This article covers the most exciting week 10 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2022 Week 9 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 thanks to Ohio State, Georgia, Tennessee and Michigan
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 2/5 thanks to Baylor and Notre Dame
Overall picks – 6/10 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 36/45
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 17/45
Overall picks – 53/90 which is one standard deviation above the mean
Week 10 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Texas Tech vs. TCU
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 11/5/22 from Fort Worth, Texas. Red Raiders stumble into this matchup at 4-4, having lost three of their last four games. Have two quality wins (Houston, Texas) and three quality losses (NC State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State). Freshman QB Behren Morton has taken the starting spot from Donovan Smith and seems to be running with it. Offense has two quality running backs, SaRodorick Thomas and Tahj Brooks. Receiving corps goes ten players deep, who have exceeded 100+ receiving yards on the season. Defense is a sieve giving up 365.8 yards and 29.3 points per game.
Horned Frogs are rolling at 8-0 and ranked #7 in the CFP. First year head coach Sonny Dykes needs to get more attention as a leading candidate for coach of the year. QB Max Duggan continues to keep this offense running like a finely tuned sports car (2212 passing yards, 22 passing TDs, 276 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs). RB Kendre Miller likes running downhill (851 rushing yards, 11 TDs). WR Quentin Johnson (650 receiving yards, 4 TDs) headlines a six deep WR and TE corps. Only fly in the ointment for TCU, is their defensive unit allowing 402.5 yards and 27.3 points per game. For some reason, the Horned Frogs offense resembles the Golden State Warriors offense during the 2022 NBA playoffs. Enjoy this run while it lasts.
Prediction: TCU is a healthy 8.0 point home favorite and will be on cruise control in the second half for a 14+ point victory
4. Air Force vs. Army
Late morning kickoff (11:30 PM EDT) on 11/5/22 from Arlington, Texas. Second matchup of the 2022 season for the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy. Falcons head into this game at 5-3, but were physically dominated and lost to Boise State in Week 9 (19-14). QB Haaziq Daniels has run the wishbone offense well in 2022 (579 passing yards, 5 passing TDs, 358 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs). Senior RB Brad Roberts is a human bulldozer when he carries the rock, with 947 rushing yards and 13 rushing TDs. Air Force has completed twenty-eight passes for the entire season….yes the entire season.
Black Knights are 3-4 on the season, but trending up with back-to-back wins against Colgate and UL-Monroe. QB Cade Ballard also runs the wishbone offense, with 335 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, 163 rushing yards, and 1 rushing TD. RB corps is seven players deep and each have 168+ rushing yards for the season. Army trails in this series 18-37-1, despite winning in 2020 (10-7) and 2021 (21-14).
Prediction: Air Force is a solid 7.0 point favorite and this will be a close game for 60 minutes with running plays on every down. Falcons win by 4 points.
3. Tennessee vs. Georgia
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 11/5/22 from Athens, Georgia. What happens when an unstoppable force (Tennessee’s offense), meets an immovable object (Georgia’s defense)? Volunteers QB Hendon Hooker continues to be the Heisman Trophy favorite, with 2338 passing yards, 21 passing TDs, 338 rushing yards, and 4 rushing TDs. More importantly, Hooker has only thrown one interception this season. WR Jalin Hyatt broke the Volunteers team season record, with his fourteenth touchdown catch in Week 9.
Georgia has three quality wins (Oregon, South Carolina, Florida). Only been pushed in Week 5 against Missouri (26-22). Head coach Kirby Smart will match wits against Josh Heupel, to see which squad gains the upper hand in the SEC East. Bulldogs running game depth and TE crossing patterns will be their bread and butter. Defense only allows 262.6 yards and 10.5 points per game.
Prediction: Georgia is a solid 8.0 point home favorite and this will be a stressful and entertaining game to watch. Bulldogs win by 3 points with a walk off field goal.
2. Alabama vs. LSU
Primetime evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) from Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Crimson Tide enter this game at 7-1 and in a familiar position, trying to get into the CFP by making up the stagger of being ranked #6. QB Bryce Young seems to be almost 100% healthy and he’ll need to run an efficient offense under that lights in Death Valley. RB Jahmyr Gibbs has officially become “the man” in a crowded RB corps, due to running for 672 yards and 6 TDs. Helps that Gibbs can quickly turn screen passes into 301 receiving yards and 3 TDs. Head coach Nick Saban is 2-0 against Brian Kelly, due to a blowout in the 2013 BCS National Championship Game and the 2021 CFP semifinals.
LSU is 6-2, with two quality wins (Florida, Ole Miss) and two quality losses (Florida State, Tennessee). QB Jayden Daniels continues to make this blogger eat crow, due to throwing for 897 passing yards, 6 TDs and 1 INT during the last three games. Also rushed for 203 yards and 6 TDs during those same three games. Daniels has elevated his overall game during the critical part of LSU’s season. Sophomore WR Malik Nabers has had a quiet season (455 receiving yards, 1 TD), but he’s due to have one big monster statistical game in 2022. Tigers special teams unit can be unpredictable during lulls in game action. If their field goal unit can’t convert scoring opportunities, Alabama will gladly flip the field for points.
Prediction: Alabama is a big 13.0 point road favorite and they’ll win by 10 points due to the Death Valley game atmosphere
1. Clemson vs. Notre Dame
Primetime evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) from Notre Dame, Indiana. Best regular season game of 2020, is now a must win for the Tigers to keep pace in the CFP rankings. After using an epic second half comeback to beat Syracuse in Week 8 (27-21), who will start at QB for Clemson? Go with the experienced DJ Uiagaleilei who is suddenly cold? Or the freshman spark plug Cade Klubnik? Due to how the last month of the 2021 season unfolded, expect Uiagaleilei under center for the Tigers first possession and the offense will start to roll again. Unsung defense continues to be stingy allowing 332.5 yards and 19.9 points per game.
