive play formations (1161 passing yards, 2 TDs, 8 INTs). RB Najee Harris has been a step slow in most games, with only 460 rushing yards and 1 TD. WR corps officially threw up the surrender flag, when Chase Claypool was traded to Chicago on 11/1/22. Might be time for head coach Mike Tomlin to admit that 2022 is a rebuilding year and simply play out the string of games for the rest of the season.
Prediction: Cincinnati is a valid 3.5 point road favorite and they’ll cover winning by 7+ points
4. Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Primetime evening kickoff (8:20 PM EST) from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California on 11/20/22. Tasty AFC West matchup that already lived up to the hype in Week 2, with Kansas City winning at home (27-24). QB Patrick Mahomes (2936 passing yards, 25 TDs) has to be in the NFL MVP discussion, due to leading the Chiefs to a 7-2 record. Rushing game is still anemic despite averaging 109.2 yards per game. Passing game is clicking at 313.9 yards per game, but the Chiefs are doing it with four quality receivers in 2022, compared to two receivers in 2021. When will offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy get a head coaching offer? He’s overdue to say the least.
Chargers head into this game at 5-4 and coming off a tough loss to San Francisco in Week 10 (22-16). Have been bitten by the injury bug for the majority of the season and just placed two DLs on the IR list. Haven’t had a quality win yet in 2022, and that may come back to haunt the Chargers due to how deep the AFC is this season. QB Justin Herbert and RB Austin Ekeler continue to excel on the offensive side of the ball. Need all of their teammates to help out and get some defensive stops to stay competitive. That would help to steal a game or two and climb the playoff standings.
Prediction: Kansas City is a steady 5.5 point road favorite and they win by 4+ points due to this growing AFC West rivalry
3. San Francisco vs. Arizona
Primetime evening kickoff (8:15 PM EST) from Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico on 11/21/22. 49ers are riding a nice two game winning streak after beating the Los Angeles Chargers and completing a season sweep of the Los Angeles Rams. Currently a half game behind the NFC West leading Seahawks, but San Francisco will blow right past Seattle before Christmas. QB Jimmy Garoppolo (1931 passing yards, 11 TDs) continues to be the best insurance policy in the NFL this season. Newly acquired RB Christian McCaffrey is just getting warmed up in this new offense. Defense is top notch due to only giving up 280.6 yards and 18.1 points per game.
Cardinals have been a disappointment this season at 4-6, but enter this matchup with some momentum after beating the Los Angeles Rams in Week 10 (27-17). Backup QB Colt McCoy will most likely get the starting nod over Kyler Murray due to a bad hamstring injury. Need to keep handing and throwing the ball to RB James Connor (59 rushing yards, 2 TDs in Week 10). All that guy does is score touchdowns. Top three receivers (Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz) all have 40+ receptions and 400+ receiving yards on the season. Symmetry is a beautiful thing in architecture, but not in an offense being run by a backup QB.
Prediction: San Francisco is a strong 8.0 point neutral site favorite and they cover winning by 10 points
2. Cleveland vs. Buffalo
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York on 11/20/22. Experts are predicting severe winter weather at kickoff, with heavy snow and temperatures being in the low 20s. Perfect setting to get ready for holiday football, except that this game has now been moved to Detroit. Browns are 3-6 after losing to Miami in Week 10 (39-17). Due to the bad weather, expect QB Jacoby Brissett to hand off a lot to stud RB Nick Chubb (904 rushing yards, 11 TDs). Defense needs to tighten up in the red zone, due to allowing 26.4 points per game.
Bills were the beat team in the AFC, until losing back-to-back games to the New York Jets and Minnesota. Jets mounted a physical comeback in the second half and kept Josh Allen from improvising with his legs. Minnesota benefitted from Allen not being 100% healthy and creating four turnovers. Due to the pending bad weather, head coach Sean McDermott needs to focus his squad on running the ball, moving the chains on third down, not turning the ball over, and putting eight players in the box to stop Chubb. Very simple strategy that Buffalo can excel at, due to the support of their fans (the Bills Mafia).
Prediction: Buffalo is a shaky 8.0 point home favorite and they’ll win by 14 points
1. Philadelphia vs. Indianapolis
Lock of the week is an early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) on 11/20/22, from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. Eagles were served a piece of humble pie on 11/14/22 by Washington, in losing their first game of the season (32-21). That loss might be a blessing in disguise, since the Philadelphia defense is still only allowing 302.4 yards and 18.6 points per game. Defense couldn’t get off the field on critical third downs, due to being gashed for big yardage. That won’t happen against the anemic Indianapolis offense. QB Jalen Hurts and his offensive buddies will bounce back just fine this week.
Colts are coming off a win in Week 10 over Las Vegas (25-20). QB Matt Ryan was inserted back into the starting lineup and responded with 222 passing yards, 1 passing TD, 39 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD. All world RB Jonathan Taylor was back and 100% healthy, which led to 147 rushing yards and 1 TD. Indianapolis’ sudden offensive outburst, masks that they played a bad opponent (Raiders) and the random naming of Jeff Saturday as interim coach. Across social media, there’s been a steady flow of pro and con debates about that head coaching hire. Bill Cowher had the harshest analysis of the Colts picking a guy working from home. Time will tell if this hire will stick or if its simply a dog and pony show.
