Pro Football Top 5 Exciting Games Week 13 – 2022

This article covers predicted Pro Football top 5 games to watch and top 5 upsets. Thursday night football is right around the corner on 12/1/22 and that means pro football is starting. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl 55 at their home field (Raymond James Stadium) to close out the 2020 NFL season. Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl 56 at their home field (SoFi Stadium) to close out the 2021 NFL season. Since trends usually happen in threes, will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona? Time will tell after eighteen weeks of the regular season.

2022 Week 12 Picks Recap

Top 5 games to watch – 5/5 correct thanks to Buffalo, Dallas, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Kansas City

Top 5 upsets that could happen – 3/5 correct thanks to Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Jacksonville

Overall picks – 8/10 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean

2022 All Picks Recap

Top 5 games to watch – 45/60 correct

Top 5 upsets that could happen – 28/60 correct

Overall picks – 73/120 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean

Pro Football Top 5 Games to Watch

5. Buffalo vs. New England

Primetime evening kickoff (8:15 PM EST) from Gillette Field in Foxboro, Massachusetts on 12/1/22. Rematch of the 2021 AFC Wildcard playoff game that the Bills won easily on 1/15/22 (47-17). Buffalo is 8-3 and riding a modest two game winning streak. Were blowing teams out early in the seasons and now seem comfortable being in tight games. Will see a ton of pitch and catch between QB Josh Allen (3183 passing yards, 23 TDs) and WR Stefon Diggs (1110 receiving yards, 9 TDs). Allen now leads the team in rushing (561 rushing yards, 5 TDs), which means the calendar is turning to December.

Patriots enter this matchup at 6-5 and are trying to forget a close loss to Minnesota on Thanksgiving night (33-26). Four of their remaining six games are against opponents with winning records. QB Mac Jones has been trending up over the last five games and peaked against the Vikings in Week 12 with 382 passing yards and 2 TDs. RB Rhamondre Stevenson has been regressing in the running game during the past five games, but his receiving game continues to tick up. Maybe Bill Belichick prefers a screen pass to move the chains, instead of an off tackle run. Times and trends continue to change in 2022.

Prediction: Buffalo is a 3.5 point road favorite and they’ll grind out a 6 point win

4. New York Jets vs. Minnesota

Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EST) from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota on 12/4/22. Tasty AFC East vs. NFC North matchup of two teams hitting their stride. Jets are 7-4 and currently one game behind Miami and Buffalo. Week two of the Mike White experiment at QB for head coach Robert Salah and his squad. White threw for 315 passing yards and 3 TDs in a win over Chicago in Week 12 (31-10). Rookie RB Zonovan Knight had his first official start in Week 12 and responded with 69 rushing yards, but he’s undersized (5′-10″, 209 lbs). Will need to rely on their top notch defense (308.8 yards and 17.8 points per game allowed) to keep up with the Vikings offense.

Minnesota is cruising along at 9-2 and have a comfortable five game lead in the NFC North. Offense is humming in fifth gear with QB Kirk Cousins (19 total TDs), RB Dalvin Cook (7 total TDs) and WR Justin Jefferson (6 total TDs) having fun on every single snap. Jefferson has exploded this season with 1232 receiving yards (112.0 yards per game). Current Achilles heel is the defensive unit giving up 390.7 yards and 23.4 points per game. Bend but don’t break defensive philosophy is working so far, but there will be a future playoff game when the defense will have to carry the offense.

Prediction: Minnesota is a shaky 3.0 point home favorite, but they’ll find a different gear in the second half to win by 9 points

3. Tennessee vs. Philadelphia

Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EST) from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on 12/4/22. Intriguing matchup of an AFC South team that focuses on running the ball, going against an NFC East team with the most diverse offense in the NFL. Titans are 7-4 and have won seven of their last nine games. Stud RB Derrick Henry has been incredibly quiet on the stat sheet during the last three games, despite averaging 95.3 rushing yards per game and scoring 10 TDs. If someone from a five deep WR/TE corps could emerge as a go-to receiver, this offense wouldn’t be so one-dimensional. Defense is only allowing 351.3 yards and 18.6 points per game.

