This article covers predicted Pro Football top 5 games to watch and top 5 upsets. Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime Video is right around the corner on 9/15/22 and that means pro football is starting. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl 55 at their home field (Raymond James Stadium) to close out the 2020 NFL season. Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl 56 at their home field (SoFi Stadium) to close out the 2021 NFL season. Since trends usually happen in threes, will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona? Time will tell after eighteen weeks of the regular season.
2022 Week 1 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 correct thanks to Buffalo, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Baltimore
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 4/5 correct thanks to Miami, Cleveland, New York Giants and Minnesota
Overall picks – 8/10 correct which is two standard deviations above the mean
Pro Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City
Primetime kickoff (8:15 PM EST) from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri on 9/15/22. Amazon Prime Video gets to roll out their top notch announcing crew of Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit, to make Thursday Night Football a must watch event. OId fashioned AFC West battle between two teams that can score at will. OB Patrick Mahomes had a quiet day of 360 passing yards and five TDs. TE Travis Kelce caught two of those TDS, but more importantly the Chiefs had nine different receivers catch at least one pass. That is an offense moving on from the departed all worldly WR Tyreek Hill.
Chargers beat Las Vegas 24-19 in Week 1. That game can be summarized as a decent team defensive effort, despite Raiders WR Davante Adams catching 10 passes for 141 yards and 1 TD. Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert had an efficient game, with 279 passing yards and 3 TDs. Nine different players caught at least two passes each. Achilles heel for the Chargers this season is their running game, or lack thereof. Only ran for 76 yards in Week 1 and that won’t cut it in a very deep AFC. Chiefs lead this series 65-58-1. Last meeting was a memorable Chiefs OT win (34-28) in Week 15 of the 2021 season. This game will feature a ton of offense by both teams.
Prediction: Kansas City is comfortable playing at home and experienced in a big stage environment. Chiefs cover the -4.0 point spread and win by 7 points.
4. Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana on 9/18/22. Buccaneers not only knocked QB Dak Prescott out during their Week 1 game against Dallas, they seemed to squeeze the life out of the Cowboys too. QB Tom Brady had a pedestrian 212 passing yards and 1 TD. RB Leonard Fournette ran wild for 127 rushing yards and was motivated. Brady looked drained and emaciated during his post-game interview on NBC. The entire world now knows he’s having marriage issues and he looked worn out at the end of Week 1. For those fans and fantasy football geeks waiting for Brady to age overnight, this might be the season.
Saints nipped the Falcons in Week 1 (27-26), and they might be a dark horse playoff team during 2022. The return of starting QB Jameis Winston has clicked immediately with new WR Jarvis Landry (7 catches, 114 receiving yards). Can new head coach Dennis Allen coax RB Alvin Kamara and WR Micheal Thomas to be key team players again? If Allen can do that, the Saints could have a special season. New Orleans leads this series 39-21 and have won four out of five games since 2020. Saints seem to have the Buccaneers number, especially at the Superdome.
Prediction: Game will have some key turnovers and momentum swings as both offenses try to establish the running game. New Orleans wins a back and forth game by 4 points.
3. New England vs. Pittsburgh
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on 9/18/22. Now things are getting interesting in Week #2. Patriots QB Mac Jones seems to have healed from a back injury sustained in Week 1 against the Dolphins. If Jones can’t start, Brian Hoyer will get the starting nod and he’ll have to wake up a slumbering offensive unit. 291 yards of total offense won’t win most weeks in the NFL, even in the weak AFC East. Head coach Bill Belichick has his work cut out for him, to get this squad ready for a physical road matchup. This scenario is when New England historically responds with a big win and gets on a roll.
Steelers beat the Bengals in OT in Week 1 (23-20), and lost star DE T.J. Watt for six weeks due to a torn pectoral. That hole on defense will be extremely hard to fill. Offensive unit needs to find a way to open some holes for RB Najee Harris and pick a real starting QB. Just a matter of time until head coach Mike Tomlin sits Mitch Trubisky, and lets rookie Kenny Pickett run the offense. Last time that scenario happened was in Week 2 of the 2004 season. Ben Roethlisberger took over for and injured Tommy Maddox and the rest is Steelers history. Historical series is currently tied 17-17, and the teams haven’t played each other since 2019.
Prediction: Patriots are a quiet 2.0 point road favorite. Steelers run the ball a ton and try to control the clock, which results in a winning walk-off field goal.
2. Cincinnati vs. Dallas
Late afternoon kickoff (4:25 PM EST) from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on 9/18/22. Bengals lost to Pittsburgh in OT (23-20) and the Cowboys were dominated by the Buccaneers (19-3) in Week 1. Both teams seem to be on completely different paths heading into this matchup. Cincinnati had an off day due to two fumbles and four interceptions, but they still racked up 451 yards of total offense. The trio of Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon and Ja’Marr Chase will be just fine, if they take care of the football. Rising head coach Zac Taylor would easily turn around the Nebraska Cornhuskers program in three years or less, but he’s not going anywhere for at least five years.
Dallas headed into the 2022 season with high hopes and even higher expectations, but now they will roll out Cooper Rush at QB and the team’s mood is low. CeeDee Lamb still isn’t a true #1 WR due to not scoring TDs, Ezekiel Elliott and the running game is not consistent, and head coach Mike McCarthy is already planning his next retirement. If the Cowboys come out flat in this game, expect owner Jerry Jones to shake some things up instead of waiting for the fan base to complain. As I seem to type each week…….avoid, avoid, avoid.
