This article covers the most exciting week 4 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2022 Week 3 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 thanks to Oklahoma, Penn State, NC State and USC
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 1/5 thanks to LSU
Overall picks – 5/10 which is right at the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 11/15
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 2/15
Overall picks – 13/30 which is slowly trending up
Week 4 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Maryland vs. Michigan
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 9/24/22 from the Big House in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Terrapins enter this game at 3-0 and seemingly ready for the rigors of Big Ten conference play. Junior QB Taulia Tagovailoa (yes he is Tua’s brother), is off to a solid start throwing for 895 yards, 6 TD passes, 54 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD. Keep a close eye on redshirt freshman RB Roman Hemby and his gaudy 9.2 yards per carry average. Junior WR Rakim Jarrett does a nice job stretching the field.
Wolverines found out how to play at an elite level in 2021, by reaching the College Football Playoff (CFP). Can they maintain that quality of play or even improve on it, to let the the pollsters know they aren’t a one and done program? Easy wins over cupcake matchups with Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn won’t help Michigan get over the stigma of playing an easy schedule on paper in 2022. J.J. McCarthy takes over at QB for the injured Cade McNamara. RB Blake Corum will continue to see a big workload due to already rushing for 235 yards and 7 TDs. Ronnie Bell leads the WR corps, with an astonishing twenty players having already caught at least one pass in three games played.
Prediction: Michigan will exert some serious defensive pressure on Tagovailoa and easily cover the 17.0 point spread at home
4. Clemson vs. Wake Forest
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 9/24/22 from Winston-Salem, North Carolina. The suddenly robust ACC has five undefeated teams in Week 4, and this matchup is #5 vs. #21. Head coach Dabo Swinney and the Tigers are back in the Top 5 rankings, due to steadier play from QB DJ Uiagalelei. Have I been under a rock or need new glasses, since Uiagalelei is listed at 6′-4″ and 235 lbs? Due to his inconsistent play in 2021, he seemed much smaller at the line of scrimmage. Super sophomores RB Will Shipley and WR Beaux Collins are proving yet again that Swinney knows how to recruit top level talent.
Demon Deacons cruised in Weeks 1 and 2 with victories over VMI and Vanderbilt. Were very lucky to beat Liberty by one point in Week 3 (37-36). Dave Clawson has quietly built a nice program at Wake Forest and his name typically pops up when head coach openings are available at other schools. Had a breakout 2021 season going 11-3, which included a berth in the ACC Championship Game and a Gator Bowl victory over Rutgers. Clemson smoked the then #10 ranked Demon Deacons on 11/20/21, by a score of 48-27. Tigers still rule the ACC as long as Swinney is the head coach.
Prediction: This is not a trap game for Clemson and the Tigers win by 10 points……they are back yet again in the CFP conversation
3. Florida vs. Tennessee
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 9/24/22 from Knoxville, Tennessee. SEC matchup between two teams possibly heading in different directions. Gators rebounded from a Week 2 loss to Kentucky by beating South Florida (31-28). Florida played a sloppy game that could have resulted in another loss, but they rallied behind RBs Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne. QB Anthony Richardson needs to be a more accurate passer or the SEC defenses are going to eat him for lunch in October and November 2022.
Volunteers are clicking in all phases of the game right now and a lot of credit needs to go to head coach Josh Heupel. QB Hendon Hooker, RB Jaylen Wright, WR Jalin Hyatt and WR Cedric Tillman can hang with all of the top tier offensive skill players in the country. Heupel has a juggernaut offense right now. If Tennessee’s defensive unit can get off the field on third down and special teams contributes when they are supposed to, watch out for the Volunteers. If Peyton Manning pays a surprise visit to their locker room, that might put this squad into another performance level.
Prediction: Tennessee controls the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and wins by 14+ points
2. USC vs. Oregon State
Late evening kickoff (9:30 PM EDT) from Corvallis, Oregon. Trojans Air Raid offense is thriving under new head coach Lincoln Riley. Currently averaging 520.0 yards and 50.7 points per game. Transfer portal WR Jordan Addison has 295 receiving yards and 5 TDs in three games. All of the stat geeks have extrapolated how many TDs Addison could end up with this season. Simple answer is a ton, but everything changes in PAC-12 Conference play and when the weather starts to get colder. USC still has significant issues on defense, due to surrendering 380.7 yards and 19.7 points per game. Riley needs to spend some serious time with defensive coordinator Alex Grinch and come up with a revised game plan.
Seems like yesterday that the Beavers upset #1 ranked USC at their home field on 9/27/08 (27-21). Freshman RB Jaquizz Rodgers had 186 rushing yards and 2 TDs for Oregon State. USC QB Mark Sanchez played one of the worst games of his college career and the rest is program history. Oregon State is 3-0 due to three victories over State schools (Boise State, Fresno State, Montana State). Have a sneaky offensive unit led by QB Chane Nolan, RB Deshaun Fenwick and WR Tre’Shaun Harrison. To quote Han Solo, “I have a very bad feeling” about this game for the Trojans.
Prediction: Worth staying up late to watch this game for fans on the east coast. Trojans offense grinds to a halt in the third quarter, but two big turnovers in the fourth quarter lead to a 7 point USC victory.
