This article covers the most exciting week 2 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2022 Week 1 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 3/5 thanks to Pittsburgh, Georgia and Ohio State
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 0/5 even though Purdue, East Carolina and UTSA lost by a combined total of seven points
Overall picks – 3/10 and I’m already flirting with the Mendoza Line
Week 2 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. USC vs. Stanford
Evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) on 9/10/22 from Stanford, California. Seems like a lifetime ago that Pete Carroll built a powerhouse at USC from 2001-2008. Stanford officially ended the Trojans dynasty on 10/6/07, winning on the road as a 41 point underdog. Despite a bounce back 2008 season, Jim Harbaugh hammered the final nail in the Trojans coffin on 11/14/09 with an emphatic 55-21 Cardinal victory.
Trojans haven’t been the same since, despite a PAC-12 title in 2011 and a memorable 2017 Rose Bowl victory over Penn State. New head coach Lincoln Riley brought numerous transfers from Oklahoma with him to Los Angeles. Now the country will get to see how the new band plays on the road without a soundcheck session. Stanford hasn’t played in a bowl game since the 2018 season. Head coach David Shaw is entering his twelve season with Stanford and he seems perfectly content not to make the jump to the NFL. Since the big upset in 2007, the Cardinal have won nine of the last fifteen games in this series.
Prediction: USC takes three quarters to find their footing and pull away for a 10 point victory
4. Alabama vs. Texas
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 9/10/22 from Austin, Texas. Currently an SEC vs. Big 12 matchup, until the Longhorns move to the SEC starting in 2025. Hard to believe Texas leads this series 7-1-1 heading into this game. Last meeting was the BCS Championship Game after the 2009 season, with the Crimson Tide winning the national title easily (37-21). Since that game, Alabama has been a historical juggernaut program winning five national titles, sending countless players to the NFL and expanding the Nick Saban coaching tree. Longhorns have gone the opposite direction since 2009, transitioning from head coach Mack Brown, to Charlie Strong, to Tom Herman and now Steve Sarkisian. Texas has had seven winning seasons in the last twelve years and moving to the SEC will only cause their games to get harder.
Prediction: Alabama will come out focused to quiet a 100,119+ Longhorns crowd early in the game and will cover the 20.5 point line easily
3. Kentucky vs. Florida
Evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) on 9/10/22 from Gainesville, Florida. At first glance this is a quality basketball matchup, but both schools have become relevant in football again. Wildcats are flying high under Mark Stoops after going 10-3 in 2021. Won the Citrus Bowl over Iowa and had their first home win against Florida since 1986. Florida has played inconsistent football since 2013, with three memorable seasons and six forgettable seasons for their fan base. Gators showed a lot of mojo beating Utah in Week 1 at the Swamp, and we’ll find out if they are for real in Week 2. Both teams need to find a running game in Week 2 to take the pressure off the QBs (Will Levis and Anthony Richardson)
Prediction: Billy Napier will turn around the Gators program quickly, but Kentucky wins this SEC game by 3 points
2. Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State
Evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) from Stillwater, Oklahoma. Sun Devils always look good during September each season, until old school head coach Herman Edwards wears them out. Starting QB Emory Jones is a transfer from Florida, and he might finally be putting his leadership skills to good use in the desert. Take note of transfer RB Xazavian Valladay from Wyoming. He’s averaging 7.7 yards per carry and has two TDs. He might have found a perfect fit with Jones at QB.
Oklahoma State elevated their team play in 2021, due to a historical comeback win over Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. Senior QB Spencer Sanders is off to a good statistical start in 2022 and he has a deep RB and WR corps to lean on. Only question is if the Cowboys defensive unit comes close to the quality play of the 2021 unit. Head coach Mike Gundy has a sleeping giant growing in Stillwater and I hope he doesn’t mess it up.
Prediction: Oklahoma State smothers the Sun Devils offense in the second half and wins by 14 points
1. Baylor vs. BYU
Late night kickoff (10:15 PM EDT) from Provo, Utah. Intriguing Big 12 vs Independent matchup, until both teams reside in the Big 12 in 2023. Baylor typically plays well at home and even better on the road. Head coach Dave Aranda has erased most of the bad memories left behind from the Art Briles era. Aranda is a damn good coach and natural leader.
