2023 Week 13 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 thanks to Oregon, Arizona, Washington and Florida State
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 2/5 thanks to NC State and Iowa
Overall picks – 6/10 and I avoided going into pit lane
2023 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 57/65
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 28/65
Overall picks – 85/130 which means I’m safely doing the speed limit
Week 14 College Football Conference Championship Games
10. New Mexico State vs. Liberty
Evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) on 12/1/23 from Lynchburg, Virginia for the Conference USA Championship. Aggies had a huge improvement going from 7-6 in 2022 to 10-3 in 2023. Lost to Liberty in Week 3 (33-17). Dual threat QB Diego Pavia (2727 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 806 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs), will be all over the field looking for Carmen San Diego. WR Trent Hudson is an efficient scoring machine (28 catches, 439 receiving yards, 8 TDs). Flames are undefeated at 12-0, and played two close games against Sam Houston (21-16) and MTSU (42-35). First year head coach Jamey Chadwell has quietly and quickly steered this squad to a new level. QB Kaidon Salter (40 total TDs) and RB Quinton Cooley (13 total TDs) will light up the scoreboard.
Prediction: Liberty cruises to a perfect Conference USA season and wins by 8+ points.
9. Oregon vs. Washington
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) on 12/1/23 from Las Vegas, Nevada for the PAC-12 Conference Championship. Rematch of the best regular season game of the 2023 season, that Washington won at home (36-33). Both teams are playing at different levels heading into this huge CFP bracket matchup. Ducks are riding an impressive six game winning streak and were only challenged by USC in Week 10 (36-27). Averaging 541.1 yards and scoring 45.3 points per game. Starting to look like the 2001 squad on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Huskies are 12-0, but have been squeaking by lower tier teams for the last six games. QB Michael Penix Jr. is still officially the man at QB (3899 passing yards, 32 passing TDs), but his defensive teammates are going to have to play fundamentally sound to stay in this game. Coaching will be the difference in this big stage game.
Prediction: Entertaining game for 45-50 minutes, but Oregon uses field position and turnovers to win by 7 points.
8. Oklahoma State vs. Texas
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 12/2/23 from Arlington, Texas for the Big 12 Conference Championship. Intriguing game on paper since the Big 12 Championship historically plays much better than expected, no matter which teams are at Jerry’s World. Cowboys snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in Week 13, with a comeback 2OT win over BYU (40-34). Head coach Mike Gundy will gladly point out the real reason his squad is playing in Week 14, is due to their timely Bedlam win over Oklahoma (27-24) in Week 10. Longhorns have won six straight games, after taking the last drive off against Oklahoma in Week 6 (34-30 loss). Four of those wins have been by ten points or less. Head coach Steve Sarkisian continues to play with fire by motivating his squad with different tactics each week. No matter what, this game will be tight for sixty minutes.
Prediction: Game will be much closer than expected and Texas escapes with a 6 point win.
7. Miami (OH) vs. Toledo
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 12/2/23 from Detroit, Michigan for the MAC Championship. This blogger hasn’t paid attention to the MAC for the past year, so this prediction is simply a dartboard throw. Redhawks aren’t just a basketball and hockey school, and are riding a four game winning streak. Seem to be comfortable in close games and lost to Toledo in Week 8 (21-17). Three man power trio of QB Brett Gabbert, RB Rashad Amos, and WR Gage Larvadain will try to hold onto the rock and run the clock. Rockets lost to Illinois in Week 1 (30-28) and have won eleven straight games. Six of those wins were by seven points or less. QB Dequan Finn (2384 passing yards, 21 passing TDs) and RB Peny Boone (1359 rushing yards, 15 rushing TDs) will put on an offensive show for their fan base.
Prediction: Competitive game for the first half and then Toledo starts to grind out long drives and wins by 10+ points.
6. Boise State vs. UNLV
Late afternoon kickoff (3:00 PM EDT) on 12/2/23 from Las Vegas, Nevada for the Mountain West Conference (MWC) Championship. Computer rankings were used to determine this matchup, due to a convoluted tiebreaker at the top of the MWC standings. Broncos finished strong with three straight wins over New Mexico, Utah State, and Air Force. Offensive unit doesn’t score many points, and they’ll go as far as RB Ashton Jeanty (1109 rushing yards, 13 TDs) can carry them. Rebels will have Stacey Augmon at QB, Larry Johnson at RB, and two small WRs (Greg Anthony, Anderson Hunt). Whoops, looks like Dick Vitale’s historical crib notes got stuck in my head. UNLV has won eight of their last ten games and can score (35.5 points per game). Both teams get a nice parting gift after the trophy presentation, welcoming Oregon State and Washington State into the MWC on a temporary loan basis.