1. Duke vs. Kansas
Afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) from Lawrence, Kansas. Can’t wait to see the ESPN Gameday crew of Rece Davis, Seth Greenberg, Jay Bilas and LaPhonso Ellis talk X’s and O’s. How will the Blue Devils transition now that Coach K is retired? Does Duke have a deep enough bench to play physical defense with the front court of the Jayhawks? How on earth did North Carolina blow a fifteen point halftime lead in the 2022 national championship game and let Bill Self win his second national championship? So many questions, so many answers and college basketball begins in September 2022? Maybe I need to check the calendar and my internet feed….what year is it again?
Both teams are off to 3-0 starts. All six victories were by eight points or more and Kansas literally dismantled Houston in week 3. What on earth is happening this college football season? Sit back, relax and watch two great academic institutions battle it out on the gridiron. The winning head coach will suddenly be a “hot name” and “rising star” in the coaching ranks to keep an eye on…..until reality sets in during Week 5 conference play.
Prediction: Will be a close game for 60 minutes and the Jayhawks find a way to win by 3 points due to a walk off deep three pointer…I mean a field goal
Week 4 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Texas vs. Texas Tech
Was looking at the West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech game to pick and thankfully this intriguing matchup is better on paper. Longhorns are getting the experts attention due to hanging tough with Alabama in Week 2 (lost 20-19). Backup QB Hudson Card is going to have be a better poker player to move the offense at a better clip. Red Raiders are coming off a loss to NC State in Week 3 (27-14). QB Donovan Smith needs to take care of the football and stop throwing interceptions around like Bed Bath and Beyond coupons. Longhorns are a 7.0 point road favorite, but Texas Tech will keep this game close for at least 45 minutes.
4. Baylor vs. Iowa State
Bears enter this game at 2-1 and they seem to have forgotten the OT loss to BYU in Week 2. QB Blake Shapen and RB Richard Reese are doing exactly what they are supposed to do on offense. Baylor needs a WR to emerge from the depth chart to demand the ball and move the chains on a consistent basis. Seventeen players have caught at least one pass, but the team leader only has nine receptions. Something has to click or the Bears are going to be one-dimensional. Cyclones are 3-0 and riding a wave of momentum. The chemistry between QB Hunter Dekkers (745 passing yards, 8 TDs) and WR Xavier Hutchinson (28 receptions, 319 receiving yards, 5 TDs) is must watch television on a weekly basis. Bears won the last matchup (31-29) on 9/24/21. One year later, Baylor is comfortable being a 2.5 point road underdog.
3. Oregon vs. Washington State
PAC-12 conference matchup that Oregon leads 52-42-7 and have won the last three games from 2019-2021. Ducks had a big rebound victory in Week 3 against BYU (41-20). New head coach Dan Lanning is changing the program culture in Eugene, OR at a quick pace. Helps that transfer portal QB Bo Nix has three offensive weapons to choose from: RB Mar’Keise Irving, RB Noah Whittington, WR Tony Franklin. Cougars are a resilient squad due to getting better in 2021, despite a mid-season head coaching change to Jake Dickert. QB Cameron Ward (727 passing yards, 8 TDs) and RB Nakia Watson (224 rushing yards, 1 TD) might be the best kept college football secrets west of the Mississippi River. Oregon is a valid 6.5 point road favorite, but stranger things have happened in Pullman, Washington before to PAC-12 power teams.
2. Notre Dame vs. North Carolina
Took a long look at the Virginia vs. Syracuse game on 9/23/22 as a potential upset, but didn’t have the stones to pick UVA on the road. Fighting Irish vs, Tarheels matchup is a tale of two different squads in Week 4. Notre Dame is 1-2 after a humbling start for new head coach Marcus Freeman. Inconsistent QB play from Tyler Buchner and Drew Pyne, has caused no offensive rhythm at all. That leads to no scoring drives and a predictable play calling system. North Carolina scores points in bunches (547.3 yards and 51.3 points per game). Their defense is a sieve due to allowing 468.3 yards and 37.7 points per game. Something will have to give in Chapel Hill, North Carolina and the Fighting Irish will show they are still relevant in the ACC, despite being a 2.5 point road underdog.
1. Minnesota vs. Michigan State
Big Ten conference matchup between the surging Gophers and the slumping Spartans. Head coach P.J. Fleck has the entire Minnesota roster rowing the boat, with three straight lopsided wins over New Mexico State, Western Illinois and Colorado. Get to go on the road to East Lansing, Michigan in Week 4. QB Tanner Morgan (618 passing yards, 4 TDs), RB Mohamed Ibrahim (464 rushing yards, 7 TDs) and WR Chris Autumn-Bell (19.5 yards per reception) each have a legitimate chance to shred most Big Ten defenses.
Michigan State decided to treat their road trip to Washington in Week 3 as a walk thru drill. Spartans were smoked 39-28 and their passing secondary is statistically atrocious, currently allowing 264.3 passing yards per game. Head coach Mel Tucker now gets to show if his ten year contract extension was worth it. Michigan State historically goes into a shell when they lose a big game, and I’m hoping 2022 brings a new outlook and performance level not seen since the late 1990s. Minnesota is a solid 3.0 point road favorite, but the home crowd should help Spartan Nation stay in the game for four quarters.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #5
- Power 5 conference races start to heat up with critical games in the ACC, SEC, Big 12 and PAC-12.
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #4?
- When will Karl Dorrell officially be on the hot seat in Boulder, Colorado?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 week #4 and try again in week #5.
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