This article covers predicted Pro Football top 5 games to watch and top 5 upsets. Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime Video is right around the corner on 10/13/22 and that means pro football is starting. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl 55 at their home field (Raymond James Stadium) to close out the 2020 NFL season. Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl 56 at their home field (SoFi Stadium) to close out the 2021 NFL season. Since trends usually happen in threes, will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona? Time will tell after eighteen weeks of the regular season.
2022 Week 5 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 3/5 correct thanks to Buffalo, San Francisco and Kansas City
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 1/5 correct thanks to Indianapolis
Overall picks – 4/10 correct which is one standard deviation below the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 15/25 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 13/25 correct
Overall picks – 28/50 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Pro Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Minnesota vs. Miami
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida on 10/16/22. Vikings have won three games in a row by a combined total of 14 points. Definitely reaping the benefits of the football gods, after losing too many close games in 2021. QB Kirk Cousins is having a quiet but effective season (1327 passing yards, 7 TDs). Stud WR Justin Jefferson is averaging 109.4 receiving yards per game. Just a matter of time until this duo starts scoring more touchdowns. Defense continues to use smoke and mirrors, but they are only giving up 20.4 points per game.
Dolphins were the feel good team of the early 2022 season, until QB Tua Tagovailoa was dinged in Week 3 and officially knocked out in Week 4. Have lost back-to-back games to Cincinnati and the New York Jets. Due to injuries, rookie QB Skylar Thompson will get the start this week. Will have to rely on RB Chase Edmonds, WR Tyreek Hill and WR Jaylen Waddle to stay competitive in this matchup. Home crowd will help for the first thirty minutes, but the second half will be tough to watch.
Prediction: Minnesota is a solid 3.5 point road favorite and they’ll win this game by 10 points
4. Baltimore vs. New York Giants
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on 10/16/22. Ravens shook off the red zone cobwebs from Week 4, by beating Cincinnati in Week 5 (19-17). QB Lamar Jackson only had to throw for 174 yards, 1 TD and rush for 58 yards, to lead his squad to victory. Running game continues to improve at 144.6 yards per game. Turnovers need to be minimized or the next month will be bumpy on the scoreboard.
Giants are somehow, someway sitting at 4-1 and the current talk of the NFL. Have two weak victories over Carolina and Chicago, and two impressive wins over Tennessee and Green Bay. QB Daniel Jones has finally found out that one-to-two timely quarterback keepers per game, and a healthy Shaquon Barkley (RB) makes life fun in the Big Apple. Offense is averaging a pedestrian 333.2 yards and 20.6 points per game. Defense is currently ranked twelfth in the NFL, allowing 326.0 yards and 18.6 points per game. Simple mathematical analysis shows that the Giants should be winning games by 2.0 points (20.6-18.6). Maybe that’s why they are 4-1.
Prediction: Baltimore is a stout 6.0 point road favorite and they’ll grind out a 7 point win
3. Dallas vs. Philadelphia
Primetime evening kickoff (8:20 PM EST) from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on 10/16/22. NBC gets a top notch NFC matchup between two old rivals. Dallas currently leads the series 72-54-0 and won both games during the 2021 season. Injured QB Dak Prescott is still working on treatment and practice drills for his injured thumb. Backup QB Cooper Rush will get the starting nod and try to extend a four game winning streak. Dallas’ defensive unit is banged up heading into Week 6. If all-world LB Micah Parsons can’t play, the Eagles big play offense will be licking their chops.
Philadelphia is the last undefeated team in the NFL at 5-0. Third year QB Jalen Hurts, continues to blossom into a talented NFL star (1359 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 266 rushing yards, 6 rushing TDs). RB Miles Sanders is averaging 82.8 rushing yards per game. WR A.J. Brown continues to thrive in the Eagles offense, with 28 receptions, 436 receiving yards and 1 TD. Currently has the second ranked NFL offense with 419.8 yards and 27.0 points per game. Defense is ranked fourth due to allowing 294.4 yards and 17.6 points per game. When someone brings balance to the force, winning games usually follows.
Prediction: Philadelphia is a solid 6.5 point home favorite and this will be an entertaining game for 60 minutes. Eagles win by 3 points via a walk off field goal.
2. Carolina vs. Los Angeles Rams
Second lock of the week is a late afternoon kickoff (4:05 PM EST) from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California on 10/16/22. I keep picking against the Panthers each week, due to their disjointed front office approach of changing QBs every season. Not to mention the surprise firing of head coach Matt Rhule on 10/10/22. Rhule never quite transitioned smoothly from college ball to the NFL. He’ll definitely get hired by a top tier Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) school for the 2023 season (please pay attention University of Colorado).
Rams looked and played as a one-dimensional team in Week 5 against Dallas. There’s only so many passes that QB Matthew Stafford can complete to WR Cooper Kupp, before the opposing defense shuts the rest of the field down. Non-existent running attack is only averaging an NFL worst 62.4 yards per game, and has no creativity or blocking schemes. For one week, the Los Angeles Rams will have their high flying aerial show pick apart the lowly Panthers. Reality will set in during Week 7 against San Francisco.
Prediction: Rams are a comfortable 10.0 point home favorite and they’ll cover the spread
1. Tampa Bay vs. Pittsburgh
First lock of the week is an early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) on 10/16/22, from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Buccaneers were cruising through three quarters in Week 5 against Atlanta, and then their defensive unit decided to stop tackling and covering WRs. If it wasn’t for a timely and dubious roughing the passer penalty during the final drive, Tampa Bay would be 2-3. The world now knows that QB Tom Brady is headed towards a divorce, and he looks drained at the end of each game. Should have stayed in retirement
Steelers were soundly beaten by Buffalo in Week 5 (38-3). Completely dominated in all three phases of the game. Head coach Mike Tomlin is starting to admit how bad his squad really is, with cryptic answers and motivational phrases used during press conferences. RB Najee Harris (44.4 rushing yards per game), was last seen on the side of a milk carton. WR corps just stands around, to watch rookie George Pickens make highlight reel catches. Then they head lifelessly back to the bench after not moving the chains. First season without QB Ben Roethlisberger is quickly turning into a nightmare.
