Week 11 College Football Exciting Games ’22

This article covers the most exciting week 11 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.

I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.

2022 Week 10 Picks Recap

Top 5 games to watch – 3/5 thanks to TCU, Air Force and Georgia

Top 5 upsets that could happen – 3/5 thanks to Liberty, Baylor and BYU

Overall picks – 6/10 which is one standard deviation above the mean

2022 All Picks Recap

Top 5 games to watch – 39/50

Top 5 upsets that could happen – 20/50

Overall picks – 59/100 which is one standard deviation above the mean

Week 11 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch

5. LSU vs. Arkansas

Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 11/12/22 from Fayetteville, Arkansas. Tigers enter this game sky high after beating Alabama in Week 10 (32-31 in OT). Suddenly new head coach Brian Kelly looks like the right hire, after Ed Orgeron was fired at the end of the 2021 season. QB Jayden Daniels (1994 passing yards, 14 passing TDs, 619 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs) is in complete control of the offense. RB Josh Williams and WR Malik Nabers need to continue to move the chains at critical junctures, to ensure LSU can finish the 2022 season strong.

Razorbacks are 5-4 heading into this game after a tough loss at home to Liberty in Week 10 (21-19). Have one quality win (Cincinnati) and one quality loss (Alabama). This blogger continues to state that Arkansas is an improving team and being led to bigger and better things by head coach Sam Pittman. They seem to be one-to-two years away from being a consistent mid-tier SEC team, and they always run out of gas in the second half of the season. Wash, rinse, repeat are consistent directions to use for your shampoo, but not applicable for multiple seasons in the ultra-tough SEC.

Prediction: LSU is a small 3.5 point road favorite and they’ll cover due to winning by 7+ points

4. Purdue vs. Illinois

Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 11/12/22 from Champaign, Illinois. Boilermakers enter this game at 5-4 and on a bad two game losing streak. Have a quality win (Minnesota) and two quality losses (Penn State, Syracuse). Senior QB Aiden O’Connell has had a good but not great season (2438 passing yards, 15 TDs, 10 INTs). Freshman RB Devin Mockobee and senior WR Charlie Jones have done the heavy lifting to move the chains and score points on offense. Defense is allowing 355.7 yards and 25.3 points per game.

Fighting Illini are a surprising 7-2, but have two bad losses (Indiana, Michigan State). Head coach Bret Bielma has reignited his coaching career in the Big Ten, after getting fired at Arkansas in 2017. Bielma still likes to eat a slice or two of pie at all Village Inns near a Big Ten school. Illinois has a three headed monster on offense, with QB Tommy DeVito (1882 passing yards, 14 TDs), RB Chase Brown (1344 rushing yards, 5 TDs) and WR Isaiah Washington (537 receiving yards, 5 TDs). Fighting Illini still rely on their top notch defense (232.2 yards and 10.4 points per game). That’s statistically better than the 2022 Georgia Bulldogs defensive unit…let that sink in for a minute.

Prediction: Illinois is a solid 6.5 point home favorite and they cover winning by 10 points

3. Alabama vs. Ole Miss

Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 11/12/22 from Oxford, Mississippi. Rebound time for head coach Nick Saban and his Crimson Tide squad. Have lost two games in three weeks (Tennessee, LSU), for the first time since 2008. That season ended with a close loss to Florida in the SEC Championship Game (31-20), and then Alabama sleep walked through the Sugar Bowl against Utah (31-17). Saban likes to work on fundamentals and being a technically sound team in all three phases of the game. Will need to find some WRs willing and able to stretch the field for QB Bryce Young. Until that happens, RB Jahmyr Gibbs can only do so much by catching every screen pass.

