This article covers predicted Pro Football top 5 games to watch and top 5 upsets. Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime Video is right around the corner on 10/6/22 and that means pro football is starting. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl 55 at their home field (Raymond James Stadium) to close out the 2020 NFL season. Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl 56 at their home field (SoFi Stadium) to close out the 2021 NFL season. Since trends usually happen in threes, will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona? Time will tell after eighteen weeks of the regular season.
2022 Week 4 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 5/5 correct thanks to Dallas, Buffalo, Green Bay, Kansas City and Arizona
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 1/5 correct thanks to Tennessee
Overall picks – 6/10 correct which one standard deviation above the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 12/20 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 12/20 correct
Overall picks – 24/40 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Pro Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Pittsburgh vs. Buffalo
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York on 10/9/22. Steelers are mired in a three game losing streak. Head coach Mike Tomlin finally made the official change at starting QB earlier this week. Rookie Kenny Pickett gets the call, after a lackluster month by Mitch Trubisky. Pickett came off the bench in Week 4 after halftime and sparked the Pittsburgh offense with two rushing TDs. He’ll need to be a quick learner, to wake up an offense that is only averaging 278.8 yards and 18.5 points per game.
Bills were sleep walking on the road in Baltimore in Week 4. Took the first half off due to playing in a steady rainstorm and then decided to get serious in the third quarter. Offense was efficient in the second half picking up timely first downs. Defense allowed QB Lamar Jackson a ton of underneath completions and some rushing yards. Biggest factor for the road win, was Ravens head coach John Harbaugh trusting analytics instead of his gut in the red zone. The rest of the NFL knows not to give Buffalo extra possessions, due to how clinical QB Josh Allen can be when the game is on the line.
Prediction: Buffalo is a 14.0 point home favorite and they grind out a 10 point win
4. New York Giants vs. Green Bay
Late morning kickoff (9:30 AM EST) from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England on 10/9/22. I’m not a Giants fan, but the classic/color rush uniforms and helmets they are wearing this season do bring back memories of the 1986 and 1990 Super Bowl winning squads. 1980s and 1990s were when defenses still won championships. New York was creative in Week 4, after losing starting QB Daniel Jones (ankle) and backup QB Tyrod Taylor (concussion) to injuries. RB Saquon Barkley ran the wildcat offense during the last seven minutes of regulation. If Barkley has to be a QB/RB hybrid for sixty minutes against the Packers, Week 5 will be a long day for Giants fans.
Green Bay is on a nice three game winning steak, thanks to a 27-24 OT victory over New England in Week 4. QB Aaron Rodgers has only thrown 6 TDs, but the offense has great balance due to averaging 145.0 yards rushing per game, and five players have 100+ receiving yards. Usually those statistics would translate into more than 18.5 points scored per game. Relax Packer fans, this winning streak will continue for the next three weeks.
Prediction: Green Bay is an 8.0 point favorite for the second NFL International Series game of 2022 and wins easily by 13+ points
3. Dallas vs. Los Angeles Rams
Late afternoon kickoff (4:25 PM EST) from SoFi Stadium in Englewood, California on 10/9/22. Cowboys are clicking with a three game winning streak, playing with backup QB Cooper Rush. Rush hasn’t thrown any interceptions or had any rushing fumbles, so he’s being a solid game manager until starting QB Dak Prescott returns from injury. Despite being statistically heavy with two RBs (Ezekiel Elliot, Tony Pollard) and two WRs (CeeDee Lamb, Noah Brown), Dallas is taking care of the football and moving the chains. That’s a good formula for success in the NFC East.
Rams were physically dominated by San Francisco in Week 4 (24-9). Troy Aikman and Joe Buck both pointed out during the post game exit interview, that Los Angeles is now a one dimensional team without a running game. Defenses will continue to double team WR Cooper Kupp and dare QB Matthew Stafford to throw into that coverage. Despite having an elite defensive unit, that is currently giving up 341.5 yards and 23.5 points per game, the Rams are going to have to adapt their offense on the fly or commit to the run more. 294.0 yards and 17.5 points per game on offense won’t cut it when trying to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams are currently a 5.5 point home favorite and find a way to win by 6 points
2. Las Vegas vs. Kansas City
Primetime evening kickoff (8:15 PM EST) from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri on 10/10/22. Raiders won their first game of the season in Week 4 against Denver (32-23). QB Derek Carr and WR Davante Adams were on the same page in that game. RB Josh Jacobs was a monster rushing for 144 yards and 2 TDs. Underrated defense is still giving up too many yards (357.0) and points (25.0) per game, to keep up in the deep AFC West. Need to somehow get DL pressure on Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes, or this game will get out of hand quickly.
Chiefs rebounded from a bad loss in Week 3 to Indianapolis, with a resounding road win over Tampa Bay in Week 4 (41-31). Mahomes made a highlight reel TD toss/pitch/flip to RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, that is still playing on ESPN SportsCenter. WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marques Valdes-Scantling are doing a serviceable job replacing WR Tyreek Hill, with a combined 392 receiving yards and 5 TDs. Plus they are opening up the secondary for TE Travis Kelce, to continue being the #1 receiving option.
