2023 Week 12 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 5/5 thanks to Louisville, Arizona, Georgia, Kansas State and Texas
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 3/5 thanks to UCLA, NC State and Washington
Overall picks – 8/10 and I’m back in the saddle again
2023 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 53/60
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 26/60
Overall picks – 79/120 which means I’m getting near cruising altitude
Week 13 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Oregon State vs. Oregon
Late evening kickoff (8:30 PM EDT) on 11/24/23 from Eugene, Oregon. Beavers are 8-3 and have lost those three games by a combined total of eight points. Pushed Washington to the brink in Week 12 by playing an almost perfect second half, before losing by two points (22-20). RB Damien Martinez (1147 rushing yards, 9 TDs) looked like a human bowling ball in Week 12, and loves running north and south. For some reason, transfer portal QB DJ Uiagalelei was pulled from his starting role for one series against Washington, and it killed their first half offensive momentum.
Ducks are rolling at 10-1 and licking their chops for a potential rematch with Washington in the PAC-12 Conference Championship Game on 12/1/23. Riding a cozy five game winning streak and QB Bo Nix (3539 passing yards, 35 passing TDs, 128 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs), is getting serious about winning the Heisman Trophy. If Oregon’s defense continues to be stingy (310.0 yards and 16.7 points allowed per game), they will be a tough out in the CFP.
Prediction: Will be competitive for three quarters and then Oregon imposes their offensive will to win by 10+ points.
4. Kentucky vs. Louisville
Afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 11/15/23 from Louisville, Kentucky. Wildcats have wilted down the stretch run in the SEC, losing five of their last six games. QB Devin Leary has regressed statistically the last three weeks and will rely heavily on RB Ray Davis (990 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs). Davis hasn’t topped the 100 yard rushing mark during the last four games, so WRs Dane Key and Tayvion Robinson will have to elevate running their routes.
Cardinals are the most dangerous team in football right now and sitting at 10-1. Win this game, beat an undermanned Florida State team in the ACC Championship game on 12/2/23, and then chaos will officially happen to the CFP bracket. Hard to believe that Louisville lost to a bad Pittsburgh team in Week 7 (38-21). First year head coach Jeff Brohm needs to continue to push the right buttons to keep his talented team on track.
Prediction: Closer than expected rivalry game and Louisville wins by 7 points.
3. Arizona vs. Arizona State
Afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 11/25/23 from Tempe, Arizona. Last rivalry game for these two programs in the PAC-12 Conference, before they both move to the Big 12 in 2024. Wildcats are 8-3 and red hot during a five game winning streak. Offense is averaging 438.4 yards and 32.1 points per game. Defense is surrendering too many yards per game (344.5), but are stingier in the red zone (20.6 points per game). Starting QB, RB and WR are all underclassmen, so this squad will continue to trend up in 2024.
Sun Devils have had a forgettable season at 3-8. Defense has played stout against top tier opponents (USC, Washington, UCLA). Inconsistent offensive unit has tried using four different QBs and no depth at RB and WR. That has led to only averaging 323.7 yards and scoring 17.3 points per game. Series is tight after 96 meetings, with Arizona having a slight historical edge at 50-45-1.
Prediction: Arizona utilizes a heavy run offense and wins by 9+ points.
2. Washington State vs. Washington
Late afternoon kickoff (4:00 PM EDT) on 11/25/23 from Seattle, Washington. 2023 edition of the Apple Cup will have two teams heading in opposite directions. Cougars started the season at 4-0, with quality wins over Wisconsin and Oregon State. Cratered with a six game losing streak, before blowing out Colorado in Week 12 (56-14). Another ho-hum season in Pulman, Washington despite having talented QB Cameron Ward (3415 passing yards, 22 passing TDs). Thanks to a gut check win on the road at Oregon State (22-20) in Week 12, the Huskies are now ranked #4 in the latest CFP poll. Fantasy football owners are salivating about WR Rome Odunze (1206 receiving yards, 11 TDs) possibly playing on Sundays in 2024. Odunze is deceptively fast and sure handed for a “big” receiver (6′-3″, 215 lbs). Apple Cup started in 1900 and Washington has been dominant with a 75-33-6 historical record.
Prediction: Washington will focus on refining their playbook during a 14+ point victory.
1. Florida State vs. Florida
Primetime evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) on 11/25/23 from Gainesville, Florida. Interesting ACC vs. SEC matchup, with big CFP implications. Seminoles need to display some intestinal fortitude after losing their starting QB, Jordan Travis, to a season ending leg injury during Week 12. Backup QB Tate Rodemaker will have to grow up in a hurry and take charge in the huddle. Not sure if Rodemaker is the next Cardale Jones. Florida State has a deep and talented roster that will need to step up if they can find a way back into the CFP bracket.