Eagles have the best record in the NFL at 10-1 and are on a two game winning streak. Currently 5-1 at home and playing with confidence. QB Jalen Hurts isn’t mentioned as a potential NFL MVP candidate, but he’s having a phenomenal statistical season (2560 passing yards, 17 passing TDs, 597 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs). RB Miles Sanders is churning out 81.8 yards per game and WR A.J. Brown (831 receiving yards, 7 TDs) has been a perfect fit in this offense. Defensive unit is starting to get after the opposing QB, due to racking up 36 sacks through 11 games (3.3 sacks per game). Currently the best team in the NFC and multi-faceted on both sides of the ball.

Prediction: Philadelphia is a solid 5.0 point home favorite and they’ll win by 8+ points

2. Kansas City vs. Cincinnati

Late afternoon kickoff (4:25 PM EST) from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio on 12/4/22. Rematch of the 2021 AFC Championship Game the Bengals won on 1/30/22 (27-24 in OT). Chiefs are 9-2 and riding a solid five game winning streak. Have a cakewalk to get to the end of the 2022 season, due to only facing two teams with winning records over the last six weeks. QB Patrick Mahomes (3585 passing yards, 30 total TDs) is the clubhouse leader for NFL MVP, and he just welcomed his second kid to the world on 11/28/22. Rookie RB Isiah Pacheco (455 rushing yards, 2 TDs) seems to be ready for the spotlight, with RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire being on the IL. Defensive unit has improved in all statistical categories and is only giving up 22.1 points per game.

Cincinnati enters this game at 7-4 and tied with Baltimore for first place in the AFC North. Currently on a three game winning streak, punctuated by a gut check victory over Tennessee in Week 12 (20-16). QB Joe Burrow (3160 passing yards, 23 TDs) continues to carry the offensive unit until WR Ja’Marr Chase returns from injury. WR Tee Higgins had a monster game in Week 12 with 9 receptions for 114 receiving yards and 1 TD. RB Samaje Perine will continue to carry the rushing load, until RB Joe Mixon returns to game action after clearing concussion protocols. Defense currently surrenders 328.3 yards and 21.0 points per game.

Prediction: Kansas City is a rock solid 2.0 point road favorite and they’ll win an entertaining game by 4 points

1. Indianapolis vs. Dallas

Lock of the week is a primetime evening kickoff (8:20 PM EST) on 12/4/22, from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Colts have improved under interim head coach Jeff Saturday, but all of the talking heads are wondering why he didn’t use any timeouts during the last possession in Week 12 against Pittsburgh (24-17 loss). Can’t remember a season with the shear number of bad clock management scenarios across the NFL that has happened in 2022. QB Matt Ryan has rebounded nicely since being inserted back into the starting lineup (2642 passing yards, 11 TDs). RB Jonathan Taylor is just getting warmed up to be a workhorse again.

Cowboys are 8-3 and have back-to-back wins over the New York Giants and Minnesota. Sitting two games behind Philadelphia in a tough NFC East Division race. QB Dak Prescott has steadily improved his passing statistics the last three games, but is still prone to throw momentum changing interceptions. RB Tony Pollard (761 rushing yards, 8 total TDs) has been a juggernaut the last five games, and the offensive formations are trying to get him as many touches as possible. WR CeeDee Lamb is starting to act and play like a team leader. Defense continues to gel and only allows 17.0 points per game.

Prediction: Dallas is a legitimate 11.0 point home favorite and they’ll cruise to a 14+ point win

Pro Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen

5. Green Bay vs. Chicago

Packers have officially entered the Twilight Zone at the QB position, due to Aaron Rodgers having a rib injury and being replaced by Jordan Love in Week 12 against Philadelphia (40-33 loss). Love seems to be the heir apparent to Rodgers, but there’s too much scar tissue from the 2020 off-season to now, that will cloud Green Bay’s decision. The exact opposite scenario played out in late 2007, when Rodgers was inserted after Brett Favre was injured. Time will tell what happens.