Prediction: UNLV shocks the world and wins by 4+ points to show that any team can win any game in a single elimination tournament.
5. Georgia vs. Alabama
Late afternoon kickoff (4:00 PM EDT) on 12/2/23 from Atlanta, Georgia for the SEC Championship. Now things are getting interesting and intense at the same time. Bulldogs are 12-0 and rounding into late season form in search of a three-peat national championship. Head coach Kirby Smart has his robust defense ready to dominate the line of scrimmage and change drives with DL pressure. QB Carson Beck has overachieved in his first season as a starter, now he gets to face the GOAT (Nick Saban) and a newly retooled defense. Can Alabama bounce back emotionally after a draining last drive win over Auburn in Week 13 (27-24)? As long as QB Jalen Milroe takes care of the football and the Crimson Tide win the turnover battle, this will be an epic game. Grab a six pack of beer, lots of chips and popcorn, don’t answer your cell phones, and this will be the best game of the weekend.
Prediction: Really want to pick Alabama, but this game has a walk off feel to it with Georgia winning by 3 points.
4. SMU vs. Tulane
Late afternoon kickoff (4:00 PM EDT) on 12/2/23 from New Orleans, Louisiana for the American Athletic Conference Championship. Intriguing matchup between the Mustangs (10-2) and Green Wave (11-1). SMU is on an eight game winning streak and have been rolling over teams with authority. Sophomore QB Preston Stone (3197 passing yards, 28 passing TDs) has been playing at a high level, and has a three deep RB corps that churns out yardage. Tulane can play with any team in any venue. Only blemish is a 37-20 loss to Ole Miss in Week 2, which is classified as a quality loss. QB Michael Pratt and RB Makhi Hughes will make an even better tandem in 2024 if they stay in school. Too good off a matchup on paper that should be memorable to watch on television.
Prediction: Back and forth game that will be a track meet. Tulane makes enough red zone plays when it matters to win by 7 points.
3. Appalachian State vs. Troy
Late afternoon kickoff (4:00 PM EDT) on 12/2/23 from Troy, Alabama for the Sunbelt Conference Championship. Mountaineers vs. Trojans. 8-4 vs. 10-2. Five game winning streak vs. nine game winning streak. Teams didn’t play each other during the 2023 season. Sunbelt is historically a basketball conference, but this matchup just feels right due to how well both programs have played on the big stage since 2007. Flip a coin and see what ends up happening.
Prediction: Most college football fans love Appalachian State due to their historic road wins at Michigan in 2007 and Texas A&M in 2022. This blogger is picking the Trojans since they have the same school name as one of my good college friends and they win by 5 points.
2. Michigan vs. Iowa
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) on 12/2/23 from Indianapolis, Indiana for the Big Ten Conference Championship. This matchup is a repeat of the 2021 Big Ten Championship Game that Michigan won easily 42-3. If Bill Murray is anywhere near Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday night, then its definitely Groundhog Day in December and the scoreboard will be very similar. Watch the kickoff, listen to the halftime show and then switch the channel. Michigan will still lose in the national semifinals game no matter which team they play. Nothing to see here. Rinse, repeat, move on.
Prediction: Michigan covers easily winning by 20+ points and Jim Harbaugh’s coaching future will be analyzed the entire second half by the talking heads on Fox Sports.
1. Louisville vs. Florida State
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) on 12/2/23 from Charlotte, North Carolina for the ACC Championship. Louisville was primed to bring chaos to the CFP in this game, until losing focus and their Week 13 game against Kentucky (38-31). Now they can still be spoilers, if they play sound football and not be awed by the speed and depth of the Seminoles roster. An opportunistic offense will have to mix up their play calling to try and keep Florida State on their heels. Head coach Mike Norvell has brought a new culture and elite level mindset to Tallahassee, Florida. Now he gets to deal with losing his starting QB Jordan Travis, and most likely backup QB Tate Rodemaker, for this game. Third string freshman QB Brock Glenn will have to grow up in a hurry on the big stage. RB Trey Benson and WR Keon Coleman are too focused to have Florida State trip up in this coronation game.
Prediction: In a sloppy game, Florida State finds a way to win by 4 points.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #15
- Crank up the hype machine for Army vs. Navy
- Get ready for an extended bowl season and four team CFP bracket
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #14?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Week #14 and try again during the first week of bowl games.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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