Prediction: Tampa Bay is an 8 point road favorite and they cover winning by 10+ points
Pro Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. New England vs. Cleveland
Both teams are 2-3 heading into this matchup. Patriots have been adversely impacted by injuries at QB, RB and WR. This is usually when head coach Bill Belichick unveils a new set of offensive formations (Wildcat), or he tweaks the base defense personnel. Not sure if New England has the roster depth to play liar’s poker. Browns have lost three games by a combined six points. Nick Chubb is having a monster statistical season, due to averaging 118.6 rushing yards per game and scoring 7 TDs. Offense is averaging 26.6 points scored per game and the defense is allowing 25.0. No wonder Cleveland is playing in close games and unable to finish the deal most weeks. Browns are currently a shaky 2.5 point home favorite, but the Patriots will hang around late in the fourth quarter.
4. Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis
Haven’t analyzed the Jaguars yet during the 2022 season. Still have a bad taste in my mouth, when they beat the Colts in Week 18 and knocked them out of the 2021 playoffs. QB Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 1232 passing yards and 8 TDs. Needs to minimize turnovers and move out of the pocket quicker, to avoid drive ending sacks. RB duo of James Robinson and Travis Etienne Jr. look like the real deal if they stay healthy. Christian Kirk is leading the WR corps that is currently four players deep. Smart hire with new head coach Doug Pederson, after the short and tension filled Urban Meyer days.
Colts are still sky high after beating Denver on the road in Week 4 (12-9 in OT). That was one of the ugliest and boring NFL games in a long time. QB Matt Ryan got hot late in the fourth quarter and didn’t make any mistakes in OT. Eleven year veteran CB Stephon Gilmore played a solid game and kept the Indianapolis secondary plugged in. If/when all world RB Jonathan Taylor returns from injury, then Indianapolis will be a tough opponent for all NFL teams. Until Taylor is 100% healthy, the Colts are a coin toss on a weekly basis. Jacksonville is a 2.0 point road underdog, but they are officially a mental and physical roadblock that the Colts will have to beat to break the hex. Jaguars will be in this game until the final buzzer.
3. Cincinnati vs. New Orleans
Bengals QB Joe Burrow gets to revisit the Caesars Superdome, for the first time since winning the 2020 National Championship game with LSU. Burrow had arguably the greatest single offensive season in college football history in 2019 (5671 passing yards, 60 passing TDs, 368 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs). Burrow has quickly excelled at the NFL level and was very close to winning Super Bowl 56. Cincinnati is a good football team, but something seems to be missing in 2022. Can’t put my finger on it, but they aren’t playing with any polish to finish out games. Hard to flip the on/off switch in the deep AFC. Saints beat Seattle (39-32) in Week 5, to end a three game losing streak. QB Jameis Winston and WR Jarvis Landry are both questionable to play in this game. Only a matter of time, until New Orleans plays hard for new head coach Dennis Allen. Bengals are a quiet 1.5 point road favorite, but the home crowd will carry the Saints into the fourth quarter.
2. Buffalo vs. Kansas City
Technically the game of the week, but I need to make sure there’s five upset games to actually pick. Bills and Chiefs played one of the best NFL playoff games in history, on 1/23/22 in the Divisional round. Kansas City won 34-26 in OT at home, to advance to the AFC Championship Game. Buffalo QB Josh Allen threw for 389 yards and 4 TDs. WR Gabe Davis had the game of his life, with 8 receptions, 201 receiving yards and 4 TD catches. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes threw for 378 passing yards and 3 TDs. WR Tyreek Hill went off with 11 catches, 150 yards and 1 TD. Both teams combined for 28 points in the fourth quarter. Kansas City won the coin toss in OT and never looked back, with a long TD drive that TE Travis Kelsey finished.
Almost impossible to follow that game up with an encore. Both teams are 4-1 and at the head of the class in the AFC. Bills are somehow a 2.5 point road favorite heading into Arrowhead Stadium. Mahomes continues to put the Chiefs on his back and refuses to lose on home turf. This game will be good, but not epic. Kansas City finds a way to squeak out a win and become an early Super Bowl favorite yet again.
1. Washington vs. Chicago
Don’t have the stones to pick Denver over the Los Angeles Chargers on the road. Don’t have the intestinal fortitude to take the Seahawks at home playing Arizona. I’ll backslide into the Thursday Night Game on Amazon Prime Video. Kirk Herbstreit and Al Michaels were analytical and vocal about the bad display of football in Week 5, between the Colts and Broncos. Wait until they get to sit through 60 minutes of this lackluster matchup. Commanders are 1-4 and they can’t return QB Carson Wentz to sender, since he likes throwing to the opposing secondary more than his own wide receivers (Phillip Rivers syndrome). Bears are in yet another rebuild mode and like to play games that have scores in the 20s. Bears have won two games at home and are currently 1.0 point underdogs. Take the home team and try to remember the best defense of all time during the 1985 season.
Storylines Heading into Week 7
- Who is leading the NFL MVP race after Week 7? Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts?
- Which coach is on the hot seat after Week 7?
- Crank up the hype machine for Chiefs vs. 49ers
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of Pro Football Top 5 Week 6 and try again in Week 7.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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