This article covers predicted Pro Football top 5 games to watch and top 5 upsets. Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime Video is right around the corner on 9/22/22 and that means pro football is starting. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl 55 at their home field (Raymond James Stadium) to close out the 2020 NFL season. Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl 56 at their home field (SoFi Stadium) to close out the 2021 NFL season. Since trends usually happen in threes, will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona? Time will tell after eighteen weeks of the regular season.
2022 Week 2 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 2/5 correct thanks to Kansas City and Denver
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 3/5 correct thanks to Arizona, Miami and New York Jets
Overall picks – 5/10 correct which is right at the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 6/10 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 7/10 correct
Overall picks – 13/20 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Pro Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Buffalo vs. Miami
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida on 9/25/22. AFC East is alive and well early in the 2022 NFL season, due to the high scoring Bills and the resilient Dolphins. Buffalo is 2-0 due to throttling the Los Angeles Rams and Tennessee Titans. Currently averaging 413.5 yards of total offense and scoring 36.0 points per game. Bills are the second stingiest defense to score on, due to only giving up 8.5 points per game. QB Josh Allen is off to a solid start throwing the ball and the Bills haven’t asked him to run much yet, which is when they are almost impossible to stop. This roster is built for the long run but also to win now in 2022.
Miami is also 2-0 due to suffocating New England and having a fourth quarter comeback for the ages against Baltimore. Were a trendy dark horse playoff pick heading into this season with a new and innovative head coach, Mike McDaniel, calling the offensive plays. Starting QB Tua Tagovailoa is finally healthy in his third pro season and he adores throwing to stud WR Tyreek Hill. Dolphins are very deep on the offensive side of the ball and their defensive unit is playing with a chip on their shoulder. Feels like the early 1990s all over again in the AFC East.
Prediction: Buffalo is a quiet 6.0 point road favorite and they find a new defensive gear in this game to win by 13 points.
4. Baltimore vs. New England
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts on 9/25/22. Ravens are still wondering what happened in Week 2, by giving up 28 points in the fourth quarter to Miami and losing 42-38. QB Lamar Jackson seems to be doing everything on the offensive side, due to leading Baltimore in passing yards and rushing yards. Need to find a logical depth chart at RB, or Jackson will continue to take a weekly physical beating from opposing defenses. Currently averaging 373.5 yards of offense and scoring 31.0 points per game. Defensive unit has been porous in allowing 25.5 point per game.
Patriots rebounded from a bad performance in Week 1, to nip Pittsburgh on the road in Week 2 (17-14). Second year QB Mac Jones hasn’t quite found his footing yet, with 465 passing yards and two passing TDs. More importantly, when Jones makes a mistake it doesn’t negatively impact field position or points off turnovers. RB Damien Harris had a big breakout season in 2021 with 15 TDs, and he’s definitely ready to be the guy carrying the football when first downs are needed. New England’s defense is underrated in giving up a stingy 17.0 points per game.
Prediction: Game won’t have many style points and turnovers will be key to help flip field position. New England finds a way to win this game by 6 points to stay in the AFC East conversation.
3. Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona
Late afternoon kickoff (4:25 PM EST) from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona on 9/25/22. Now things are getting interesting in Week #3. Rams were overmatched in Week 1 against Buffalo and seemed to rebound well against Atlanta in Week 2. Until the last twelve minutes of the fourth quarter, giving up 17 points and looking sloppy on both sides of the ball. QB Matthew Stafford has been erratic due to throwing 4 TDs and 5 interceptions. No running back depth has materialized yet, making the Los Angeles Rams a one dimensional team on offense. Thankfully their defensive unit can carry the load most weeks, but balance is needed sooner or later to keep up in the NFC West.
Cardinals had a memorable overtime victory at Las Vegas in Week 2 (29-23). Rallied from trailing 23-7 at the beginning of the fourth quarter, to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. QB Kyler Murray has shown glimpses of sublime plays, but he still locks onto receivers when pressured by the defensive line. WR AJ Green has seemed to turn the clock back ten years to his earlier playing days. When will Arizona just give the damn ball to James Connor and let him run? He’s a team player and a hard nosed RB, ride him to move the chains.
Prediction: Rams are 3.5 point road favorites and they barely cover the spread winning by 4 points
2. Green Bay vs. Tampa Bay
Late afternoon kickoff (4:25 PM EST) from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida on 9/25/22. Battle of the Bays resumes for the first time since the 2020 NFC Championship Game, won by the Buccaneers (31-26). Yes QB Aaron Rogers still owns the Chicago Bears after winning that match up in Week 2, but he’s got to find a way to distribute his passes to WRs that actually score TDs. Running game is solid with the tandem of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion. Packers defense is currently allowing 311.5 yards and 16.5 points per game. They’ll have to play at a high level to slow down Tom Brady and company.
Tampa Bay is 2-0 heading into this matchup, but the big news is the one game suspension of WR Mike Evans. Evans had an altercation with New Orleans Saints DB Marshon Lattimore in Week 2 and was kicked out of that game. QB Tom Brady will simply turn to Julio Jones to fill that receiving hole this week. RB Leonard Fournette will get a ton of carries to soften up the Packers defensive line. This will be the game that new head coach Todd Bowles will out coach the Packers Matt LaFleur, and the NFC will turn into a guessing game for the remainder of 2022.
