This article covers the most exciting week 3 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2022 Week 2 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 thanks to USC, Alabama, Kentucky and Oklahoma State
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 1/5 thanks to Iowa State
Overall picks – 5/10 which is better than week 1
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 7/10
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 1/10
Overall picks – 8/20 which is trending up
Week 3 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Air Force vs. Wyoming
Evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) on 9/16/22 from Laramie, Wyoming. Falcons enter this game with a lot of momentum after big wins in Week 1 and Week 2, to be 2-0. Lead this series 30-26-3 and have won the last two meetings in 2019 and 2021. Currently averaging 44.5 points per game and a staggering 508.5 rushing yards per game. Air Force historically plays better at home than on the road against Wyoming, but head coach Troy Calhoun has his squad primed and ready each week.
Cowboys were overwhelmed in their season opener at Illinois, losing 38-6. Have bounced back with wins over Tulsa and Northern Colorado. QB Andrew Peasley needs to continue throwing crossing routes, in order to open up some running lanes for RB Titus Swen. The running game will literally carry this offense until it figures out an identity. Fan base will be yelling “move them chains” when first downs are gained. Wyoming will only stay in this game if their defense is stout and gets off the field after third downs.
Prediction: Air Force is currently a road favorite by 16.5 points and they barely cover winning by 17 points
4. Oklahoma vs. Nebraska
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 9/17/22 from Lincoln, Nebraska. Sooners have gelled quickly under new head coach Brent Venables, with easy wins over UTEP and Kent State. Due to the rash of nationwide upsets in week 2, Oklahoma has risen to the #6 ranking, and their fan base thinks this is “the year.” QB Dillon Gabriel has gotten off to a good start throwing for 529 passing yard and 5 TDs. RB Eric Gray has emerged as the yardage guy (173 rushing yards), and RB Marcus Major is the scoring guy (3 rushing TDs). If the Oklahoma defense can stay focused and pay attention to every snap, the Big 12 championship could easily be theirs.
Now that the Scott Frost firing watch is over after losing to Georgia Southern at home in week 2 (45-42), what is next for the reeling Cornhuskers? Sitting at 1-2, interim head coach Mickey Joseph gets to try and bring some stability to the locker room. Nebraska used to be one of the elite programs in the country from the 1970s to 1990s, and then something happened. Head coach Tom Osborne retired and the athletic department hasn’t found the right replacement since 1997. Recruiting has eroded, there’s been a lack of leadership across the entire coaching staff, and a bad product has been on the field. Athletic Director Trev Alberts gets to figure this mess out and not sure if he will in the next 3-5 years.
Hard to believe the last #1 vs. #2 matchup in this series played in 2000, was a massive turning point for both programs.
Prediction: Oklahoma is focused to make up for the bumpy game played in 2021 and they win by 14+ points
3. Penn State vs. Auburn
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 9/17/22 from Auburn, Alabama. Big Ten vs. SEC matchup, with the Nittany Lions winning 28-20 in 2021. Penn State fell off the Top 25 map after that victory, due to losing five games by a combined twenty-one points. Enter this game at 2-0, due to a close win against Purdue and a blowout victory over Ohio. Head coach James Franklin is a great motivator and his team won’t be intimidated playing in Jordan Hare Stadium. Helps that starting QB Sean Clifford is in his fifth year at Penn State.
Tigers are 2-0 due to victories over Mercer and San Jose State. Not sure what the temperature currently is in the Auburn locker room. The 2022 offseason was marred by a full investigation of head coach Bryan Harsin. There were numerous rumors about why that investigation took place. How Harsin is still the head coach, is beyond my pay grade and intellectual capacity. Winning does cure most ailments, but that working relationship will be lucky to survive into 2023 or beyond. Hopefully the Tigers have a game plan for this matchup and how they want to shape their program outlook going forward.
Prediction: Penn State will control field position and clock management to win by 3 points
2. Texas Tech vs. NC State
Evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) from Raleigh, North Carolina. Red Raiders are 2-0 after an impressive 33-30 victory over Houston in week 2. QB Donovan Smith looks like the real deal at 6′-5″ and 230 lbs. RB Tahj Brooks has four rushing TDs, and the tandem WRs of Jerand Bradley and Loic Fououji will keep defensive coordinators awake at night. New head coach Joey McGuire is leading Texas Tech into the hard part of their 2022 schedule. If they finish September strong, the rest of the Big 12 Conference will definitely notice.
NC State is still carrying a chip on their shoulder for not being able to play in the 2021 Holiday Bowl. Enter this game at 2-0, with a one point win over East Carolina and a blowout of Charleston. ACC play starts next week, therefore its time to see if the Wolfpack are for real against a tough opponent. QB Devin Leary and RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye will lead the way on a balanced offense. Still need to develop a go-to WR on critical third downs to be a consistent offense.