Prediction: Bengals easily cover the 7.0 road favorite line and win by 10 points
1. Houston vs. Denver
Lock of the week is a late afternoon kickoff (4:25 PM EST) on 9/18/22, from Enpower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. Texans are coming off a rare tie with Indianapolis (20-20), that saw them gain 317 total yards of offense. David Mills is the new QB for Houston and his only supporting cast seems to be WR Brandin Cooks. If 2021 was a season to forget for the Texans franchise due to the drama that was created by their star QB, then 2022 might truly be a nightmare for new head coach Lovie Smith.
New head coach Nathanial Hackett made a mess of the Broncos last offensive drive during their 17-16 loss to Seattle in Week 1. Taking the ball out of your franchise’s QB (Russell Wilson) hands on fourth down and five, to rely on a 64 yard field attempt defies explanation. Not to mention horrible clock management, too many penalties and a lack of play calling cohesion until late in the first half. For this matchup, Broncos Nation will be happy with a workmanlike victory that will be easier than expected. Hopefully that helps wash away the bad memories left behind in Seattle.
Prediction: Denver is currently a 10.0 point home favorite and will win by 14+ points
Pro Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Arizona vs. Las Vegas
Cardinals learned a valuable lesson in Week 1, that a team has to be ready to play from the opening snap or the game gets away quickly. Scoring machine RB James Connor had one TD and a solid game, but Arizona needs to figure out their rushing attack quickly. QB Kyler Murray’s stats were padded due to playing from behind, but his off the field study habits need to improve too. Raiders offense seems to revolve around QB Derek Carr and WR Davante Adams only. No running game at all and limited throws to newly signed TE Darren Waller, showed that Las Vegas needs to work on sharing the football across the entire offensive squad. Cardinals are currently a 5.5 point road underdog and their running back depth will be problematic for the Raiders.
4. Tennessee vs. Buffalo
Titans gagged against the New York Giants in Week 1, losing 21-20 at home. QB Ryan Tannehill and stud RB Derrick Henry were solid in that game, but no one wanted to become “the guy” for catching critical passes. If that trend continues in September, the Titans will be in too big of a hole to climb out of. Bills looked like a Super Bowl team in beating the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1 (31-10) on the road, and they have a loaded roster from top to bottom. This feels like a trap game due to the Bills having not played in eleven days, and Tennessee won the last time they played in Week 6 of the 2021 season (34-31). Bills are 10.0 point home favorites, but the Titans will keep this game close for sixty minutes. Never bet against the franchise that successfully completed the Music City Miracle.
3. Minnesota vs. Philadelphia
Vikings were impressive in Week 1 by beating Green Bay 23-7. A little bit of football karma and/or the football gods might give Minnesota some winning bounces or defensive stops in 2022, due to how bumpy 2021 was. QB Kirk Cousins and RB Dalvin Cook played well, but third year WR Justin Jefferson has reached another tier (9 catches, 184 receiving yards, 2 TDs). Jefferson wants to catch up to his college teammate Ja’Marr Chase. Eagles beat the Lions in a score fest in Week 1 (38-35). QB Jalen Hurts played well and fourth year RB Miles Sanders continues to significantly improve each week. Can the Eagles cover being a 2.0 point home favorite on Monday Night Football? Don’t count on it as the entire country witnesses the Justin Jefferson show.
2. Miami vs. Baltimore
Dolphins beat New England in Week 1 (20-7), behind the T&T show, of Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill. Tua threw for 270 passing yards and 1 TD. Hill was targeted twelve times, catching eight passes for 94 yards. That stat line will continue to exponentially grow as the 2022 season unfolds. Ravens opened with an easy win over the New York Jets (23-9). Now they get to show if they can continue a winning streak or be inconsistent from week to week. The lack of a contract extension for Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson doesn’t seem to be an issue with his on-field performance, but the talking heads and experts will try to make it an issue. I’m all in on the Dolphins this week despite them being a 3.5 point road underdog.
1. New York Jets vs. Cleveland
Jets were beaten soundly by Baltimore in Week 1 (23-9). Browns nipped Carolina on the final play to win (26-24). New York Jets were the laughing stock of the entire NFL in 2021. They should find some luckier bounces and better scoring chances in 2022. QB Joe Flacco turned back the clock by throwing for 307 passing yards and 1 TD in Week 1. He’ll continue to throw the football all around the field, until Zach Wilson can come back from his knee surgery.
Nick Chubb ran for a tough 141 yards in Week 1 and QB Jacoby Brissett did just enough to keep the Browns in the game. This game will be sloppy, turnover prone and lacking in efficient execution, but I like Flacco as a passing pocket gun slinger. Cleveland is currently a 6.5 point home favorite, but the Jets will hang around into the fourth quarter to makes things interesting.
Storylines Heading into Week 3
- How does Amazon Prime Video’s debut covering NFL games go with television critics?
- Is the Kansas City Chiefs offense better without Tyreek Hill?
- Is Mike McCarthy already on the hot seat in Dallas?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of Pro Football Top 5 Week 2 and try again in Week 3.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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