Pro Football Top 5 Exciting Games Week 16 – 2022

This article covers predicted Pro Football top 5 games to watch and top 5 upsets. Thursday night football is right around the corner on 12/22/22 and that means pro football is starting. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl 55 at their home field (Raymond James Stadium) to close out the 2020 NFL season. Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl 56 at their home field (SoFi Stadium) to close out the 2021 NFL season. Since trends usually happen in threes, will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona? Time will tell after eighteen weeks of the regular season.

2022 Week 15 Picks Recap

Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 correct thanks to Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo, Cincinnati and Philadelphia

Top 5 upsets that could happen – 3/5 correct thanks to Detroit, Las Vegas and New York Giants

Overall picks – 7/10 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean

2022 All Picks Recap

Top 5 games to watch – 57/75 correct

Top 5 upsets that could happen – 35/75 correct

Overall picks – 92/150 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean

Pro Football Top 5 Games to Watch

5. Cincinnati vs. New England

Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EDT) from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts on 12/24/22. Bengals are cruising along at 10-4 and riding an impressive six game winning streak. Trailed the Buccaneers last week at halftime (17-3) and then found another gear to score thirty-one straight points. College buddies (LSU) QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase were named to the AFC Pro Bowl team this week. Currently have a one game lead in the AFC North over Baltimore. Last three games of the regular season will test the intestinal fortitude of this squad (New England, Buffalo, Baltimore).

Patriots made the biggest play gaffe of the 2022 regular season in Week 15 against Las Vegas. Now sitting at 7-7 and are one game behind the #7 seed in the AFC playoffs bracket. Head coach Bill Belichick has his hardest work assignment yet, due to picking up the pieces of a slow offense and pushing an above average defense. Injuries to their RB corps will necessitate QB Mac Jones to stretch the field more with deep passes, which isn’t his current forte. Will make some noise in the AFC East Division race with games left against Miami and Buffalo.

Prediction: Cincinnati is a steady 3.0 point road favorite and they’ll keep their train rolling with a 7+ point victory

4. Detroit vs. Carolina

Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EDT) from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina on 12/24/22. How long has the 2022 regular season been running? The Lions used to be the laughing stock of the NFL and now they are 7-7, thanks to an impressive three game winning streak (New York Jets, Minnesota, Jacksonville). Head coach Dan Campbell is starting to see the fruits of his hard labor, as Detroit’s ship is sailing in smooth seas. Now they get to navigate being a team with a target on their back, instead of sneaking up on teams. Have an easy schedule to finish the season (Carolina, Chicago, Green Bay). On track to make some noise in the NFC playoffs bracket.

Panthers were sitting at 2-7 after Week 9 and have rallied to get back into the weak NFC South Division race at 5-9. Somehow, someway, Carolina is only trailing first place Tampa Bay by one game. Since cutting Baker Mayfield on 12/5/22, QB Sam Darnold has led this squad to two wins in their last three games. RB D’Onta Freeman has had two bad statistical games and is due for a breakout performance. WR DJ Moore (678 receiving yards, 5 TDs) is having a productive season. Anything can and will happen in the NFC South division during the last three weeks of the regular season. Game on!

Prediction: Detroit is a solid 2.5 point road favorite and they win by 3 points in walk-off fashion

3. Washington vs. San Francisco

Late afternoon kickoff (4:05 PM EST) from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California on 12/24/22. Commanders are trying to regroup after a tie and loss to the New York Giants in Weeks 13 and 15. Currently sitting in the #7 slot of the NFC playoffs, with Seattle only a half game back. QB Taylor Heinicke (1693 passing yards, 10 TDs) has been a steadying influence in the huddle and on team charter flights. WR Terry McLaurin (1015 receiving yards, 3 TDs) is due for a big game and to put an exclamation point on being named to the NFC Pro Bowl team earlier this week.

49ers clinched the NFC West Division title last week with a physical win over Seattle (21-13). Now they are playing to improve their NFC playoff slot and getting ready for a deep run. Currently sitting in the #3 NFC slot and have a legitimate shot at passing Minnesota for the #2 slot. Mr. Irrelevant QB Brock Purdy (678 passing yards, 6 TDs) is questionable for this game due to an oblique/ribs injury, but will most likely play. San Francisco is on a seven game winning streak and playing their best football of the season right now.

Prediction: San Francisco is a 7.0 point home favorite and they’ll win by 10+ points

2. Los Angeles Chargers vs. Indianapolis

Primetime evening kickoff (8:15 PM EST) from Lucas Oli Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana on 12/26/22. Chargers seem to have taken over the Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football time slot for the last month of the 2022 NFL regular season. That’s what happens when a team wins three of their last four games and is quickly moving up the AFC playoffs bracket (currently #6). QB Justin Herbert (21 passing TDs) and RB Austin Ekeler (13 total TDs) continue to have big workloads. WRs Joshua Palmer and Mike Williams have been productive on third downs during the month of December. Chargers are hot right now and enjoy the ride as long as it lasts.

Colts set a bad record in their historic loss to Minnesota (39-36 in OT) in Week 15. Indianapolis led 33-0, before the Vikings woke up playing at home and started the biggest comeback in NFL history. Interim head coach Jeff Saturday is now 0-4 and future Hall of Fame QB Matt Ryan has been benched in favor of Nick Foles. To make matters even worse, fantasy stud RB Jonathan Taylor is now out for the season due to a badly injured ankle. Time for Indianapolis to play for a high draft pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and remember their OT win in Week 5 on the road against Denver (12-9).

Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers are a solid 4.5 point road favorite and they win by 7 points

1. Seattle vs. Kansas City

Lock of the week is an early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) on 12/24/22, from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Seahawks dream of winning the NFC West Division title was squashed last week by San Francisco. Seattle has lost four of their last five games, which led to the 49ers not only catching them but blowing by on the interstate. QB Geno Smith (3671 passing yards, 26 TDs) has been a diamond in the rough and deserved being named to the NFC Pro Bowl team. Time for WR DK Metcalf and rookie RB Kenneth Walker III to carry the heavy load, if this squad wants to make the playoffs.

Chiefs have won seven of their last eight games, despite struggling against Denver in Week 14 and Houston in Week 15. Have a legitimate chance to finish the regular season at 14-3, due to three straight “manageable” opponents left (Seattle, Denver, Las Vegas). QB Patrick Mahomes (4496 passing yards, 35 TDs) is still the leading NFL MVP candidate. Seventh round draft pick RB Isaiah Pacheco (677 rushing yards, 3 TDs), has shown a big play ability and deep hunger that is rare these days for rookies. Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy continue to push this offense to new heights on a weekly basis.

Prediction: Kansas City is a big 10.0 point home favorite and they win by 11+ points

Pro Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen

5. Jacksonville vs. New York Jets

Jaguars have won two games in a row (Dallas, Tennessee) and are catching up to rest of the AFC at 6-8. Jacksonville’s offense is averaging 367.9 yards and 23.9 points per game. Defense is still a work in progress due to allowing 370.7 yards and 23.4 points per game. Jets are skidding with a three game losing streak to back up to 7-7 on the season. QB Zach Wilson gets his second straight start to try and win his teammates back on the field and in the locker room. Season passing completion rate of 54.9% is way too low to be a legitimate AFC playoff team. Jaguars play loose and confident in the best city in the world despite being 2.5 point road underdogs.

4. Las Vegas vs. Pittsburgh

Raiders are suddenly back in the AFC playoff hunt at 6-8, due to the early Christmas gift they received via lateral from New England in Week 15. QB Derek Carr and WR Davante Adams continue to play free lance football, like they did on the elementary school playground. RB Josh Jacobs (1495 rushing yards, 11 TDs) is the team MVP due to being the glue guy on the roster. Steelers will be playing this game with a heavy heart, due to the passing of an icon from the 1970s teams, RB Franco Harris. Hard to believe its been fifty years since The Immaculate Reception, and its just a coincidence the same two teams play this week to try and climb the AFC playoff ladder. Steelers are a 2.5 point home favorite, but the Raiders are playing better football right now and trending in the right direction.

3. New York Giants vs. Minnesota

Giants got back on the winning track in Week 15 against Washington (20-12). Currently sitting in the #6 NFC playoff slot and in control of their own destiny. Huge road test against the #2 seed Vikings, will show if the G-Men are ready to put up or shut up during the regular season stretch run. RB Saquon Barkley had his best all-around game since Week 10 with 87 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD and 33 receiving yards. Minnesota is still trying to comprehend how they just completed the largest comeback in NFL history (33 points) against the Colts in Week 15, winning 39-36 in OT. After expending significant physical and mental energy in Week 15, the Vikings are due for a letdown at home despite being a 4.0 point favorite. The Men in Blue find a way to stay close into the fourth quarter.

2. Philadelphia vs. Dallas

Big NFC East matchup and a rematch of the Week 6 game won by the Eagles (26-17). All of the talking heads and sports experts are wondering if Philadelphia’s QB Jalen Hurts, will or won’t play this game due to having an injured shoulder. Hurts was officially ruled out on 12/22/22, so Gardner Minshew will get the starting nod. Besides playing for Mike Leach at Washington State in 2018, Minshew had a memorable rookie season in 2019 for Jacksonville. Went 6-6 in the twelve games he started.

Cowboys were beat by the Jaguars in Week 15 due to throwing a pick six in OT (40-34). QB Dak Prescott will have to rally the locker room and compliment his defense, since a promising season is looking like a #5 or #6 NFC playoff seed due to how strong the NFC East is. That type of predicament could cause the emotional Cowboys to become unfocused and lazy. Eagles are 4.5 point road underdogs and won’t be intimidated playing at Jerry’s World.

1. Green Bay vs. Miami

Interconference matchup that has playoff implications for both the NFC and AFC. Packers were written off two weeks ago, and now they are relevant at 6-8 due to a two game winning streak. Hate to admit that a squad with Aaron Rodgers at QB, always has a chance to make some noise in a playoff race and anything is possible in December. Dolphins were coasting along at 8-3 and are now skidding due to an ill-timed three game losing streak. Still clinging to the #7 seed in the AFC playoff bracket, but need to ratchet up their defense and have Tua run the offense at a high level. Miami is a sound 4.0 point home favorite, but Green Bay will be ready to play for all sixty minutes. Could end up being an aerial score fest on Christmas afternoon.

Storylines Heading into Week 17

• Who is leading the NFL MVP race after Week 16? Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes?
• Which coach is on the hot seat after Week 16?
• Crank up the hype machine for Steelers vs. Ravens and Bills vs. Bengals

Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of Pro Football Top 5 Week 16 and try again in Week 17.

Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!

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