2022 Week 11 Picks Recap
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 40/55 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 25/55 correct
Overall picks – 65/110 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Pro Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Buffalo vs. Detroit
Early afternoon kickoff (12:30 PM EST) from Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan on 11/24/22. For the second straight week, the Bills will be playing in Detroit. Historic and treacherous snowfall caused Buffalo to have to play their Week 11 game in the Motor City, and they responded with a clutch win over Cleveland (31-23). Currently sitting at 7-3 and tied for first in the AFC East Division with Miami. Last easy game before a tough stretch of six games with five opponents being 0.500+ or better. QB Josh Allen seems to be close to 100% healthy. RB Devin Singletary is starting to run with confidence and authority. Watch out AFC East, the Bills will be rolling shortly.
Lions are on an impressive three game winning streak over the New York Giants, Chicago and Green Bay. QB Jared Goff has thrown for 538 passing yards, 3 TDs and only 1 INT during the current winning streak. RB Jamaal Williams is having a career year (668 rushing yards, 12 TDs). Defensive unit played their best game of the season in Week 11, holding the Giants to 413 total yards, 18 points, and creating 3 turnovers. Second year head coach Dan Campbell’s locker room talks and boisterous press conferences are starting to trickle down to every player and staff member. Stay tuned as progress continues.
Prediction: Buffalo is a solid 9.5 point road favorite and they’ll take care of business with a 10+ point victory
4. New York Giants vs. Dallas
Late afternoon kickoff (4:30 PM EST) from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on 11/24/22. A top notch NFC East matchup on Thanksgiving, that will be must watch viewing for all football fans. Both teams are 7-3 entering this matchup and two games behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Cowboys lead the historical series 72-47-2 and have won the last three meetings.
New York Giants are still trying to figure out what happened in a bad loss to Detroit in Week 11 (31-18). Three critical turnovers and a defense that suddenly couldn’t stop the run, made this squad look pedestrian and vulnerable. QB Daniel Jones and RB Saquon Barkely have been emulating Batman and Robin in Gotham City for most of the 2022 season. In Week 11 they couldn’t get their cars out of the 7-11 parking lot. A robust running attack (157.2 yards per game) and opportunistic scoring (20.5 points per game) will have to be dialed up to 11, to keep up with the hottest team in the NFL right now.
Cowboys hit their team stride in a Week 11 road demolition of Minnesota (40-3). RB Tony Pollard had a monster statistical game with 80 rushing yards, 109 receiving yards, and 2 TD receptions. Offense is incredibly balanced due to currently averaging 345.6 yards and 25.1 points per game. Defensive unit continues to tighten the screws each week and is only allowing 310.6 yards and 16.7 points per game. Seem to have the Giants number these days, due to having won ten out of the last eleven meetings. Cowboys relish playing the mid-day game on Thanksgiving and will show off all their bells and whistles.
Prediction: Dallas is a steady 9.5 point home favorite and they’ll win by 7 points
3. New England vs. Minnesota
Primetime evening kickoff (8:20 PM EST) from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota on 11/24/22. Nice desert matchup for the entire country to watch on Thanksgiving, as long as you can stomach Cris Collinsworth yammering about “two great franchises on different paths right now.” Patriots are 6-4 heading into this matchup and only one game behind Miami and Buffalo in the AFC East Division. Have won five out their last six games, and have their typical mid-season defensive unit dialed in for the stretch run. Were bailed out by their special teams unit, with an 84 yard TD punt return by Marcus Jones in the final seconds to beat the New York Jets in Week 11 (10-3).
Vikings were cruising along at 8-1 and then blew their car engine, transmission and all four tires in a loss to Dallas in Week 11 (40-3). Still have a comfortable four game lead in the NFC North Division, and are only one game behind Philadelphia for the #1 playoff seed in the NFC. Sometimes an unexpected blowout loss can wake up a good team, get them refocused and back on the long winning streak track. Three of the remaining seven opponents have a 0.500+ record, so just pencil the Vikings into the NFC playoffs and hope they regain their close game swagger late in the season.
Prediction: Minnesota is a shaky 2.5 point home favorite and they cover winning by 8 points
2. Green Bay vs. Philadelphia
Primetime evening kickoff (8:20 PM EST) from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on 11/27/22. What could have been an awesome holiday weekend finale game, has become the team that forgot how to win vs. the surprise squad of 2022. Packers come limping into this game having lost six of their last seven games. Were physically dominated by Tennessee in Week 11 (27-17). QB Aaron Rodgers is all over the map from week to week with his throwing accuracy. RB corps could carry this offense if given a chance. WR corps have been more misses than hits and seem to be waiting for Rodgers to get out of his funk. Eleven regular season games is a long time to figure out a team identity. It won’t happen in Week 12 either.
Eagles showed some major league onions in Week 11, with their come from behind road victory at Indianapolis (17-16). Could easily praise QB Jalen Hurts for scoring the winning TD run or the defense for shutting down all-world RB Jonathan Taylor after the first quarter. This blogger wants to applaud Philadelphia’s head coach Nick Sirianni, for showing emotions and how hard is to coach in the NFL.
After the defense held on for the victory, Sirianni ran to the players bench and jumped up on it to yell at some Philadelphia fans who had made the trip to Indianapolis. Can only assume that it was a guttural yell of relief, based on the fans facial reactions. Sirianni then went into the post game press conference and stated how badly he wanted to coach against his mentor, Frank Reich, who had been fired by the Colts one week earlier. In this day and age of me, me, me, it was refreshing to hear a professional coach praise and miss his working buddy. Don’t burn any bridges in life.
