This article covers the most exciting week 14 College Football games to watch. Week 14 is here and that means ten conference championship matchups. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2022 Week 13 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 2/5 thanks to Kansas State and USC
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 2/5 thanks to Tulane and Oregon State
Overall picks – 4/10 which is one standard deviation below the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 48/65
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 26/65
Overall picks – 74/130 which is one standard deviation above the mean
Week 14 College Football Top 10 Games to Watch
10. Conference USA Championship Game: North Texas vs. UTSA
Primetime evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) on 12/2/22 from the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. Mean Green enter this matchup at 7-5 vs. the Roadrunners at 10-2. Rematch of the Week 8 game that UTSA won 31-27. North Texas led that game after the third quarter 13-10, and then both teams erupted to score 35 combined points in the fourth quarter. UTSA dominated the offensive statistics with 495 total yards, to North Texas gaining 347 yards. Roadrunners also controlled the clock by having the ball for 38:23 out of 60:00 playing time. Despite dominating the stat sheet, UTSA needed a 10 yard TD pass with 00:15 left in regulation to win the game.
Prediction: UTSA is a solid 8.5 point home favorite and trying to beat North Texas for the fifth straight time in the I-35 rivalry. Entertaining game that will come down to the final possession and the Roadrunners win by 7 points.
9. PAC-12 Championship Game: Utah vs. USC
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) on 12/2/22 from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. Utes enter this matchup at 9-3 vs. the Trojans at 11-1. Rematch of the Week 7 game that Utah won 43-42. Utah QB Cameron Rising (415 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, 60 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs) and TE Dalton Kincaid (16 receptions, 234 receiving yards, 1 TD) were unstoppable. Rising ran for a two point conversion with 00:48 left in the game to seal the upset. USC QB Caleb Williams had a monster game (381 passing yards, 5 TDs), but the Trojans defense couldn’t hold the lead late in the fourth quarter. USC leads this series 13-8-0, but have lost the last two games to Utah in 2021 and 2022. Utes are simply kryptonite to the Trojans wooden horse.
Prediction: USC is a shaky 2.5 point neutral site favorite and need to win to ensure being included in the 2023 CFP. Most entertaining game of the weekend and the Trojans win by 3 points with a walk off FG.
8. Big 12 Championship Game: Kansas State vs. TCU
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 12/3/22 from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Wildcats enter this matchup at 9-3 vs. the Horned Frogs at 12-0. Rematch of the Week 8 game that TCU won 38-28. Kansas State led that game 28-10 midway through the second quarter and then were steamrolled for 28 straight points. Running QB Adrian Martinez was knocked out of the game after the first series and backup QB Will Howard quickly adjusted to a passing offense. TCU didn’t panic and got on a roll with QB Max Duggan (280 passing yards, 3 TDs) and RB Kendre Miller (153 rushing yards, 3 TDs), which led the big comeback. Both teams are almost a mirror image of each other on offense, but the Wildcats are a better defensive unit. This will be a technical and physical game for sixty minutes.
Prediction: TCU is a tight 2.5 point neutral site favorite and their defense will chip in with two key turnovers leading to a 9 point victory
7. MAC Championship Game: Toledo vs. Ohio
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 12/3/22 from Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. Rockets enter this matchup at 7-5 vs. the Bobcats at 9-3. Both teams did not play each other during the 2022 Mid-American Conference regular season. Toledo played very close in four of their losses (3 points to San Diego State, 7 points to Buffalo, 7 points to Bowling Green, 6 points to Western Michigan). On the flip side, Ohio took care of business against the same opponents in a big way (beat Buffalo by 21 points, Bowling Green by 24 points, Western Michigan by 19 points).
Prediction: Toledo is a 3.0 point road favorite, due to Ohio having to start second string QB CJ Harris. Bobcats play their best offensive game of the season and win by 10+ points.
6. Sun Belt Championship Game: Coastal Carolina vs. Troy
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 12/2/22 from Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama. Chanticleers enter this matchup at 9-2 vs. the Trojans at 10-2. Both teams did not play each other during the 2022 Sun Belt Conference regular season. Trying to find something that differentiates these two teams is easier said than done.
Both have “quality” wins over Marshall and Army. Coastal Carolina offense averages 409.1 yards and 29.4 points per game. Troy offense averages 371.4 yards and 24.6 points per game. Coastal Carolina’s defense is being held together by duct tape and bailing wire (allowing 412.7 yards and 28.7 points per game). Troy’s defense is stout (316.8 yards and only 16.8 points per game). If ESPN mentions that Dustin Johnson is the most famous alumni from Coastal Carolina, and he made $35M on the LIV Golf tour in 2022 after defecting from the PGA Tour, this blogger will vomit and turn his television off.