Gators have had a turbulent season at 5-6 and are trending down with a four game losing streak. Close losses to Arkansas (39-36) and Missouri (33-31), have doomed Billy Napier’s second season as the Florida head coach. Gators will try to match the team speed of Florida State, but without starting QB Graham Mertz, this game will get out of hand early on the scoreboard.
Prediction: Florida State shows a refocused team effort and wins by 10 points.
Week 13 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. UTSA vs. Tulane
Time to dabble in the American Athletic Conference, Winner of this game books a date in the conference championship game on 12/2/23 against SMU. Roadrunners are on a seven game winning streak and peaking at the right time. On field chemistry between QB Frank Harris and WR Joshua Cephus is worth watching. Tulane has used their 2023 Cotton Bowl win over USC as a springboard during the 2023 season, sitting at 10-1 and on a nine game winning streak. Mercurial freshman RB Makhi Hughes (1080 rushing yards, 6 TDs) will pound the rock early and often. This game feels like a toss up and this blogger thinks UTSA will play big despite being a 3.5 point road underdog.
4. Air Force vs. Boise State
Back to the Mountain West Conference (MWC) to try and find a golden nugget or two if possible. Falcons were coasting at 8-0 and then hit a bad pothole with three straight losses to Army, Hawaii and UNLV. The wheels have come off the wishbone offense and the defensive unit is getting gashed by deep pass plays and crossing routes. Will the blue AstroTurf in Boise, Idaho have a calming affect for the jet jockeys?
Broncos have had a quiet season at 6-5, but could move into the MWC Championship game on 12/2/23 with a win and some luck. RB Ashton Jeanty (1006 rushing yards, 12 TDs) and WR Eric McAlister (873 receiving yards, 5 TDs) will continue to do the heavy lifting. Air Force needs to take the air out of the ball and run a ball control offense, to overcome a 7.0 point betting line as a road underdog.
3. Ohio State vs. Michigan
Here I go again isn’t just a popular 1987 song by Whitesnake and played heavily on MTV. This blogger is leaning towards Ohio State for the third straight season as they take on archrival Michigan. Buckeyes were the better team in 2021 and ran into a physical Michigan defense. 2022 game was a surprise, with the Wolverines using a simplified power running game on the road. Now its time for the third act in a rivalry that has taken a weird and unexpected turn, with Michigan being considered one of the best teams in the country, despite playing a weak schedule. Due to sign stealing gate coincidentally starting with the Wolverines getting good, I’m picking karma to even out this series in 2023. Ohio State doesn’t care about the 3.5 point road underdog betting line and Ryan Day is an underrated head coach.
2. North Carolina vs. NC State
Another rivalry game that North Carolina leads the historical series 68-38-6. Tarheels looked out of gas and overmatched against Clemson in Week 12 (31-20 loss). Fan base is very nervous that QB Drake Maye and stud RB Omarion Hampton (1414 rushing yards, 15 TDs), could be headed to a different program in 2024 via the transfer portal. Defense has been Swiss cheese giving up 396.5 yards and 26.0 points per game. Wolfpack are on a four game winning streak and playing with a ton of confidence. Dual threat QB Brennan Armstrong (14 total TDs) continues to lead by example. WR Kevin Concepcion (636 receiving yards, 8 TDs) stretches the field vertically. Hoping that simple business model pays off one more week, with NC State being a 2.5 point home underdog.
1. Iowa vs. Nebraska
The dreaded fifth upset pick of the week. Had to dig deep to find this lackluster matchup. Iowa has already clinched their sacrificial spot in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game on 12/2/23. Are 9-2 due to a blowout loss to Penn State and a two point loss to Minnesota. Big Ten will have to revamp their championship game rules, if Iowa keeps advancing every other season to simply get blown out on national television. Cornhuskers are bad, as in really bad, and not in the cool connotation that word takes for elementary school kids. Matt Rhule’s first season experiment in Lincoln, Nebraska is 5-6 and laboring through a bad three game losing streak. Hawkeyes will run the ball, find their TE’s on short routes and bleed the clock to overcome a 3.0 point road underdog betting line.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #14
- Crank up the hype machine for Alabama vs. Georgia in the SEC Championship Game
- Get ready for the conference championship games and potential CFP chaos
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #13?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 Week #13 and try again in Week #14.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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