Prediction: Philadelphia is a strong 7.0 point road favorite and they cover due to winning by 10+ points
Pro Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Tennessee vs. Green Bay
Titans are resembling a MASH unit heading into this Thursday night matchup against the Packers. Tennessee is 6-3 and comfortably sitting in first place in the AFC South. Have won six out of their last seven games and have no problem grinding out victories the old fashioned way, by running the football and playing sound defense. Green Bay had a big OT win over Dallas in Week 10 (31-28). Rookie WR Christian Watson had a breakout game with 4 receptions for 107 receiving yards and 3 TDs. Packers are still struggling on defense and technically should have lost to the Cowboys, due to a bad play call in OT on fourth down. Despite being down five starting players due to injury, the Titans will make this a close game into the fourth quarter and try to flip the 3.0 point underdog betting line.
4. New York Jets vs. New England
AFC East rematch of the Week 8 game won by New England (22-17). Both teams are now suddenly within striking distance of the first place Miami Dolphins. Jets have won five out of their last six games, and are now buying into head coach Robert Saleh’s team philosophy of executing better when the game gets to the fourth quarter. RB Michael Carter is now the linchpin of this offense and he’ll have to move the chains. Patriots have cobbled together a 5-4 record and are on a two game winning streak. RB Rhamondre Stevenson (68.7 rushing yards per game) and WR Jakobi Meyers (65.3 receiving yards per game) are leading by example, but they need some help with depth from their teammates. Defense continues to bail out the offense due to only giving up 325.0 yards and 18.4 points per game. Jets are a 3.5 point road underdog, but they’ll push the Patriots around for sixty minutes.
3. Dallas vs. Minnesota
Technically the best game of the week, but the betting line is teasing this blogger to really focus on a potential upset. Cowboys are 6-3 heading into this matchup, but should be 7-2 after a tough OT loss to Green Bay in Week 10. Four of their remaining eight games are against teams with a below 0.500 record. In simpler words, Dallas has a cakewalk schedule to the playoffs, but they can’t ease up in a tight NFC East Division race with Philadelphia and the New York Giants. In today’s analytical world, most NFL coaches would call this predicament the “sweet spot” for a talented football squad. Vikings are still sky high after beating Buffalo in Week 10 on the road (33-30 in OT). Currently riding a seven game winning streak and are unflappable in tight games during the fourth quarter. Why didn’t the Broncos hire Kevin O’Connell as head coach instead of Nathaniel Hackett? Minnesota continues to take lemons and make lemonade. Cowboys are a shaky 1.5 point road favorite and the Vikings win this game in walk-off fashion. Beware of the Purple People Eaters, this is a legitimate Super Bowl caliber team.
2. Chicago vs. Atlanta
First ugga mugga game of the week. Bears are mired in a three game losing streak, despite losing the last two games by a combined four points. After having a statistical explosion in Week 9 against Miami, QB Justin Fields had a solid game against Detroit in Week 10 (167 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, 147 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs). Now Fields is officially “the man” on offense. Needs some help from the defensive unit to keep from falling behind in the second quarter, or getting critical stops in the fourth quarter. Chicago’s defense seems to enjoy playing in the first and third quarters only.
Falcons are one game out of first in the NFC South at 4-6. Currently on a two game losing streak and in search of a team identity. QB Marcus Mariota is having a nice bounce back season (1747 passing yards, 12 TDs), but rookie RB Tyler Allgeier is an every other week performer. WR Drake London (407 receiving yards, 3 TDs) has some moments, but he disappears for long stretches of playing time. TE Kyle Pitts continues to be underutilized with only 25 receptions. Head coaching seat has got to be getting warmer for Arthur Smith. Falcons are a 3.0 point home favorite, but they’ll have significant defensive issues trying to stop Fields from running up his statistics.
1. Las Vegas vs. Denver
Second ugga mugga game of the week. Two AFC West teams that want the 2022 NFL season to be deemed a do over. Raiders limp into this game at 2-7 and are 0-5 on the road. One of their victories was against Denver in Week 4 (32-23). Haven’t gelled on offense (22.6 points per game) or defense (25.1 points per game). Frankly look lost and disinterested playing for first year head coach Josh McDaniels. Hard pill to swallow when playing in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Broncos offense was stuck in neutral during Week 10 in Tennessee (lost 17-10), and is currently ranked last in the NFL due to only scoring 14.6 points per game. Laundry list of issues goes on for days, with injuries, bad coaching, suddenly aging QB Russell Wilson, trading DE Bradley Chubb to Miami, etc. This has been a lost season in the Mile High City and hopefully will be forgotten when the calendar flips to February 2023. Denver is somehow a 2.5 point home favorite, but the hostile Broncos Country fans will be boo birds as they lose another game to the Raiders.
Storylines Heading into Week 12
- Who is leading the NFL MVP race after Week 11? Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes?
- Which coach is on the hot seat after Week 11?
- Crank up the hype machine for Giants vs. Cowboys and Patriots vs. Vikings
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of Pro Football Top 5 Week 11 and try again in Week 12.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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