Prediction: Buccaneers control the line of scrimmage and the clock in the fourth quarter to win by 3 points
1. Kansas City vs. Indianapolis
Lock of the week is an early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) on 9/25/22, from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. Chiefs are clicking at 2-0 with victories over Arizona and the Los Angeles Chargers. Seems like the fun is back on the Kansas City sideline, due to sidearm throws being completed by QB Patrick Mahomes (595 passing yards, 7 TDs, 0 interceptions). RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire is running with authority, but can he be the main back due to his smaller size (5′-7″, 207 pounds)? Time will tell, but offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has called two solid games and he loves battling in the tough AFC.
Colts seem to be permanently scarred by their Week 18 loss to Jacksonville (26-11) in 2021, to close out the season and miss the playoffs. QB Matt Ryan was obtained via trade during the 2022 offseason, and he’s responded with 547 passing yards, 1 TD pass and 4 interceptions. All world RB Jonathan Taylor has done his job rushing for 215 yards and 1 TD, but something is missing with this team. They might be snake bit playing against Jacksonville, or simply waiting in the weeds in the incredibly weak AFC South.
Prediction: Kansas City is currently a 5.5 road favorite and will win by 10+ points
Pro Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland
Steelers lead the Turnpike Rivalry 79-61-1 and have won the last two meetings due to sweeping the AFC North series in 2021. When will head coach Mike Tomlin take the saddle off rookie QB Kenny Pickett? Current starting QB Mitch Trubisky is a game manager at best, and he’s looked very pedestrian in Weeks 1 and 2. Pittsburgh needs to take advantage of the top tier play of FS Minkah Fitzpatrick and start winning close games. Browns are reeling after blowing a 13 point lead in the final two minutes in Week 2 against the New York Jets, losing 31-30. QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Nick Chubb and WR Amari Cooper have all done their part to improve Cleveland’s offense. Defensive unit is currently being torched for 27.5 points per game. Steelers hang around in this game for 60 minutes despite being a 4.0 point road underdog.
4. Las Vegas vs. Tennessee
Raiders gagged up a sure victory against Arizona in Week 2, due to allowing a rushing TD on the final play of regulation time. Followed by a fumble and defensive TD return early in OT. New head coach Josh McDaniels already has a deer-in-the headlights look when he paces the sidelines during momentum shifts. Raiders fans may have forgotten that McDaniels single handily wrecked the Denver Broncos franchise in 2010 and it took four years to fix the roster. Titans were smoked by Buffalo in Week 2 (41-7), and they are simply too good of a team to start the season 0-3. Stud RB Derrick Henry will be given a huge workload in this matchup and his stats line will please fantasy football owners. Las Vegas is a 2.0 point road favorite, but the Titans will play inspired football at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee.
3. San Francisco vs. Denver
When things change, its amazing how fast they return to being the same. 49ers drafted and groomed QB Trey Lance during the 2021 season, to replace starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo. After finding no NFL trade partners, San Francisco resigned Jimmy G to a salary cap friendly $6.5M contract for the 2022 season, with significant performance bonuses. Lance was lost for the rest of the season after breaking his ankle in Week 2 against Seattle. Garoppolo is now the guy running a finely tuned NFC West offense. It pays to have an insurance policy no matter what line of work you are in.
Broncos fan base is currently very tense, due to how many penalties have been taken in two games (25 total for 206 yards). Not to mention head coach Nathaniel Hackett taking way too much time, deciding and calling offensive plays from the sideline. If Denver breaks the huddle with ten seconds or less remaining on the play clock again, this life long fan will turn the television off. Broncos defense continues to keep a low profile by only allowing 243.5 yards and 13.0 points per game. Its time for Russell Wilson and the offensive unit to help out in this game, despite being a 1.5 point home underdog.
2. Dallas vs. New York Giants
Old fashioned NFC East battle, with the Cowboys leading the series 71-47-2. Dallas swept the season series in 2021. Backup QB Cooper Rush led the offense out of the doldrums on a 33 yard scoring drive, culminating with a 50 yard walk off field goal against Cincinnati in Week 2. Rush now gets to continue to hone his craft on the road at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Safety valve WR CeeDee Lamb may finally earn his stripes by carrying this offense and Rush to a potential road victory.
Giants are quietly sitting at 2-0 due to close wins over Tennessee and Carolina. QB Daniel Jones and RB Saquon Barkley are off to solid starts, but new head coach Brian Daboll is getting all the media attention due to his bold play calling. Expect a close game for three quarters and then the Cowboys win a tight contest despite being a 1.0 point road underdog.
1. Atlanta vs. Seattle
Dirty Birds playing at the Three Hawks. Atlanta is 0-2 despite playing to the final buzzer against New Orleans and the Los Angeles Rams. Lost both games by a combined five points. New QB Marcus Mariota, RB Cordarrelle Paterson and WR Drake London are definitely moving the chains and picking up big chunks of yards. Atlanta’s defense is getting gashed for 361.0 yards and 29.0 points per game. The Geno Smith honeymoon officially ended after Week 1 in the Pacific Northwest and reality is now setting in. Seahawks are in rebuild mode for the next 3-4 years, but at least its fresh hop beer season the rest of the month in Seattle. Even betting line right now, but the Falcons should be able to steal a road win.
Storylines Heading into Week 4
- Can any team slow down the Buffalo Bills?
- Are the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants for real?
- Is Josh McDaniels already on the hot seat in Las Vegas?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of Pro Football Top 5 Week 3 and try again in Week 4.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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