Prediction: Philadelphia is a rock solid 7.0 point home favorite and they’ll cover due to winning by 9+ points
1. Los Angeles Rams vs. Kansas City
Lock of the week is a late afternoon kickoff (4:25 PM EST) on 11/27/22, from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Rematch of the best game of the 2018 season, won by the Rams (54-51). Feels like yesterday the Rams were Super Bowl 56 Champions on their home field (SoFi Stadium) and they could dominate the NFC for another two to three seasons. DL Aaron Donald was talked out of early retirement, head coach Sean McVay got married, and QB Matthew Stafford made funny AT&T and Little Caesar’s commercials. Karma and off-season momentum are now a distant memory, due to being 3-7 heading into this game and having too many roster issues. No consistent running game, cutting and trying to trade RBs, last minute shoulder surgery for Stafford, and a bad high ankle injury for WR Cooper Kupp have caused 2022 to be a forgotten season.
Chiefs are 8-2 and riding an impressive four game winning streak. 2020 squad won regular season games almost too easily. 2021 squad took some time getting used to winning ugly games. 2022 squad seems to enjoy finding a different way to win each week based on the team they are facing. Fatherhood seems to be suiting QB Patrick Mahomes (3265 passing yards, 28 passing TDs) just fine. TE/WR corps is now five players deep, due to players stepping up during injuries and putting team goals first. Chiefs are back as must watch viewing on a weekly basis.
Prediction: Kansas City is a strong 14.5 point home favorite and they’ll cruise to a 10+ point win
Pro Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Cincinnati vs. Tennessee
Bengals are 6-4 heading into this matchup and are only one game behind Baltimore in the AFC North Division. WR Ja’Marr Chase is expected to return to game action for the first time, since missing three games with a hip injury. QB Joe Burrow has been lighting up the passing game over the past five games with 13 TDs and only 3 INTs. Titans are 7-3 and riding a two game winning streak. Have a comfortable 3.5 game lead in the AFC South. QB Ryan Tannehill’s return to the starting spot has steadied Tennessee’s offense and enables Mike Vrabel to call situational plays again. Cincinnati is a sensible 2.5 point road favorite, but the Titans will be in this game due to their dominant running game.
4. Pittsburgh vs. Indianapolis
This blogger had almost forgotten about the memorable 2006 AFC Divisional playoff game between the Steelers and Colts. The last five minutes of that game had more plot twists than most NFL seasons, and Pittsburgh escaped with a 21-18 victory. Stakes aren’t that high this week, but this matchup should be entertaining. Rookie QB Kenny Pickett is still a work in progress and his QBR has steadily risen over the past three games. Pittsburgh TE Pat Freiermuth (482 receiving yards, 1 TD) is starting to show flashes of his 2021 season form.
Colts played hard against Philadelphia in Week 11, before losing in the final two minutes (17-16). Interim coach Jeff Saturday has made a positive impact on locker room morale in two short weeks. RB Jonathan Taylor is licking his chops to run through Pittsburgh’s weak DL and soft LB corps. Colts are a shaky 2.5 point home favorite and have a feeling the Steelers are going to hang around for sixty minutes.
3. Tampa Bay vs. Cleveland
Buccaneers may have saved their season with back-to-back wins over Seattle and the Los Angeles Rams, to get to 5-5. Currently have a 0.5 game lead in the NFC South over Atlanta. Tampa Bay’s schedule is a cakewalk over the last seven weeks, due to playing against only two teams with a winning record. QB Tom Brady (2805 passing yards, 12 TDs) needs a consistent running game and a better defensive effort, to carry him towards another postseason run.
Browns didn’t enjoy their revised travel plans in Week 11, due to playing Buffalo in Detroit. Have lost six of their last seven games and haven’t won a close game since Week 1. RB Nick Chubb has had off games the last two weeks, and is due to explode this week to add to his season totals (923 rushing yards, 11 TDs). WR Amari Cooper continues to have a nice bounce back season by moving the chains. Tampa Bay knows how to slow a game down and have no issues winning ugly. Browns will be in this game in the third quarter despite being a 3.5 point home underdog.
2. Chicago vs. New York Jets
Weird NFC North vs. AFC East matchup. Really want to jump on the Bears bandwagon, due to QB Justin Fields big statistical performances in Weeks 9, 10 and 11. Fields looks to be the real deal as an NFL QB and revealed today that he’s playing with a separated left shoulder and will be a game time decision to start this week. That bandwagon just hit a big pothole and then jumped a sidewalk curb. New York Jets have decided to bench their starting QB Zach Wilson, after he made disparaging remarks about his teammates due to a backbreaking loss to the Patriots in Week 11 (10-3). Head coach Robert Salah is clearly showing that he demands accountability from his players, which is a breath of fresh air in professional sports. No matter which QB Chicago starts, the Bears will play loose and confident as a 6.0 point road underdog.
1. Baltimore vs. Jacksonville
Ravens are a quiet 7-3 team and 4-1 on the road in 2022. Have a one game lead in the AFC North Division over Cincinnati. QB Lamar Jackson continues to run a one man offense (1977 passing yards, 16 passing TDs, 666 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs). Defense is already gelling due to only allowing 336.2 yards and 19.9 points per game. Jaguars are an improved squad compared to the 2021 season, but are only 3-7. Have lost six of their last seven games, but are playing teams close to the final buzzer. QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne Jr. will try to recreate their college football chemistry as a 4.0 point home underdog.
Storylines Heading into Week 13
- Who is leading the NFL MVP race after Week 12? Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes?
- Which coach is on the hot seat after Week 12?
- Crank up the hype machine for Bills vs. Patriots and Chiefs vs. Bengals
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of Pro Football Top 5 Week 12 and try again in Week 13.
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