Fighting Irish have won five out of their last six games and showed intestinal fortitude, with a strong road win at Syracuse in Week 9 (41-24). QB Drew Pyne has been very inconsistent the last three games, due to completing only 48.6% of his passes. Has been bailed out by RB Audric Estime (558 rushing yards, 8 TDs) and TE Michael Mayer (580 receiving yards, 6 TDs). Estime could easily pass for a young Jerome Bettis, due to being 5′-11″ and 227 lbs. Bettis wore #6 during his college career and Estime wears #7.
Prediction: Clemson is a shaky 4.0 point road favorite and they’ll win by 6 points
Week 10 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Liberty vs. Arkansas
Liberty head coach Hugh Freeze just signed a new eight year contract to keep him leading the Flames through 2030. Freeze used to coach in the SEC at Ole Miss from 2012 at 2016. His tenure ended during the summer of 2017, due to calling a female escort service numerous times from a university issued cell phone. Returned to coaching in 2019 at Liberty and has resurrected the program, with four straight winning seasons and three bowl victories. Have a quality win (BYU) and a quality loss (Wake Forest). The entire county will see a glimpse of stud RB Dae Dae Hunter (821 rushing yards, 8 TDs) and deep threat WR Demario Douglas (615 receiving yards, 5 TDs).
Arkansas hasn’t rebounded since the Bobby Petrino years of 2008-2011. Petrino was fired in early 2012, after engaging in a relationship with a fellow University of Arkansas employee. I thought coaching the top tier teams in the SEC was hard, but didn’t realize the mid-tier teams is where the rubber literally hits the road. Razorbacks are 5-3 and they always play relatively close against ranked teams. Basically a two man team with QB KJ Jefferson and RB Raheim Sanders. Despite being a 14.5 point road underdog, Liberty will get into a score fest with Arkansas and this game will be close late in the fourth quarter.
4. Texas vs. Kansas State
Big 12 picks took a beating in Week 9 and I’m back at the buffet table for another serving. Longhorns still have a bad taste in their mouth, after losing in the final minutes against Oklahoma State in Week 8 (41-34). RB Bijan Robinson is now playing for the NFL scouts, due to his ridiculous statistics in 2022 (920 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs, 280 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs). He’ll make a risky but very rewarding early round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Wildcats are still honeymooning after shutting out Oklahoma State in Week 9 (48-0). Two headed monster at QB (Adrian Martinez, Will Howard) has opponents completely confused on whether to focus on a running or passing attack. RB Deuce Vaugh (902 rushing yards, 5 TDs) is the perfect scat back for the Kansas State offense. Texas is a 2.5 point road favorite, but Manhattan, Kansas will be loud and rocking for the suddenly strong and resilient Wildcats.
3. Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Both teams enter this matchup at 5-3 and trying to mess up the Big 12 conference standings. Bears have won back-to-back games against Kansas and Texas Tech. Helps that their defense is now playing with a chip on their shoulder (337.0 yards and 23.3 points allowed per game). Freshman phenom RB Richard Reese, is gashing all defensive fronts for 791 rushing yards and 12 TDs. Sooners have regained a little bit of their swagger with wins over Kansas and Iowa State. QB Dillon Gabriel looks more comfortable running the offense, but he needs to light a fire under the role players to increase their effort. Defense is still a work in progress (438.0 yards and 28.8 points per game). Oklahoma is a steady 3.5 point home favorite, but the Bears will be all over them in the fourth quarter.
2. Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh
Weird ACC game with the Orange (6-2) on the road at the Panthers (4-4). Syracuse was the surprise team of 2022 until back-to-back losses to Clemson and Notre Dame. Need to circle the wagons after losing DB Garrett Williams for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Plenty of young leadership on the offensive side of the ball to carry the load. Defensive side will continue to keep offenses out of the end zone, due to only allowing 18.4 points per game. Pittsburgh has two quality losses (Tennessee, North Carolina) and zero quality wins. Lone bright spot on offense has been RB Israel Abanikanda, with 1086 rushing yards, 109 receiving yards and 17 TDs. He’s only a junior, which means he can use the transfer portal to play at USC in 2023. Fight on Trojans! Orange are an inexplicable 4.0 point road underdog and they win this game easily.
1. BYU vs. Boise State
Didn’t have any confidence in Oregon State winning on the road at Washington on 11/4/22. Mountain West games always get me in trouble when I start looking at them in November as potential upsets. BYU has had a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde season, going 4-5 heading into Week 10. Quality win over Baylor, followed by a bad four game losing streak to Notre Dame, Arkansas, Liberty and East Carolina. Can it get any worse for the fan base in Provo, Utah? Just wait until the Cougars are officially playing in the Big 12 in 2023. Broncos are 6-2 and staying below all of the experts radar. QB Taylen Green leads a three headed rushing attack with RBs George Holani and Ashton Jeanty. Write down the name Andy Avalos. He’s the latest Boise State coach that will jump to a higher tier job in the next two to three seasons, if he continues to motivate his squad. Broncos are a robust 8.5 point home favorite, but I have a feeling the Cougars will hang around into the third quarter if they take care of the football.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #11
- Crank up the hype for TCU vs. Texas
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #10?
- Can the Big 12 or PAC-12 get a team into the 2023 CFP?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 week #10 and try again in week #11.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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