Pro Football Top 5 Exciting Games Week 17 – 2022

This article covers predicted Pro Football top 5 games to watch and top 5 upsets. Thursday night football is right around the corner on 12/29/22 and that means pro football is starting. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl 55 at their home field (Raymond James Stadium) to close out the 2020 NFL season. Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl 56 at their home field (SoFi Stadium) to close out the 2021 NFL season. Since trends usually happen in threes, will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona? Time will tell after eighteen weeks of the regular season.

2022 Week 16 Picks Recap

Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 correct thanks to Cincinnati, San Francisco, Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City

Top 5 upsets that could happen – 2/5 correct thanks to Jacksonville and Green Bay

Overall picks – 6/10 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean

2022 All Picks Recap

Top 5 games to watch – 61/80 correct

Top 5 upsets that could happen – 37/80 correct

Overall picks – 98/160 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean

Pro Football Top 5 Games to Watch

5. Cleveland vs. Washington

Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EDT) from FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland on 1/1/23. Browns have officially been eliminated from the 2022 NFL Playoffs and are sitting at 6-9. Have won three out of their last five games. Newly acquired QB Deshaun Watson has started the last four games for Cleveland and all this blogger can write about him is…whatever. RB Nick Chubb (1344 rushing yards, 12 TDs) continues to have a solid season. WR Amari Cooper eclipsed the 1000 receiving yards mark in Week 16 (1004 receiving yards, 7 TDs), and could be a potential comeback player of the year candidate. Brownies will now need to be spoilers in the kitchen during Weeks 17 and 18.

Commanders are 7-7-1 and firmly in control of their NFC playoff bracket destiny. Currently sitting in the #7 NFC slot and a half game ahead of Seattle, Detroit and Green Bay. Need to take care of business this week, before game planning about the streaky Dallas Cowboys in Week 18. QB Carson Wentz (1612 passing yards, 11 TDs) gets the starting nod this week. Wentz will either flourish or flounder on the big stage during the next two games. There’s no middle grey area with this decision by underrated head coach Ron Rivera.

Prediction: Washington is a steady 2.0 point home favorite and they’ll win a bumpy game by 7+ points

4. Los Angeles Rams vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Late afternoon kickoff (4:25 PM EDT) from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California on 1/1/23. This blogger thought The Battle of Los Angeles was a 1999 CD/record released by Rage Against the Machine. This matchup was more attractive on paper in August 2022, before the defending Super Bowl champion Rams regressed to a 5-10 record. Injuries, one dimensional offense and lack of effort have caused this downward spiral. If head coach Sean McVay decides to move onto the analyst’s booth for Amazon Prime Thursday Night Football broadcasts in 2023, would Sean Payton considering jumping into the Rams franchise? Marinate on that coaching rumor until its proven incorrect by the middle of next week.

Chargers are peaking at the correct time with a three game winning streak to get to 9-6. Should finish with two more wins (Los Angeles Rams, Denver) based on strength of schedule. Currently in the #6 AFC playoff slot and have officially clinched a playoff berth. Head coach Brandon Staley and stud QB Justin Hebert (4254 passing yards, 21 TDs), seem to be on the same page now. Chargers offensive play calling doesn’t need to rely on crazy analytics on fourth downs for the time being. Move the chains, score points and play opportunistic defense still gets the job done in 2022.

Prediction: Chargers are a big 6.5 point “shared home” favorite and will win by 10 points

3. Buffalo vs. Cincinnati

Primetime evening kickoff (8:30 PM EST) from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio on 1/2/23. Best game of Week 17, with huge AFC playoff implications based on which team ends up victorious. Bills are 12-3 and the current #1 seed in the AFC playoffs bracket. Riding a six game winning streak and their offense is running smoothly on all cylinders. QB Josh Allen (4029 passing yards, 32 TD passes, 746 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs) and WR Stefon Diggs (1325 receiving yards, 10 TDs), have found a different level to elevate the entire offense. RB Devin Singletary (790 rushing yards, 5 TDs) continues to move the chains and keep the opposing defense honest.

Bengals are 11-4 and the current #3 seed in the AFC playoffs bracket. On a seven game winning streak and getting a little too confident about their chances on New Years Day. RB Joe Mixon (787 rushing yards, 6 TDs) decided to provide some bulletin board material on New Years Eve, stating that “We the big dog of the AFC.” Don’t know if Mixon realizes that comments like that usually come back as a two ton card of karma, or that he needs to use proper grammar. Bengals are a solid squad and road tested after their Super Bowl 56 run, but the Bills are on a mission in 2022 to conquer the AFC.

Prediction: Buffalo is a sneaky 1.5 point road favorite and they’ll win by 3 points in walk-off fashion

2. Chicago vs. Detroit

Afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan on 1/1/23. Old fashioned NFC North matchup, with the lowly Bears at 3-12 taking on the Lions at 7-8. Chicago is on an atrocious eight game losing streak. QB Justin Fields is still blossoming into a dual threat playmaker (2167 passing yards, 16 passing TDs, 1011 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs). For some reason the coaching staff doesn’t want to develop any of the other players on offense. Defensive unit is still a sieve due to allowing 360.3 yards and 26.2 points per game. No wonder the Bears are looking for another new president to run this moribund franchise.