Prediction: Troy is a big 8.5 point home favorite and they cover winning by 9+ points
5. SEC Championship Game: LSU vs. Georgia
Late afternoon kickoff (4:00 PM EST) on 12/3/22 from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Tigers enter this matchup at 9-3 vs. the Bulldogs at 12-0. Both teams did not play each other during the 2022 Southeastern Conference regular season. LSU was playing solid football until losing to a weak Texas A&M squad in Week 13 (38-23). Starting dual threat QB Jayden Daniels (2566 passing yards, 15 passing TDs, 824 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs), spent the week in a walking boot due to a bad ankle sprain. As of now, he’s going to start in this game. If Daniels isn’t playing at full speed, the scoreboard will get ugly.
Georgia has won fourteen straight games dating back to the tail end of the 2021 season. Have no weaknesses in all three phases of the game. Smothering opponents with a defensive unit that is only allowing 11.3 points per game. Head coach Kirby Smart has built a solid program for the long haul in the tough SEC.
Prediction: Georgia will sputter on offense for about the first 15-20 minutes of the game and then they’ll dominate the line of scrimmage to win by 14+ points
4. American Athletic Championship Game: UCF vs. Tulane
Late afternoon kickoff (4:00 PM EST) on 12/3/22 from Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, Louisiana. Knights enter this matchup at 9-3 vs. the Green Wave at 10-2. Rematch of the Week 11 game that UCF won 38-31. Knights dominated time of possession (35:24 to 24:36) and total rushing (336 yards to 155 yards). Tulane had two costly turnovers and never led after giving up an opening drive FG. Senior UCF QB John Rhys Plumlee is a big game dual threat player. Junior Tulane QB Michael Pratt is a prototypical passer, and can be a sneaky runner with draw plays and red zone sweeps. Definitely tune in for the fourth quarter to watch this scorefest.
Prediction: Almost impossible to beat a top notch opponent on their field twice in the same season. Green Wave is a steady 4.0 point home favorite and they take care of business with a 6 point victory.
3. Mountain West Championship Game: Fresno State vs. Boise State
Late afternoon kickoff (4:00 PM EST) on 12/3/22 from Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. Bulldogs enter this matchup at 8-4 vs. the Broncos at 9-3. Rematch of the Week 6 game that Boise State won 40-20. Broncos dominated that game, gaining 443 total yards of offense to the Bulldogs 233 total yards. Boise State unleased the two headed running attack of George Holani (157 yards) and Ashton Jenty (109 yards) to control the clock. The television announcing crew will spend an inordinate amount of time talking about the NFL potential of Fresno State’s senior QB, Jake Haener (2432 passing yards, 17 TDs). Haener has a big cannon of an arm, but he needs to bulk up his overall body weight to survive on Sundays in 2023.
Prediction: Boise State has been the head of the class for the MWC during the entire 2022 season and they win by 8 points
2. Big Ten Championship Game: Purdue vs. Michigan
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EST) on 12/3/22 from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. Boilermakers enter this matchup at 8-4 vs. the Wolverines at 12-0. Both teams did not play each other during the 2022 Big Ten regular season. Purdue has two quality wins (Minnesota, Illinois) and two close quality losses (Penn State, Syracuse). Senior QB Aidan O’Connell (3124 passing yards, 22 TDs), will be playing with a heavy heart due to the recent passing of his older brother. The entire Boilermakers roster will rally around O’Connell to try and slow down the suddenly hot Wolverines.
Michigan smoked Ohio State in Week 13 (45-23), behind a running game that is even more potent than the 2021 squad. RB Donovan Edwards will fill the starting spot of injured RB Blake Corum, without missing a beat. Passing game is just getting warmed up with QB J.J. McCarthy, which is perfect timing for the 2023 CFP.
Prediction: Michigan is a big 16.5 point neutral site favorite and they coast to a 14+ point victory
1. ACC Championship Game: Clemson vs. North Carolina
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EST) on 12/3/22 from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. Tigers enter this matchup at 10-2 vs. the Tarheels at 9-3. Both teams did not play each other during the 2022 Atlantic Coast Conference regular season. Clemson decided not to back into the CFP due to a bad home loss to South Carolina in Week 13 (31-30). Starting QB DJ Uiagalelei is back to his usual form of disappearing in big games. Not sure if he gets cold feet under pressure or simply needs to get MAD (Make a Decision) at the line of scrimmage. Tigers will lean heavily on RB Will Shipley.
North Carolina had one of the highest scoring offenses in 2022, until running into a defensive brick wall in Weeks 12 and 13, against Georgia Tech and NC State. Head coach Mack Brown still knows his X’s and O’s, but he doesn’t make quick adjustments in big stage games anymore. That only happened in the 2006 BCS Championship Game.
Prediction: Clemson is a 7.5 point neutral site favorite and they grind out a 6 point win
Storylines to follow heading into Week #16
- Crank up the hype for the 2022 bowl season and the CFP kicking off on 12/30/22
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #14?
- Can the Big 12 or PAC-12 get a team into the 2023 CFP?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 10 week #14 and try again in week #16.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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