2023 Week 11 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 5/5 thanks to Alabama, Florida State, Washington, Georgia and LSU
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 1/5 thanks to Missouri
Overall picks – 6/10 and I’m riding steady
2023 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 48/55
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 23/55
Overall picks – 71/110 which means I’m keeping enough air in the car tires
Week 12 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Louisville vs. Miami
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 11/18/23 from Miami Gardens, Florida. Critical ACC matchup as Louisville (9-1) continues to wait in the weeds for a chance to play Florida State. Cardinals have a cozy three game winning streak and are ranked #10 in the CFP. QB Jack Plummer (2402 passing yards, 16 passing TDs) continues to be an efficient game manager. Offense will go as far as RB Jawhar Jordan (11 rushing TDs) and WR Jamari Thrash (6 receiving TDs), takes them. Defense continues to make big plays and only allows 17.1 points per game.
Hurricanes (6-4) are mired in a two game losing streak and gave Florida State fits in Week 11 (losing 27-20). Senior QB Tyler Van Dyke gets the starting nod, after the gruesome elbow injury suffered by Emory Williams. Have a solid five deep WR/TE corps, but interceptions continue to haunt this offensive unit. Defense is better than advertised, due to giving up 312.5 yards and 20.7 points per game.
Prediction: Louisville is a dangerous team and wins a close game by 6 points.
4. Utah vs. Arizona
Afternoon kickoff (2:30 PM EDT) on 11/18/23 from Tucson, Arizona. Utes have lost two out of three games and really miss injured QB Cameron Rising. The surprising depth of the PAC-12 has caught up to Kyle Whittingham’s squad this season. Three deep RB corps will move the chains and four deep WR corps will try to stretch the field vertically. Defense has 30 sacks, 8 INTs and 6 fumble recoveries. Will need to win the turnover battle to stay in this game.
Something is cooking in the Tucson desert, with the Wildcats on an impressive four game winning streak. Three of those victories were over Top 25 ranked teams. Head coach Jedd Fisch is staying below the radar, but has shown that spending fifteen seasons as an assistant coach in the NFL can lead to success. WR Jacob Cowing (534 receiving yards, 10 TDs) is a diamond in the rough. Desert Swarm is keeping the Arizona student section entertained, while the basketball team continues to get big road wins.
Prediction: Defensive slugfest for sixty minutes and Arizona wins by 4 points.
3. Georgia vs. Tennessee
Afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 11/18/23 from Knoxville, Tennessee. This blogger tries to avoid riding a hot team week after week to pad his accuracy statistics. Here’s Georgia for the fourth straight week, due to the depth of the SEC having good matchups late in the season. Bulldogs are 10-0 and will coast into the SEC Championship Game on 12/2/23. Offense is clicking at 504.8 yards and 40.6 points per game. Defense has gone into lockdown mode by only allowing 289.2 yards and 15.6 points per game. Pick your poison, but Georgia is almost a lock for the CFP yet again.
Volunteers don’t have a win against a ranked opponent this season and were taken to the woodshed by Missouri in Week 11 (36-7 loss). 2022 squad had team comradery and a scary passing attack. 2023 squad is lacking an identity in the red zone and seem to lose focus after halftime. Both of those habits will rear their ugly head again this week.
Prediction: Georgia has a workmanlike road trip and wins by 9 points.
2. Kansas State vs. Kansas
Evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) on 11/18/23 from Lawrence, Kansas. The battle for the Sunflower State has both teams entering this matchup with 7-3 records. Wildcats have won four of their last five games and can light up a scoreboard. Have an outside chance up moving up the Big 12 standings and into the league championship game on 12/2/23, if things go their way. QB Will Howard (2190 passing yards, 300 rushing yards, 28 total TDs), has had a solid bounce back and injury free season. RBs DJ Giddens and Treshaun Ward will split up the workload of carrying the rock. WR Phillip Brooks and TE Ben Sinnott headline a six deep receiving corps.
Jayhawks are bowl eligible and still smarting after a walk off loss to Texas Tech in Week 11 (16-13). Solid rushing game (199.0 yards) and an opportunistic passing attack (226.0 yards), leads to 32.9 points scored per game. If backup QB Jason Bean doesn’t have any delusions of grandeur, Kansas will continue to move the ball on offense.
Prediction: Point spread is too high at 10.0 points and Kansas State wins by 8 points.
1. Texas vs. Iowa State
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) on 11/18/23 from Ames, Iowa. Longhorns are 9-1 and quietly sitting at #7 in the CFP rankings. Patiently waiting for the teams in front of them to stumble. Head coach Steve Sarkisian continues to preach that their road win at Alabama in Week 2, is the biggest victory in the entire 2023 college football season. Using that logic, Indiana Jones should have stopped after finding the Ark of the Covenant in “Raiders of the Lost Ark.” Moviegoers would have missed Jones’ dad helping find the Holy Grail in “The Last Crusade.” Sark needs to focus on his game planning and keep his squad’s expectations low.
