This article covers the most exciting week 5 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2022 Week 4 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 5/5 thanks to Michigan, Clemson, Tennessee, USC and Kansas
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 3/5 thanks to Baylor, Texas Tech and Notre Dame
Overall picks – 8/10 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 16/20
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 5/20
Overall picks – 21/40 which is right at the mean
Week 5 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Alabama vs. Arkansas
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 10/1/22 from Fayetteville, Arkansas. #2 vs. #20 in an early season SEC matchup. Crimson Tide have dominated three of their four opponents to start the season. Their one point victory over Texas in Week 2 seems like a distant memory. QB Bryce Young is off to a strong start due to 1029 passing yards, 13 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs. Young seems to be leading the 2022 Heisman Trophy race after four games. RB Jase McClellan and WR Traeshon Holden are the early clubhouse leaders in offensive statistics. Will Anderson Jr. is must watch viewing as the best LB and defensive player in the country. Just a matter of time until he’s being compared to Lawrence Taylor, when he’s playing on Sundays.
Razorbacks blew a golden opportunity to beat Texas A&M in Week 3, and ended up losing 23-21. QB KJ Jefferson, RB Raheim Sanders and WR Matt Landers are the big three of a high octane offense. Not much depth after those guys and the defense is still a work in progress. Head coach Sam Pittman has Arkansas pointed in the right direction, but they aren’t ready to even hang close with the big boys in the SEC yet.
Prediction: Alabama will be clicking in all three phases of the game and easily cover the 17.0 point road favorite betting line
4. NC State vs. Clemson
Primetime evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) on 10/1/22 from Clemson, South Carolina. A tough ACC matchup under the lights in Death Valley. Wolfpack were fortunate to squeak by East Carolina in Week 1 by one point (21-20), before reeling off three solid victories. Getting into the heart of their ACC schedule over the next six weeks. If NC State wants to control the clock and chew up yardage, they need to increase the workload of RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (252 rushing yards, 3 TDs). Might be the best college football player currently wearing #0.
Tigers played an instant classic game against Wake Forest in Week 3, winning 51-45 in double OT. QB DJ Uiagalelei has officially become “the guy” running the Clemson offense, and the sky’s the limit for team yardage and points in 2022. RB Will Shipley continues to move the chains and score TDs, despite being under sized. Fifteen players have caught at least one pass and the receiving corps has 11 TD catches. Head coach Dabo Swinney has talent and depth at all the skill positions yet again. 2:1 odds there will be another team pizza party in mid-December, when the College Football Playoff slots are announced.
Prediction: Enjoy the ABC television coverage of pre-game activities at Death Valley. Clemson wins a high scoring game by 7 points to stay in the national title conversation.
3. Oklahoma State vs. Baylor
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 10/1/22 from Waco, Texas. Rematch of the 2021 Big 12 Championship Game that Baylor won 21-16. Cowboys won the last regular season matchup on 10/2/21 in Stillwater, Oklahoma (24-14). This game could be considered the rubber match, but there’s a very good chance both teams will end up meeting again in the 2022 Big 12 Championship Game.
Head coach Mike Gundy had a sleeping giant of a squad in 2021 and now they know how to win close ballgames. QB Spencer Sanders (916 passing yards, 10 passing TDs, 3 rushing TDs), RB Dominic Richardson (215 rushing yards, 2 TDs) and WR Braydon Johnson (300 receiving yards, 3 TDs) lead a quick strike offense. Defensive unit isn’t as strong as the 2021 squad, but they are gaining confidence each week. This is the current team to beat in the Big 12.
Baylor kept a low profile and waited in the weeds in 2021, until Oklahoma visited in Week 11 and then the Bears became a Top 10 team. Head coach Dave Aranda shows that a quiet personality can do great things, leading a team out of obscurity and into the national spotlight. Won the 2022 Sugar Bowl over Ole Miss (21-7), and have already tripped up this season on the road against BYU in Week 2 (26-20). QB Blake Shapen and RB Richard Reese will pace the Bears offense, but their defense will have to be stout to keep this game close into the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Best game of the weekend will be high scoring and have several momentum swings. Oklahoma State wins by 4 points and solidifies their top 10 ranking.
2. Kentucky vs. Ole Miss
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) from Oxford, Mississippi. Wildcats are still the talk of the 2022 season due to being ranked #7 and beating Florida on the road in Week 2. Senior QB Will Levis is already getting hyped as the potential #1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, due to having thrown for 1185 yards, 4 passing TDs and 3 rushing TDs. Trio of WRs Tayvion Robinson (349 yards, 2 TDs), Dane Key (251 yards, 3 TDs) and Barion Brown (201 yards, 2 TDs) pace the offense. Defensive unit isn’t getting any media attention, despite holding opponents to 272.0 yards and 13.0 points per game. This squad can play SEC football.
Rebels have opened the season with four straight wins over “second tier” opponents and now they jump into the deep end of the SEC. Jaxson Dart has been a decent game manager as the new starting QB. Freshman RB Quinshon Judkins looks like a diamond in the rough, due to rushing for 429 yards and 5 TDs. You never know what head coach Lane Kiffin will do in a big game setting, whether his team is winning or losing. Definitely worth watching since there’s a statistical probability that Kiffin will cause a train wreck.
Prediction: Hard game to predict due to Ole Miss being a 7.0 point home favorite. Kentucky keeps surfing their good luck karma wave to a 10 point road win.