Rebels head into the game at 8-1, but are still trying to forget a bad loss to LSU (45-20) in Week 8. Feature two headed RB monster of Quinshon Judkins (1036 rushing yards, 13 TDs) and Zach Evans (680 rushing yards, 7 TDs). WR and TE corps goes five players deep with 100+ receiving yards on the season. Can head coach Lane Kiffin really match wits with the GOAT (Nick Saban) and prevail when Alabama is trending down? Don’t count on it based on history.

Prediction: Alabama is a strong 12.0 point road favorite which will be almost impossible to cover. After a week of practices from hell, the Crimson Tide grind out a 7 point win.

2. Washington vs. Oregon

Primetime evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) from Eugene. Oregon. Tasty PAC-12 matchup with CFP and Rose Bowl implications. Huskies have had an impressive bounce back campaign and enter this game at 7-2. Portal transfer QB Michael Penix Jr. has had a phenomenal season (3232 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 2 rushing TDs). Biggest question in the Puget Sound, will be whether Penix returns for his senior season or heads to the 2023 NFL Draft. RBs Wayne Taulapapa (6 TDs) and Cameron Davis (10 TDs) help keep defenses from focusing solely on Penix Jr. Huskies lead this series 60-48-5, but haven’t won since 2017.

Ducks are swimming along nicely at 8-1 and ranked #6 in the CFP. Week 1 blowout loss to Georgia (49-3) is a distant memory. New head coach Dan Lanning has wiped the slate clean inside the Oregon locker room, and Autzen Stadium is once again a premier spot to watch a game. Helps that transfer portal QB Bo Nix has exceeded all expectations (2495 passing yards, 22 passing TDs, 457 rushing yards, 13 rushing TDs). Nix is quickly moving up the experts Heisman Trophy favorite lists across the country. Defense is still their Achilles heel due to allowing 384.1 yards and 26.3 points per game. Should be a great QB battle under the lights, in a crisp temperature but dry weather game. Get ready for a score fest.

Prediction: Oregon is a legitimate 13.0 point home favorite and this game will be close for three quarters. Ducks win by 10 points.

1. Texas A&M vs. Auburn

Primetime evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) from Auburn, Alabama. The ugliest SEC matchup for the 2022 season has finally arrived. Aggies limp into this game at 3-6 and sporting a bad five game losing streak. Three of those are considered quality losses (Alabama, Ole Miss, Florida). Texas A&M has had a season to forget due to poor coaching, no roster depth, inadequate coaching, critical injuries, below average coaching, lack of game planning, the list goes on and on. Locker room believed the hype of “landing” the #1 recruiting class in Spring 2022, before playing a single down. That strategy has backfired badly.

Tigers are a more dysfunctional program than the Aggies and also have a 3-6 record. Haven’t recovered from the physical thrashing Penn State gave them in Week 3 (41-12). Conducted an internal review of the coaching staff and culture after the 2021 season due to player complaints, which resulted in Brian Harsin’s firing after Week 9. This isn’t a mid-tier SEC football team anymore, Tigers are emulating Initech from the movie Office Space. Before the players continue to tank and not care, the boosters and athletic department have to figure out who wants to coach at this graveyard. This game won’t help that sales pitch whatsoever.

Prediction: Auburn is a 1.5 point favorite due to playing at home, but this game is truly a coin flip. Texas A&M finds a way to win a bumpy game by 4 points.

Week 11 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen

5. East Carolina vs. Cincinnati

Pirates lead this series 13-12-0, with the Bearcats having won the last four meetings (2018-2021) by an average of 28.3 points. Seems like a mismatch at first glance, but East Carolina is 6-3 with two two quality wins (BYU, UCF) and two quality losses (NC State, Tulane). Pirates are comfortable playing close games and still want to make some noise in the American Conference standings. Cincinnati hasn’t experienced a CFP hangover in 2022 and are 7-2 heading into this game. Could be caught looking ahead to Week 13, when they face Tulane, which will impact the American Conference Championship Game participants. East Carolina is currently a 5.0 point road underdog, but they’ll play hard for sixty minutes and hang close on the scoreboard.