Prediction: Will be an entertaining game for 60 minutes, with NC State winning by 7 points
1. Fresno State vs. USC
Late night kickoff (10:30 PM EDT) from Los Angeles, California. Trojans lead this series 3-1, with some memorable games in 1992 and 2005. USC fired head coach Larry Smith after losing the 1992 Freedom Bowl 24-7. Reggie Bush cemented his Heisman Trophy campaign in the 2005 game. Trojans played solid team football at Stanford in week 2, winning 41-28. Offensive skill players look polished and ready to score on every snap. Defensive unit has some gaping holes and blown coverages, that head coach Lincoln Riley and his staff need to address ASAP. Will need to game plan for Bulldogs QB Jake Haener, since he will be playing in the NFL in 2023.
Fresno State historically plays well in late night matchups and this game will have a ton of scoring. Due to the nationwide chaos of upsets in week 1 and week 2, the Bulldogs won’t be waiting in the weeds for the Trojans, they’ll just come out slinging the ball all over the field and see what happens. Never bet against head coach Jeff Tedford when he faces a green USC roster.
Prediction: One of the better games this weekend for 60 minutes and the Trojans find a way to win by 8 points
Week 3 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. BYU vs. Oregon
Series is tied 3-3, with that last game in 2006 being won by BYU 38-8. Cougars had a season defining win in week 2 over Baylor (26-20 in 2OT). Oregon was overwhelmed in week 1 by Georgia (49-3), before bouncing back with a win against Eastern Washington (70-14) in week 2. Dan Lanning is the correct head coach to get Oregon back to national prominence, but he’ll spend the next two seasons vetting out recruits from the previous coaching staff. Fan base mojo won’t be back at Autzen Stadium until 2024 at the earliest, which leads to a big road win for the Cougars.
4. Mississippi State vs. LSU
Early season SEC matchup between two coaches that don’t need an introduction, Mike Leach (Mississippi State) and Brian Kelly (LSU). Bulldogs are 2-0 after wins over lowly Memphis and Arizona. Tigers are 1-1 after blowing the season opener to Florida State and then beating Southern. Extremely hard game to figure out due to lacking bodies of work, and both teams are overshadowed by their head coaches personalities. Mississippi State averages 44.0 points per game and 486.5 yards of total offense. LSU averages 44.0 points per game and 449 yards of total offense. This game is officially a toss up and LSU will win at home despite being a 2.5 point underdog, due to it being a night game.
3. Michigan State vs. Washington
Big Ten vs. PAC-12 matchup from the waterfront in Seattle, Washington. Rare west coast trip for a Spartans squad that seems to be embracing a pass first offense. QB Payton Thorne has thrown for 445 yards and 4 TDs, but he needs to limit or eliminate costly interceptions. Sophomore RB Jalen Berger looks like a transfer portal steal from Wisconsin, and hopefully he holds up under a big workload at 6′-1″ and 205 lbs. Huskies are rebuilding and retooling under new head coach Kalen DeBoer. Washington has slipped from the upper tier of the PAC-12, since Chris Peterson stepped down after the 2019 season. Head into this game at 2-0, due to wins over Kent State and Portland State. Television coverage will show one of the most scenic venues in all of college football. Michigan State wins a tight game to move up into the Top 10 rankings.
2. SMU vs. Maryland
Running out of upsets to pick and this 2-0 vs. 2-0 matchup stood out. SMU had easy victories over North Texas and Lamar. Meat of their American Conference schedule starts in Week 6. Mustangs are still fine tuning their offensive game plans. Maryland had workmanlike victories over Buffalo and Charlotte. Terrapins will jump directly into Big Ten play in week 4 against Michigan. Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa, yes he is Tua’s brother, is off to a solid start with 681 passing yards, 4 passing TDs and 1 rushing TD. Terrapins are currently a home favorite by 2.5 points, but have a gut feeling that SMU will be ready to play.
1. Miami vs. Texas A&M
Most college football experts and publications deemed the best 2022 recruiting class to be Texas A&M, led by head coach Jimbo Fisher. After rumors began to circulate about how that recruiting class was “landed” by the Aggies, Alabama head coach Nick Saban compared name, image, likeness (NIL) opportunities between all of the SEC schools. Fisher decided to call an impromptu and unprofessional press conference, allowing him to rip Saban.
For some reason, Appalachian State played the game of their lives in week 2 and upset Texas A&M on the road (17-14). Aggies plummeted from #6 to #24 in the polls. That’s one dose of football karma. Hurricanes are a good team lead by a hungry coach (Mario Cristobal), who was an assistant coach under Saban. Time for that second dose of football karma, when the Hurricanes push the Aggies around despite being a 6.5 point road underdog. This is what happens when you poke the bear Jimbo.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #4
- Are the Oklahoma Sooners a legitimate team to make the CFP in 2022?
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #3?
- Will the Big Ten conference live up to 2022 expectations?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 week #3 and try again in week #4.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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