1. LSU vs. Auburn
Primetime evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) from Auburn, Alabama. Two SEC teams seemingly heading in opposite directions. Tigers have had three convincing wins in a row, after the late game debacle against Florida State in Week 1. Transfer portal QB Jayden Daniels has thrown for 835 passing yards and 6 TDs. Daniels has also run for 262 yards and 2 TDs. Therein lies the rub, new head coach Brian Kelly is infatuated with an average dual threat QB, to run the ball against the best defenses in the SEC. Not a recipe for success. Auburn has close wins over Missouri and San Jose State, which has head coach Bryan Harsin firmly planted on the hot seat. If this game turns into another home blowout like the loss to Penn State in Week 3 (41-12), Harsin might not make it to the locker room for postgame interviews.
Prediction: Could be a close game or could be a blowout depending on the attitude of the Tigers starters. LSU finds a way to win on the road by 7 points.
Week 5 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Washington vs. UCLA
Key PAC-12 Conference game to set the early tone in trying to catch USC and their Air Raid offense. Huskies have already proven that a new head coach (Kalen DeBoer) and transfer portal QB (Michael Penix Jr.), can almost single handily revive a program that has been in hibernation. Big wins over Michigan State and Stanford have shot Washington up to #15 in the polls, and there’s excitement on the Puget Sound for the first time since 2018.
Bruins have quietly won four games in a row, thanks to an easy schedule and a one point victory over South Alabama. Head coach Chip Kelly seems to have August and September games figured out, but struggles with October and November games since moving to Pasadena, California. WRs Jake Bobo and Kazmeir Allen have significantly reduced the number of TE pass routes run by UCLA per game. Huskies are a valid 2.5 point road favorite, but the Bruins will go the distance to win with a walk off field goal.
4. Wake Forest vs. Florida State
Another quality ACC matchup that will determine if any teams want to challenge Clemson for the league championship. Demon Deacons matched Clemson for 2 OTs in Week 4, before losing 51-45. QB Sam Hartman is off to a sizzling start with 962 passing yards and 13 TDs. WR Jahmal Banks is an incredibly efficient sophomore with 15 receptions, 238 receiving yards and 5 TDs. Need to tighten up the defensive unit, due to giving up 375.8 yards and 30.5 points per game.
Seminoles are 4-0 for the first time since 2015 and are amped to play a top tier ACC opponent. The next three weeks will make or break Florida State’s season, and it’ll be interesting to see how head coach Mike Norvell handles pressure when being the favored team. QB Jordan Travis, RB Treshaun Ward and WR Johnny Wilson are all underclassmen, meaning the Seminoles are going to be competitive again for the next one-to-two seasons. Florida State is a generous 6.5 point home favorite, but this will be a close contest for 60+ minutes due to Wake Forest’s vertical passing game.
3. Illinois vs. Wisconsin
Big Ten Conference continues to be in the headlines with the approved move of USC and UCLA joining in 2024. Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Minnesota are all top tier teams so far in 2022. The rest of the Big Ten seems to have taken a step backwards (Purdue, Michigan State). Fighting Illini are 3-1 with decent wins over Wyoming and Virginia. Transfer portals QB Tommy DeVito (954 passing yards, 9 TDs) and RB Chase Brown (604 rushing yards, 3 TDs) lead a sneaky but good offense. Defense is currently tied with Georgia for fourth stingiest in the country, due to only allowing 8.0 points per game.
Badgers aren’t getting much publicity these days, after getting blown out by Ohio State in Week 3 (52-21). Inconsistent QB play and lack of depth has still translated to 433.0 yards of offense and 34.8 points per game. Defense is allowing 319.3 yards and 19.0 points per game. Something has to give in this game and the Illini will make the Badgers life uncomfortable, despite being a 7.0 point road underdog.
2. Iowa State vs. Kansas
Cyclones come into this game at 3-1, after having a quality loss to Baylor in Week 4 (31-24). Head coach Matt Campbell’s name is starting to circulate again with potential job openings. QB Hunter Dekkers and WR Xavier Hutchinson are must watch TV viewing, due to their statistical bond on the football field. Iowa State’s schedule gets much harder after this game (Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma), so its time to walk the talk.
Jayhawks are the feel good story of the 2022 season so far, since they are a perennial basketball powerhouse and football is almost an afterthought. QB Jalon Daniels is the straw that stirs Kansas’ drink, due to passing for 890 yards and 11 TDs. Daniels has also rushed for 320 yards and 4 TDs. Now that’s a five star dual threat QB that Brian Kelly forgot to take a look at. Cyclones are a solid 3.0 point road favorite, but Dorothy hasn’t put on those red slippers yet and the Jayhawks will hang around and try to get to 5-0.
1. Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State
Why do I decide to look at a matchup like this? My least favorite coach, Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M, decided to carry around a pile of expense reports last week on the sidelines. My second least favorite coach, Mike Leach at Mississippi State, continues to think he has the coaching chops to hang in the SEC. Why do I keep focusing on these guys? I need an intervention to quit getting wound up about both coaches and their respective programs. Aggies have been inconsistent in 2022, but back-to-back close wins over Miami and Arkansas might wake up their locker room. Bulldogs have three cakewalk wins and got manhandled at LSU. Mississippi State is a tentative 4.0 point home favorite, but the Aggies will be ready to play as they start to think about meeting Alabama in Week 6.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #6
- Have a notepad ready for the bulletin board notes coming out of the press conferences for Texas A&M vs. Alabama.
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #5?
- Who will get fired first, Karl Dorrell or Bryan Harsin?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 week #5 and try again in week #6.
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