This article covers predicted Pro Football top 5 games to watch and top 5 upsets. Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime Video is right around the corner on 10/27/22 and that means pro football is starting. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl 55 at their home field (Raymond James Stadium) to close out the 2020 NFL season. Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl 56 at their home field (SoFi Stadium) to close out the 2021 NFL season. Since trends usually happen in threes, will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona? Time will tell after eighteen weeks of the regular season.
2022 Week 7 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 correct thanks to Tennessee, Baltimore, Kansas City and Dallas
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 2/5 correct thanks to New York Jets and New York Giants
Overall picks – 6/10 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 22/35 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 16/35 correct
Overall picks – 38/70 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Pro Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay
Primetime evening kickoff (8:15 PM EST) from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida on 10/27/22. Ravens are currently tied for first place in the AFC North (4-3) with Cincinnati. Typically play in close games and don’t mind winning ugly. Still on a win-lose pattern, so Baltimore is trending for a loss in Week 8. QB Lamar Jackson continues to carry the offense on his back, but his safety net (TE Mark Andrews) is starting to warm up with 455 receiving yards and 5 TDs. Defense continues to be gashed for 366.4 yards and 23.0 points per game.
Buccaneers are on a bad two game losing streak, after not taking care of business against Pittsburgh and lowly Carolina. Definitely headed in the wrong direction. Does QB Tom Brady realize that staying retired looks significantly better than playing bad football? Not to mention less strain on his home life. Maybe Todd Bowles isn’t head coaching material. Hard to get the band back together when the members are playing from different sheets of music. Amazon Prime Video finally gets a good matchup on paper since Week 2 (Chargers vs. Chiefs). Kirk Herbstreit and Al Michaels will have a field day analyzing the Buccaneers lack of offense.
Prediction: Despite being a 1.0 road underdog, Baltimore wins a close and physical game by 4 points
4. Arizona vs. Minnesota
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota on 10/30/22. Cardinals have been inconsistent and a disappointment so far with a 3-4 record. Outlasted New Orleans in a Thursday night score fest in Week 7 (42-34). Defensive unit saved the day with two interception returns for touchdowns. QB Kyler Murray is improving with 238.1 passing yards and 37.6 rushing yards per game. RB Eno Benjamin has come out of nowhere, to fill in for injured James Conner. Benjamin will have his work cut out for him to get 100+ rushing yards against the Vikings defense. WRs and TEs are still measured by having breakout statistics during their third year in the NFL. Are RBs now trending in that same direction?
Minnesota is riding a four game winning streak and not getting any attention from the talking heads/experts. Very comfortable winning tight games due to their expedition through the 2021 NFL season. QB Kirk Cousins in playing steady football (1502 passing yards, 9 TDs). RB Dalvin Cook looks completely healthy due to averaging 75.0 rushing yards per game. WR Justin Jefferson continues to improve each week and is averaging 109.0 receiving yards per game. Defense is porous due to allowing 384.5 yards and 19.7 points per game. Rookie head coach Kevin O’Connell looks like the real deal and continues the trend of young analytical coaches having immediate success.
Prediction: Minnesota is a legitimate 3.5 point home favorite and wins by 7+ points
3. Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on 10/30/22. Battle of Pennsylvania probably won’t be that competitive. Steelers are still playing somewhat hard on defense. Offensive unit still stands around to watch the game by game growth of rookie WR George Pickens. Pittsburgh continues to keep losing close games, despite not playing with a legitimate NFL caliber QB. Rookie Kenny Pickett has cleared concussion protocal and will most likely start this game. Going to need a monster game from RB Najee Harris and WR Diontae Johnson to have a chance in this matchup. Way too many injuries to the WR and TE corps and DL to even keep this game a close contest. Head coach Mike Tomlin might have to finally admit that 2022 is a rebuilding year.
Eagles are 6-0 and rested after a bye week in Week 7. QB Jalen Hurts (1514 passing yards, 6 passing TDs, 293 rushing yards, 6 rushing TDs), has to be in the Top 5 list of NFL MVP for 2022. Michael Sanders is a stud fantasy football RB (485 rushing yards, 4 TDs), and the receiving corps now goes three players deep. Defensive unit just acquired DE Robert Quinn from Chicago via trade. Quinn will plug into a stout defense that is only giving up 297.8 yards and 17.5 points per game.