4. UCF vs. Tulane

The other American Conference game of the week that will impact conference championship participants. Golden Knights are 7-2 with a quality win over Cincinnati in Week 9 (25-21). John Rhys Plumlee continues to play as the least known dual-threat QB in the country (1883 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 532 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs). Undersized for the NFL (6′-0″, 200 lbs), but the guy can definitely play ball. Green Wave is an impressive 8-1, with a big early season road victory over Kansas State in Week 3 (17-10). Tulane’s offense averages 418.7 yards and 32.9 points per game. Defense allows 307.3 yards and 16.9 points per game. Point differential of 16.0 per game (32.9 – 16.9), is the most efficient way to be 8-1 heading into Week 11. Entertaining game that will be close for four quarters and could easily go to overtime. Expect UCF to ignore being a 1.5 point underdog and will win in walk off fashion.

3. South Carolina vs. Florida

Head coach Shane Beamer continues to fly below the radar at South Carolina. Went 7-6 in 2021, and beat North Carolina (38-21) in the Dukes Mayo Bowl (arguably the best post game celebration). Gamecocks are currently 6-3, have a quality win (Kentucky) and two quality losses (Arkansas, Georgia). Transfer portal QB Spence Rattler has continued his inconsistent play from 2021 (1837 passing yards, 8 TDs). His 2020 statistics look more and more like an outlier with each game in 2022. Gators are 5-4 heading into this game and continue to makes strides towards a respectable SEC squad. Dual threat QB Anthony Richardson (1839 passing yards, 9 passing TDs, 492 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs), seems to be maturing on a weekly basis. Sky is the limit if he stays in school and focuses on his leadership role in the huddle and the locker room. Florida is a big 8.0 point home favorite, but have a gut feeling that South Carolina will be ready to play and compete deep into the fourth quarter.

2. TCU vs. Texas

Should technically be one of the Top 5 games of the week, but the point spread is too high to ignore with Texas being a 7.5 point home favorite. Horned Frogs outlasted Texas Tech (34-24) in Week 10 and are now ranked #4 in the CFP. The only way for TCU to stay in the CFP semi-finals picture, is to win the rest of their games (Texas, Baylor, Iowa State, Big 12 Championship Game). Big 12 conference has had its moments in 2022, but is much weaker than the SEC and Big Ten heading into Week 11. Longhorns have shown a lot of moxie this season and are the most dangerous 6-3 team in the country. Three loses were by a combined eleven points to quality opponents (Alabama, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State). Steve Sarkisian has finally figured out how to rely on solid assistant coaches in order to excel on the field. Most entertaining game of Week 11 and it’ll be close for four quarters. Several momentum changes due to turnovers, will cause the Horned Frogs to remain unbeaten heading into Week 12.

1. North Carolina vs. Wake Forest

Tarheels have climbed up to #15 in the CFP ranks with literally no defense (457.7 yards and 31.0 points allowed per week). Helps that freshman QB Drake Maye (2964 passing yards, 31 TDs, 513 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs) has made a seamless transition to the starting role. North Carolina has statistically the eighth best offense in the country (496.8 yards and 41.0 points per game). Head coach Mack Brown came out of retirement to run a kinetic fast break offense. So far that strategy is working. Demon Deacons are 6-3, and coming off back-to-back losses to Louisville and NC State. QB Sam Hartman only completed 59.0% of his passes and threw six interceptions during those two losses. WR A.T. Perry went off in Week 10 (12 catches, 159 receiving yards, 1 TD) and is ready to put an exclamation point on the 2022 season. Wake Forest is a steady 4.0 point home favorite, but North Carolina will be in this game to the final play.

Storylines to follow heading into Week #12

• Crank up the hype for USC vs. UCLA and Utah vs. Oregon
• Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #11?
• Can the Big 12 or PAC-12 get a team into the 2023 CFP?

Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 week #11 and try again in week #12.

Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!

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