Bears are one of the most dysfunctional organizations in the NFL, currently 3-9 on the season and stuck in a five game losing streak. Mercurial QB Justin Fields is expected to play this week, despite nursing a sore shoulder. If Fields can find some on-field chemistry with newly acquired WR Chase Claypool, Da Bears might be able to flip the betting line from 3.0 point home underdogs to an upset victory. This game will be bumpy from start to finish, but if Love plays well, get ready for more reality television drama from Lambeau Field for the rest of the season…uff da.

4. Jacksonville vs. Detroit

This blogger has never been more excited to watch two teams with identical 4-7 season records, to play on the first Sunday in December. Jacksonville decided to double down late against Baltimore in Week 12, by completing a two point conversion to win 28-27. Almost squandered their hole card by letting PK Jason Tucker attempt a game winning 67 yard FG that came up just short. Head coach Doug Pederson has his squad headed in the right direction.

Lions almost extended their three game winning streak to four games on Thanksgiving. Buffalo squeaked out a 28-25 road win with a 45 yard walk off FG. Jared Goff has found his footing as the starting QB (2682 passing yards, 17 TDs) and RB Jamaal Williams continues to pad his career season (734 rushing yards, 13 TDs). Head coach Dan Campbell has turned the Lions ship around and now he’ll continue to steer to more wins. This is almost a coin toss game with Jacksonville being a 1.0 point road favorite, but the Lions will hang around for sixty minutes. No matter the final score, this blogger can easily picture Pederson and Campbell having a post game drink at a Motor City watering hole to compare coaching notes. Arm wrestling match might break out as well.

3. Washington vs. New York Giants

Critical NFC East Division game, to not only keep pace with Philadelphia and Dallas, but also stay in the NFC Wildcard race. Commanders are 7-5 due to winning six of their last seven games. Season defining road win over the Eagles in Week 10 (32-21), has QB Taylor Heinicke and his offensive unit playing sound football right now. WR Terry McLaurin is almost much watch television on Sundays right now (840 receiving yards, 2 TDs). Head coach Ron Rivera doesn’t get enough credit for having a steady hand on the field, while this organization is literally a joke in the front office.

Giants are 7-4 and trending backwards due to losing three of their last four games. QB Daniel Jones and RB Saquon Barkley, need to get more contributions from their teammates to diversify the offense. Until that happens, the New York’s overtaxed defense will need to tighten up. Washington is a 2.5 point road favorite, but have a feeling the G-Men will play hard for four quarters.

2. Miami vs. San Francisco

On paper this is one of the best matchups of Week 13, but the betting line is too tempting to pass up as a potential upset. Dolphins are 8-3 and riding a five game winning streak. That streak is a bit of a mirage due to all five wins being against teams with losing records. QB Tua Tagovailoa has made a monumental statistical leap in his third professional season (2564 passing yards, 17 TDs). More importantly, he’s commanding the huddle and his head coach trusts him. Helps to have WR Tyreek Hill (1233 receiving yards, 4 TDs) as a safety valve, when the OL starts to leak oil.

49ers are 7-4 and have a one game lead over Seattle in the NFC West. No coincidence that as the roster has gotten healthy, a four game winning steak has happened. QB Jimmy Garappolo continues to be a solid game manager. RB Christian McCaffrey is being utilized as a Swiss Army knife to keep defenses guessing. San Francisco’s best player, Deebo Samuel, is still getting his touches and changing games with one-to-two plays. 49ers are a solid 4.0 point home favorite, but the Dolphins defense will be adjusting on the fly and this game will be decided on the final possession.

1. Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas

Old fashioned AFC West Division battle between the Chargers (6-5) and the Raiders (4-7). Los Angeles Chargers are probably the biggest tease in the NFL, due to their quick strike offense. Are a very respectable 4-2 on the road this season. Las Vegas was a forgotten team after Week 10 at 2-7, and then decided to win back-to-back games in OT via walk off fashion (beat Denver 22-16 and Seattle 40-34). Teams played each other in Week 1 and the Chargers won 24-19. Betting line has fluctuated daily this week, which reconfirms that the Raiders are due for a signature home win.

Storylines Heading into Week 14

• Who is leading the NFL MVP race after Week 13? Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes?
• Which coach is on the hot seat after Week 13?
• Crank up the hype machine for Jets vs. Bills and Eagles vs. Giants

Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of Pro Football Top 5 Week 13 and try again in Week 14.

Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!

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