2022 Week 17 Picks Recap
2022 All Picks Recap
Pro Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Baltimore vs. Cincinnati
Week 17 in the NFL
Due to the unfortunate event that happened during the Buffalo vs. Cincinnati game on 1/2/23 with Bills safety Damar Hamlin, this blogger has paused his NFL thoughts for the entire week. Sports fans are blessed in North America to have an outlet, to support and cheer on their favorite team(s) during the entire calendar year. At the end of the day, professional sports are a diversion from working, parenting, marriage, paying bills, doing yard work, trying to fit in to today’s society, etc.
Hamlin’s cardiac arrest after tackling Tee Higgins has caused most, if not all sports fans to think about what matters on a daily basis. Do wins and losses matter? Do championship titles matter? Does being prepared for the worst situation on a playing field and acting on instinct to save a person’s life matter? The first two questions are up for debate on an acceptable answer. The third question is a no brainer…the Bills medical staff did exactly what they were supposed to do when they were supposed to do it, and they did it well.
Looking Forward to Week 18
This blogger could use phrases such as “the Bengals will rally after Week 17 to win the AFC North,” or the entire NFL will give pause and wait for the return “of Damar Hamlin back to the playing field” while flashing the number 3 to all television cameras on the sideline. I’m overjoyed that Hamlin is making a miraculous recovery and lifting his Bills coaches and teammates spirts as he fights like heck in the hospital. I’m appalled at the negative social comments made to Tee Higgins and Skip Bayless, about an event that has never happened before in the NFL.
ESPN did a top notch job covering the event with their Monday Night Football broadcasting crew, and then transitioning to Scott Van Pelt and Ryan Clark at the Sportscenter desk in Washington D.C. One thing that struck this blogger was how understated and quiet Van Pelt and Clark were in discussing what they had watched. This carried through their entire broadcast and they didn’t project or prognosticate what they thought happened. Both guys stated what they saw, what they felt, and what they hoped would happen with Hamlin.
Due to how well that approach was received, this blogger will keep his projections and rationale this week very simple and to the point. No funny anecdotes, no time to try and be the smartest person in the room. Stick to the facts and statistics and go from there. Be thankful that Hamlin is talking and breathing on his own. Pro football is entertainment, but this event will hopefully change a fan’s perspective on what professional athletes do on a daily basis and how lucky we are to watch.
Game Analysis
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EDT) from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio on 1/8/23. Ravens are 10-6 on the season and currently locked into the #6 AFC playoff slot. Could potentially move up one slot to #5 with a victory, but not likely. Bengals are 11-4 and could cause havoc with the #1 AFC playoff slot, if both Kansas City and Buffalo stumble this week. Even though that scenario is a slight possibility, Cincinnati needs to focus on the upcoming coin toss, since both of these teams will probably have a rematch in the Wild Card round.
Prediction: Cincinnati is a strong 9.0 point home favorite and they find a way to win by 6+ points. Then get ready for a rematch in the Wild Card round.
4. Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh
3. Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle
2. Tennessee vs. Jacksonville
1. Kansas City vs. Las Vegas
Pro Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta
Buccaneers are 8-8 and have already clinched the NFC South Division title. Comfortably sitting in the #4 NFC playoffs slot and won’t move up or down this week, no matter the outcome of this game. Several starters will rest on defense, but QB Tom Brady and his receiving corps need to get in another week of work and play reps to gel just in time for the Wildcard Round. Why does that sound like a headline all NFL fans have read or heard over the past twenty-three seasons?
Falcons are playing out the string at 6-10 and have lost four of their last five games. Rookie QB Desmond Rider gets his fourth start running the offense (484 passing yards, 0 TDs). Maybe he should travel light heading into 2023, due to his next stop being the XFL. Despite being 4.0 point road underdogs, Tampa Bay hangs around heading into the fourth quarter.
4. Detroit vs. Green Bay
Huge NFC Central matchup with the winner most likely heading to the NFC playoffs, pending what happens with Seattle’s game outcome. Lions are one of the feel good stories of the 2022 season, being 8-8 and on the doorstop to the playoffs. Keep daydreaming that the Broncos find a way to lure head coach Dan Campbell to the Mile High City, but that isn’t happening. Much to the delight of the NFL television ratings, the Packers are also 8-8 and a win away from the NFC playoffs. QB Aaron Rodgers always gets the talking heads’ accolades late in the season, but the statisticians are forgetting one key fact. Rodgers hasn’t won a playoff game in the month of January since the 2020 season and this is a de facto playoff game. Bet the ranch on the Lions despite being 5.0 point road underdogs.
3. New York Jets vs. Miami
Jets are 7-9 and have been eliminated from the AFC playoffs. Dolphins are 8-8 and hanging by a thread, to claim the #7 seed in the AFC bracket. Rematch of the Week 5 game won by New York (40-17). Miami is still mired in a bad five game losing streak and will start rookie QB Skylar Thompson due to injuries. Jets are almost done with their QB carousel and will go with veteran Joe Flacco. No matter how many words this blogger types, this matchup can’t be dressed up to look any better than it actually is. Dolphins are 3.0 point home favorites, but the Jets find a way to get a win to salvage their locker room outlook heading into 2023.
2. Carolina vs. New Orleans
Panthers have somewhat rebounded from a horrible start to this season (1-5), to get to 6-10 (playing 0.500 ball over the last ten weeks). QB Sam Darnold (1100 passing yards, 7 TDs) is trending up over the last five games, and might be salvageable with the right coaching staff. Saints are 7-9 and riding an impressive three game winning streak over Philadelphia, Cleveland and Atlanta. QB Andy Dalton has been serviceable (2700 passing yards, 17 TDs), but New Orleans really misses a productive Alvin Kamara (790 rushing yards, 2 TDs). RBs have a tendency to age overnight like a heavyweight boxer, and Kamara’s statistics closely fit that trend. Not a good sign. Saints are a well deserved 3.5 point home favorite, but the Panthers will play hard for 45-60 minutes to make things interesting in The Big Easy.
1. Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver
This matchup could easily be the lock of the week, but the betting line is entirely wrong with the Broncos being a 3.0 point home favorite, which makes absolutely no sense. Chargers are on a serious four game winning streak to be at 10-6, and are peaking at the perfect time. Free agent head coach Sean Payton would love the opportunity to coach QB Justin Herbert. Second year head coach Brandon Staley isn’t going anywhere, except to the AFC playoffs as the #5 seed.
Inept coaching staff and the cliff diving regression of QB Russell Wilson has caused 2022 to be a forgotten season in the Mile High City. Payton makes a lot of sense to turn the Broncos franchise around the field, but his price tag will be too high due to compensatory draft picks. Chargers win this road game by barely breaking a sweat and no one wants to meet them in the playoffs.
Storylines Heading into Wildcard Round of the NFL Playoffs
- Who is leading the NFL MVP race after Week 18? Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes?
- Which coaches are on the hot seat after Week 18?
- Crank up the hype machine for the wildcard round games starting the 2023 NFL playoffs
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of Pro Football Top 5 Week 18 and try again in the Wildcard Round of the NFL playoffs.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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