Prediction: Chiefs are a modest 7.0 point home favorite and they win by 10 points
1. San Francisco vs. Carolina
Lock of the week is a late afternoon kickoff (4:05 PM EST) on 10/9/22, from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. 49ers looked like a playoff ready team in Week 4, due to physically dominating the Rams (24-9). Deebo Samuel continues to make plays as a WR and temporary slot RB. That guy needs to get the ball more due to simply being a great player. Safety Talanoa Hufanga is starting to look like a clone of Troy Polamalu, due to his hair and playing style. San Francisco is ready to stay in the fight for the NFC West all season long.
Don’t have enough confidence in Jacksonville to beat the lowly Texans, so I’m backsliding to the lowly Panthers losing at home. I hope that strategy doesn’t backfire. Carolina is ranked last in the NFL, averaging 262.3 yards of offense per game and scoring 19.5 points. Defensive unit is serviceable at 346.0 yards and 21.3 points allowed per game. Offense needs to score some points to take stress off the defense and RB Christian McCaffrey needs to stay optimistic.
Prediction: San Francisco is currently a 6.5 point road favorite and will take care of business due to winning by 14 points
Pro Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Indianapolis vs. Denver
Colts have played three close games, with what could be termed a football hat trick (one win, one loss, one tie). QB Matt Ryan has been maddingly inconsistent. RB Jonathan Taylor has been good but not great. WR Michael Pittman Jr. is having a breakout season, but his plays aren’t translating to team wins. Taylor won’t play this week due to a badly injured ankle. RBs Nyheim Hines and Phillip Lindsay will take turns softening up the Broncos DLs and LBs. Denver showed some offensive firepower during the first half of their Week 5 game against Las Vegas. Unfortunately starting RB Javonte Williams blew his knee out during the first play of the second half. All of the air went out of the Broncos balloon with that injury. Now Denver has to get ready to play a physical team that runs the ball and typically doesn’t make mistakes. Colts will hang around for sixty minutes due to only being a 3.0 point road underdog.
4. Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland
Hard to get a feel for the Los Angeles Chargers offense this season after four games. QB Justin Herbert is still dealing with sore ribs from the Week 2 loss to Kansas City. WR Keenan Allen hasn’t played since Week 1 due to a lingering hamstring injury. Lack of a consistent running game hasn’t helped generate any offensive balance for the Chargers. Currently ranked first in NFL passing (307.8 yards per game) and last in rushing (64.5 yards per game). Browns are 2-2 despite losing two games by a combined total of four points. RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are chewing up significant chunks of yardage. WR Amari Cooper has shown flashes of his big play potential due to to having 228 receiving yards and 2 TDs. Defense needs to tighten up due to allowing 326.0 yards and 23.8 point per game. Chargers are 2.5 point road favorites, but the Browns will make their long trip even longer when they win this game in walk-off fashion.
3. Chicago vs. Minnesota
Vikings lead this “NFC Norris” rivalry 63-57-2. Minnesota won both games played during the 2021 season. Bears are in a win-lose-win-lose pattern, so they are trending towards a victory in Week 5. Second year QB Justin Fields is still playing catch-up from a bumpy rookie season and needs to limit throwing interceptions. Chicago is currently ranked third in the NFL with 177.3 rushing yards per game, but are last with 92.5 passing yards and only scoring 16.0 points per game. Vikings need to have their goalie go and tap the field goal posts with his stick, since the Saints double tapped the upright and crossbar to lose in London during Week 4. QB Kirk Cousins, RB Dalvin Cook, and WR Justin Jefferson can hang with any team in the NFL right now. Minnesota is a valid 7.5 point home favorite, but the Bears will keep it close for forty-five minutes.
2. Philadelphia vs. Arizona
Haven’t analyzed the Eagles yet this season as they head into Week 5 at 4-0, and the last undefeated team in the NFL. QB Jalen Hurts is having an MVP type year (1120 passing yards, 1 passing TD, 205 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs). RB Miles Sanders is averaging 89.0 rushing yards per game. WR A.J. Brown is averaging 101.0 receiving yards per game. Defense is stingy giving up 277.3 yards and 17.8 points per game. Cardinals are 0-2 at home this season, which means they are due to play hard for their fans. QB Kyler Murray plays better against top tier competition, which will come from the Eagles defense and the sports writers hyping Hurts. This game will be high scoring for four quarters, and weird things historically happen in State Farm Stadium when the game clock hits 00:00. Eagles are favored by 5.5 points, but they’ll have a steel cage wrestling match for sixty minutes in the desert.
1. Cincinnati vs. Baltimore
I’ll take QB Joe Burrow’s calm demeanor under pressure over John Harbaugh’s inability to kick a FG from inside the 2 yard line. I love analytics but they shouldn’t overrule gut reaction coaching decisions. Bengals are 3.0 point road underdogs and they’ll throw the ball all over the field to their trio of WRs (Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd), to get a huge AFC North victory.
Storylines Heading into Week 6
- Who is leading the NFL MVP race after Week 5? Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen ?
- Which coach is on the hot seat after Week 5?
- Crank up the hype machine for Chiefs vs. Bills
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of Pro Football Top 5 Week 5 and try again in Week 6.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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