Prediction: This game could get ugly with the 11.0 point home favorite Eagles being a better team in all three phases. Philadelphia coasts to a 14 point win.
2. Green Bay vs. Buffalo
Evening primetime kickoff (8:20 PM EST) from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York on 10/30/22. When was the last time Aaron Rodgers was the starting QB for a three game losing streak? That three game losing streak is against the Giants, Jets, Commanders, and yes, that’s not a misprint of any of those teams. Welcome to the 2022 NFL season and the lack of a go-to WR, since Davante Adams has been traded to the Las Vegas Raiders. Rodgers should spend less time working on his Fox News audition and get back to playing football. Some practice, film study and motivating teammates would do Rodgers some good, but he won’t tell the media that.
Bills are riding a three game winning and coming off a bye in Week 7. Offense has to still be smiling after a huge win over Kansas City in Week 6 (24-20). QB Josh Allen (1980 passing yards, 17 TDs, 257 rushing yards, 2 TDs) has to be neck-and-neck with Jalen Hurts for NFL MVP favorite. RB Devin Singletary continues to move the chains and WR Stefon Diggs (656 receiving yards, 6 TDs) continues to stretch defensive secondaries. Bills also lead the NFL in team defense due to only allowing 281.5 yards and 13.5 points per game. First game in tough three game schedule that includes the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings. Currently the hottest team in the AFC.
Prediction: Buffalo is a solid 11.5 point home favorite and they win by 9 points
1. Tennessee vs. Houston
Lock of the week is a late afternoon kickoff (4:05 PM EST) on 10/30/22, from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. Titans are starting to roll with a four game winning streak, winning by a combined total of twenty-two points. QB Ryan Tannehill (1097 passing yards, 6 TDs) is following the team memo of handing the ball to #22 (Derrick Henry) and limiting turnovers. Henry is now averaging 89.3 rushing yards per game and has scored 5 TDs. Robert Woods continues to lead the WR corps with 230 receiving yards and 1 TD. I’d bet a buffalo nickel, that the Titans WRs and TEs are the best run blocking unit in the NFL. Head coach Mike Vrabel continues to push the correct buttons each week. Tennessee needs to tighten up on defense due to allowing 21.3 points per game.
Texans limp into this matchup at 1-4-1 after a bad loss to Las Vegas (38-20) in Week 7. QB Davis Mills (1350 passing yards, 7 TDs) needs to show improvement, before being considered an adequate game manager. WR and TE corps goes four players deep with 100+ receiving yards, but have only scored three TDs. Hidden gem on this roster is rookie RB Dameon Pierce, with 504 rushing yards and 3 TDs. Pierce slid to the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft, and he might be undersized for a full season workload (5′-11″, 218 pounds). Houston is a mess in the front office and in the locker room, but still persevering on the football field. That won’t make a difference against the smash-mouth offense of the Titans.
Prediction: Tennessee is a low 2.5 point road favorite and they’ll grind out a workmanlike victory by 7+ points
Pro Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. New England vs. New York Jets
Key AFC East matchup, with the reeling Patriots (3-4), against the suddenly hot New York Jets (5-2). New England were used and abused by the Chicago Bears defense in Week 7, losing 33-14 at home. QB Mac Jones was pulled in the second quarter for backup QB Bailey Zappe, which went over like a fart in church. RBs Rhamondre Stevenson (487 rushing yards, 4 TDs) and Damien Harris (265 rushing yards, 3 TDs) seem to be the only consistent Patriots on offense. Defense is near the middle of the pack due to surrendering 20.9 points per game.
Jets are trying to share the spotlight with the New York Giants, as the biggest surprise of the 2022 NFL regular season. Quality wins over the Dolphins and Packers, have the fan base wanting to keep pace with Buffalo in the AFC East. Season ending injuries to RB Breece Hall and G Alijah Vera-Tucker will test New York’s depth chart, and if they can deal with adversity. QB Zach Wilson has five quality targets to throw to in the WR and TE corps. Jets are good, but can they hang in the AFC East through the month of November? Patriots are a 2.5 point road favorite, but their roster is in more flux than the Jets. Gang Green fans should see their team win to get to 6-2.