Cyclones are 6-4 and have won four of their last five games. Currently finding a way to score 25.7 points per game. QB Rocco Becht will lean on his RBs (Eli Sanders, Cartevious Norton) and WRs (Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel), to hang with the much deeper and talented Texas roster. Iowa State will keep this game interesting during the first half and will then run out of gas.
Prediction: Texas finds a new gear in the second half and wins by 14+ points.
Week 12 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. North Carolina vs. Clemson
Tarheels are coming off an exciting and emotional win over Duke in Week 11 (47-45 in 2OT). Won’t make it to the ACC Championship game in Week 14, but North Carolina needs to elevate their bowl status. Not a fan of Mack Brown, but he’d enjoy putting a nail in Dabo Swinney’s coaching coffin for the 2023 season. Tigers are 6-4 and riding a two game winning streak over Notre Dame and Georgia Tech, to help confuse the sportsbooks in Las Vegas. QB Cade Klubnik is starting to figure things out during pre-snap reads at the line of scrimmage. This blogger will still take QB Drake Maye and a North Carolina squad that is an inexplicable 8.0 point road underdog.
4. UCLA vs. USC
2023 edition of the Battle of Los Angeles won’t be as good, as the 1999 album of the same name released by Rage Against the Machine. Bruins are a ho-hum 6-4 and riding a bad two game losing steak due to Arizona and Arizona State. Have a signature win over Washington State and quality losses against Utah and Oregon State. That type of resume gets a program on ticker status only, with no ESPN nightly highlights. Trojans are 7-4 and have won one game in their last five games. That happened to be a one point victory over lowly California. Year two of Lincoln Riley’s tenure as head coach has been a disaster. That means Texas A&M will try to throw a bunch of money at him to move yet again. That storyline will be more interesting than this game. UCLA will be motivated as a 5.0 point road underdog.
3. NC State vs. Virginia Tech
ACC Conference is like a magnet this week for game predictions. Wolfpack is 7-3 and has quality wins over Clemson and Miami. Lost to Louisville by three points. Senior dual threat QB Brennan Armstrong (1084 passing yards, 6 passing TDs, 433 rushing yards, 4 TDs), needs to share the ball more with his teammates. Freshman WR Kevin Concepcion (573 receiving yards, 6 TDs) has made an impact with NC State’s offensive formations. Hokies have been toiling in anonymity for the last decade and are a surprising 5-5. Have defeated the teams they are supposed to beat (Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College). Have lost to teams they are supposed to (Rutgers, Louisville, Purdue, Florida State). Always nice to see the Enter Sandman entrance at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Virginia. NC State will ignore that crowd pumping routine and the 2.5 point road underdog betting line.
2. UCF vs. Texas Tech
Golden Knights had a statement win in Week 11 over a good Oklahoma State team (45-3). That helps put a five game losing streak in the rear view window. Recycled head coach Gus Malzahn seems to poke his head up at least once a season, similar to Punxsutawney Phil. UCF is 5-5 during their inaugural season in the Big 12 conference and want to become bowl eligible. Despite only being 5′-8″, senior RB RJ Harvey (1082 rushing yards, 12 TDs), has the tools to play on Sundays in 2024.
Red Raiders stole victory from the jaws of defeat in Week 11 against Kansas (16-13). Same squad that took Oregon to the wire in Week 2 before losing 38-30. RB Tahj Brooks (1170 rushing yards, 8 TDs) is the Texas Tech offense. Expect a heavy run game by both teams and UCF wants to prove the 2.5 point road underdog betting line doesn’t apply.
1. Washington vs. Oregon State
Technically the game of the week, but the fluctuating betting line causes this to be an upset pick. Huskies are 10-0 and ranked #5 in the CFP. Trying not to look too far ahead to the PAC-12 Championship game against Oregon. Seem to play looser and more comfortable on the road. QB Michael Penix Jr. has cooled down to average 353.3 passing yards per game. Only distraction will be the media speculation if head coach Kalen DeBoer becomes a viable candidate for Texas A&M. Beavers play a good physical style of football on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Strong running game, consistent passing game, and a defense focused on turnovers will try to slow the Washington offense down. That’s a big task even when playing at home. Huskies won’t pay attention to being a 1.0 point road underdog at kickoff and will take care of business.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #13
- Crank up the hype machine for Oregon State vs. Oregon
- Is the third time the charm for Ohio State vs. Michigan?
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #12?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 Week #12 and try again in Week #13.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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