Lions took a step backwards in Week 16, due to losing badly to Carolina (37-23). Only a half game out of the NFC playoff bracket, but they have winnable games against Chicago and Green Bay to close out the regular season. Have won six out of their last eight games to show that its not how you start, but its how you finish that matters. QB Jared Goff (3959 passing yards, 26 TDs) has to be the leading candidate for NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Took him a year to get used to the Midwest winters and now he’s thriving playing for a players coach, Dan Campbell. Keep an eye on the Lions in 2023, because they’ll be a fun team to watch.

Prediction: Detroit is a solid 6.0 point home favorite and they win by 9 points

1. San Francisco vs. Las Vegas

Lock of the week is a late afternoon kickoff (4:05 PM EST) on 1/1/23, from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. 49ers are playing with house money, having already clinched the NFC West and sitting in the #3 NFC playoff slot. Could move up to the #2 slot if Minnesota stumbles. Due to being 11-4 and having a healthy roster, head coach Kyle Shanahan can continue to design plays for RB Christian McCaffrey. With star WR Deebo Samuel out with an injured knee, WR Brandon Aiyuk (855 receiving yards, 7 TDs) has emerged as a top tier target. No one wants to play San Francisco in the playoffs.

Raiders lost an emotional game at Pittsburgh in Week 16 (13-10), due to the passing of Franco Harris earlier in the week. That loss eliminated Las Vegas from the AFC playoffs and caused a questionable move by head coach Josh McDaniels. Starting QB Derek Carr has been benched for the final two games of the season for Jarrett Stidham. Stidham and third string QB Chase Garbers will see live game action, in order to help the coaching staff address roster needs for the 2023 season. This type of move usually occurs in MLB, during August and September for teams out of the playoff race. McDaniels continues to make bush league decisions during his second head coaching stint and he needs a dose of reality sooner than later.

Prediction: San Francisco is a healthy 9.5 point road favorite and they roll to a 14+ point win

Pro Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen

5. Miami vs. New England

Two AFC East teams that historically don’t like each other much. Dolphins are mired in a four game losing streak, and won’t have Tua Tagovailoa available at QB due to being in concussion protocol. Teddy Bridgewater gets the starting nod, and will try to keep Miami in the AFC playoffs hunt with a badly needed road win. Patriots are sleep walking at 7-8, after back-to-back losses to Las Vegas and Cincinnati. Currently one game behind the #7 seed in the AFC playoffs bracket, and frankly New England doesn’t deserve to make the post season due to their inconsistent play from week to week. Miami is a 2.5 point road underdog, but their defense will make the Patriots uncomfortable for sixty minutes.

4. Carolina vs. Tampa Bay

Key NFC South matchup between the Panthers (6-9) vs. the Buccaneers (7-8). Winner of this game will be in first place in the NFC South and in the drivers seat for the #4 seed in the NFC playoffs. Due to the absolute pain in takes to analyze an NFL division that will most likely send a sub 0.500 team (i.e. losing team) to the playoffs, once left for dead Carolina will give Tampa Bay and QB Tom Brady fits despite being a 3.5 point road underdog.

3. Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore

One of the best NFL rivalries will be rekindled this week, with the Steelers (7-8) visiting the Ravens (10-5). Pittsburgh has won four of their last five games to crawl back into the AFC playoffs picture. Only loss during that streak was to the Ravens in Week 14 (16-14). RB Najee Harris is starting to run with authority again and rookie QB Kenny Pickett might eat pressure for breakfast. Baltimore is already in the AFC playoffs bracket at 10-5, and are simply playing to improve their seating. Have won three of their last four games too, but haven’t had QB Lamar Jackson at full health since 11/27/22. Pittsburgh is a 2.0 point road underdog, but this game will come down to the final series. Mike Tomlin’s winning seasons streak needs to be extended.

2. New York Jets vs. Seattle

Jets are treading water at 7-8 and have a full blown controversy at QB, with Zach Wilson continuing to play as bad as Russell Wilson. Mike White gets the call again after recovering from a rib injury. Wilson’s short career in New York might be done. RB Zonovan Knight has worn down badly the last two games. Rookie WR Garrett Wilson has had a quiet season, despite reaching gaudy statistics (996 receiving yards, 4 TDs). Seahawks have picked a bad time to lose three straight games. Currently a half game out of the NFC playoffs bracket, but could make some noise with wins against the Jets and Rams. Seattle is an inexplicable 1.5 point home underdog and their fan base (the 12s), will make a difference into the fourth quarter.

1. Minnesota vs. Green Bay

Purely looking at the betting line for this matchup. Vikings are a 3.0 point road underdog heading into Lambeau Field. Minnesota will be the new NFC North Division champion for the 2022 regular season. Green Bay has shown some glimpses of solid play during a three game winning streak (Chicago, Los Angeles Rams, Miami). Reality will set in quickly, when WR Justin Jefferson gives an encore performance to what he did in Week 1 against Green Bay (184 receiving yards, 2 TDs). To heck with the current betting line, Vikings get another close road win.

Storylines Heading into Week 18

• Who is leading the NFL MVP race after Week 17? Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes?
• Which coach is on the hot seat after Week 17?
• Crank up the hype machine for Patriots vs. Bills and Giants vs. Eagles

Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of Pro Football Top 5 Week 17 and try again in Week 18.

Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!

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