The Bears might have to deal with being a good team from a bad conference (Big 12) this season. A road victory against a ranked team would significantly help Baylor’s resume.
Kalani Sitake is in his seventh season as the head coach of the Cougars. BYU has trended up in 2020 (11-1) and 2021 (10-3) due to Sitake’s communication and guidance. Unfortunately BYU will be without their top two WRs (Puka Nacua, Gunner Romney) in this game due to injuries. That’ll be a tough mountain to climb against a sound Bears squad.
Prediction: Will be a competitive game for 30 minutes and then Baylor pulls away for an 11 point win
Week 2 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Iowa State vs. Iowa
Iowa leads the Cy-Hawk Trophy series 46-22 and have won the last six games played. Big hype for the 2021 game, due to the Hawkeyes being ranked #10 and the Cyclones #9, with Iowa winning 27-17. Here’s a stat that hardly happens anymore, both programs starting QB, leading RB and leading WR are all original recruits, no transfer portal players. This is now an official old school football game. Cyclone WR Xavier Hutchison should be playing on Sundays in 2023. Hawkeyes are currently 3.5 point home favorites, but they’ll be pushed by Iowa State for sixty full minutes.
4. Oregon State vs. Fresno State
Beavers seem to be playing with a chip on their shoulder due to the short future of the PAC-12 conference. Bulldogs always play tough at home. Oregon State starting QB, sophomore Chane Nolan, looks like a solid game manager at 6′-3″ and 209 lbs. Only problem is Nolan has no running game by committee, to help him when first downs are hard to convert on the road. Fresno State starting QB, senior Jake Haener, continues to pad his professional prospect resume by throwing to a deep WR corps. Haener made a smart move by transferring from the University of Washington after the 2018 season. This game is currently an even betting line and I’m taking the Bulldogs to win by 7 points at home. One of these days I’ll try a fancy burrito from Sal’s Mexican Restaurant in Fresno, CA.
3. Mississippi State vs. Arizona
SEC vs. PAC-12 matchup from the desert in Tucson, Arizona. Still not a fan of Mississippi State head coach, Mike Leach, and his weird press conference musings. Bulldogs QB Will Rogers had a monster statistical game in Week 1 against Memphis, throwing for 450 yards and 5 TDs. That performance was done by throwing to twelve different receivers. No signs of a consistent running game, which seems to a Leach calling card at every school he’s coached at. Arizona starting QB, Jayden de Laura, leads a suddenly talented roster with DJ Williams at RB and Jacob Cowing at WR. Second year Wildcats head coach, Jedd Fisch, has fully embraced the transfer portal and he’s going to be a hot coaching commodity in five years or less. Bulldogs are currently a 10.5 point road favorite, but Arizona has something to prove to their dwindling student body and fan base.
2. Boston College vs. Virginia Tech
This used to be a much anticipated ACC matchup year in and year out. Eagles have gotten used to being an annual 0.500 team, with five winning seasons in the last ten years. Hokies have had seven winning seasons in the last ten years, but seem to be treading water and badly regressing each season. College Football Hall of Fame coach Frank Beamer retired after the 2015 season, and its been a carousel of bad coaching hires since then for Virginia Tech. Jeff Hafley is trying to lead Boston College back to relevance, due to the program regressing since 2009. This will be an ugly game with the Hokies currently being a 3.0 point home favorite. Due to the home field mystique of Lane Stadium starting to wane, Eagles steal a road victory.
1. Missouri vs. Kansas State
Tempted to pick South Carolina to beat Arkansas, but I need to stay above the Mendoza Line. Missouri looked much improved from 2021, with an easy 52-24 win over Louisiana Tech in Week 1. Tigers ran for 323 yards and threw for 235 passing yards, which is the balance they’ve been craving. Kansas State shut out South Dakota 34-0 in Week 1, despite throwing for only 95 yards. Something will have to give in Manhattan, Kansas as two former rivals meet for the 97th time, which has been paused since 2011. Tigers lead the series 60-32-5 and should make this game entertaining as a 7.5 point road underdog.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #3
- Are the Pitt Panthers for real with Kedon Slovis as the starting QB?
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #2?
- Will Miami make life uncomfortable for Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 week #2 and try again in week #3.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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