4. San Francisco vs. Los Angeles Rams
AFC West rematch of the Week 4 game won easily by San Francisco (24.9). Most of the talking heads jumped on the 49ers bandwagon after that victory. A myriad of injuries to the defensive unit has decimated the starting lineup since Week 4. Traded for all-world RB Christian McCaffrey in Week 7 to jump start their offense. McCaffrey will take the burden off QB Jimmy Garoppolo, but he’ll take some time to pick up the zone run blocking scheme. Now the WR and TE corps is getting banged up due to injuries. Rams are 3-3 but can’t beat any quality teams over 0.500. Finally addressed the internal locker room issue with RB Cam Akers, by looking for an active trade partner. RBs Darrell Henderson Jr. and Malcolm Brown aren’t going to scare any defenses. Due to the 49ers depleted secondary, WR Cooper Kupp and TE Tyler Higbee will both have monster statistical games to ensure the regular season series is a split.
3. New York Giants vs. Seattle
Giants are 6-1 heading into Week 8 and are getting analyzed by every NFL expert across social media. How can this roster have the second best record in the NFL with QB Daniel Jones and rookie head coach Brian Daboll running the show? It’s simple, New York Giants beat the teams they are supposed to on their schedule, and then they have surprised the teams they are supposed to lose to (Green Bay, Baltimore). Many teams in NFL history have used this approach to make the playoffs with an 11-5 or 12-4 record. Can the Giants maintain this pace and keep Philadelphia within striking distance?
Seahawks are a surprising 4-3, after back-to-back wins over Arizona and the Los Angeles Chargers. Front office looks smarter every day, due to trading QB Russell Wilson to Denver for a boatload of draft picks and players. QB Geno Smith has thrown for 1712 passing yards and 11 TDs. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker III is just starting to cook with 410 rushing yards and 4 TDs. WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf continue to lead the WR corps, but they are both questionable to play in this game. Defense is a gapping hole due to giving up 399.1 yards and 26.6 points per game. Giants are a surprising 3.0 point road underdog and they’ll be in this game to the final play.
2. Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
I’ve been picking against the Bengals too many times in the early season. Every time they end up winning a close game when I pick them to be upset. I don’t have the stones to pick the Bears to beat Dallas this week. Cincinnati is sitting at 4-3, after back-to-back wins over New Orleans and Atlanta. QB Joe Burrow (2097 passing yards, 15 TDs), is now officially clicking again with WR Ja’Marr Chase. RB Joe Mixon (405 rushing yards, 2 TDs) is getting back up to pace. Defense is currently allowing 18.9 points per game. Browns are skidding into this matchup at 2-5 and on a four game losing streak. Three of those losses have been by a combined eight points. RB Nick Chubb (105.7 rushing yards per game) continues to run with authority. WR Amari Cooper (422 receiving yards, 4 TDs), has officially rebounded after an average 2021 season. Cleveland is a 3.5 point underdog at home, but the Dawg Pound will be loud on Monday night (10/31/22) and that’ll carry the squad into the fourth quarter.
1. Miami vs. Detroit
Dolphins welcomed back QB Tua Tagovailoa in Week 7 and he led a tight win over Pittsburgh (17-10). Miami has an easy schedule for the next four weeks (Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, Houston). If Tua takes care of the football and the defense plays smart, the Dolphins might creep back up on the Bills in the AFC East. That’s a debatable scenario in 2022, but stranger things have happened in South Beach, Florida before. Haven’t had an opportunity to wax glowingly about the always quotable head coach of Detroit, Dan Campbell. Lions have lost four straight games and could easily lose another five, to stretch that streak to nine games based on upcoming opponents (Miami, Green Bay, Chicago, New York Giants, Buffalo). Before dire times arrive at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan, I’m banking on Campbell to talk about breaking some shins and playing tough, physical football. Detroit is a 3.5 point home underdog and have a feeling they’ll be close in the third quarter.
Storylines Heading into Week 9
- Who is leading the NFL MVP race after Week 9? Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Saquon Barkley?
- Which coach is on the hot seat after Week 9?
- Crank up the hype machine for Titans vs. Chiefs and Bills vs Jets.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of Pro Football Top 5 Week 8 and try again in Week 9.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
Want to find this beer near you? Check out this article that tells you how to locate great beer near you.
