This article covers the most exciting week 6 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2022 Week 5 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 thanks to Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma State and LSU
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 4/5 thanks to UCLA, Wake Forest, Illinois and Kansas
Overall picks – 8/10 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 20/25
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 9/25
Overall picks – 29/50 which is right at the mean
Week 6 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Washington State vs. USC
Primetime evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) on 10/8/22 from Los Angeles, California. Cougars have a quality win (Wisconsin) and a quality loss (Oregon), as they head into the heart of their PAC-12 Conference games. Currently trail in this series 10-61-4 and haven’t beaten USC since 2017. Sophomore QB Cameron Ward has been a steady game manager (1445 passing yards, 13 TDs), but he needs to reduce turnovers (7 INTs). Fellow sophomore WRs Donovan Ollie (298 receiving yards, 2 TDs) and De’Zhaun Stribling (286 receiving yards, 4 TDs), clearly shows the next two seasons in Pullman, Washington will be memorable for the fan base.
Trojans Air Raid offense is clicking at 480.4 yards and 42.2 points per game. QB Caleb Williams (1402 passing yards, 12 TDs) and WR Jordan Addison (442 receiving yards, 6 TDs), have shown a natural on field connection. If Addison continues to play at a high level this season, he’ll start to draw comparisons to fellow Pittsburgh Panthers alum Larry Fitzgerald. USC needs to focus on this matchup, since their Achilles’ heal (Utah Utes) are waiting for them to visit Salt Lake City, Utah in Week 7.
Prediction: USC will sputter for two quarters and then find cruise control in the second half as they cover the 12.5 point home favorite betting line
4. Florida State vs. NC State
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) on 10/8/22 from Raleigh, North Carolina. Both teams enter this ACC matchup after suffering their first losses of the season. Seminoles lost to Wake Forest in Week 5 (31-21), and now they get rewarded with NC State and Clemson in back-to-back games. Head coach Mike Norvell has Florida State almost out of the huge hole ex-head coach Willie Taggert created in 2018-2019. Offensive trio of QB Jordan Travis, RB Treshaun Ward and WR Johnny Wilson continue to produce good statistics, but the defense is getting torched for 481.6 yards and 34.2 points per game. That ratio needs to improve or the early season 4-0 start will be a distant memory.
Wolfpack hung with Clemson for three quarters in Week 5, but ran out of gas in the fourth quarter and had two costly turnovers. QB Devin Leary (1135 passing yards, 10 TDs) and WR Thayer Thomas (301 receiving yards, 2 TDs) are starting to gel. NC State desperately needs a consistent running game that is averaging 132.8 yards per game. Most of those yards have been gained in garbage time. If this offense gets some balance, they’ll be a tough out for the rest of the ACC.
Prediction: NC State is a 3.5 point home favorite and will win by 6 points
3. Tennessee vs. LSU
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 10/8/22 from Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Now things are getting interesting in Week 6. Volunteers have two quality wins (Pittsburgh, Florida), as they wade into the deep end of the SEC pool (LSU, Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia). QB Hendon Hooker (1193 passing yards, 8 passing TDs, 175 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs), has climbed the Heisman Trophy list of early season favorites. Tennessee is leading the country in total offense (559.3 yards) and tied for second in scoring (48.5 points per game). Head coach Josh Heupel isn’t doing his job using smoke and mirrors, his squad has changed the program culture in less than two years. That’s impressive, most impressive.
LSU is on a slight roll due to winning four straight games. Showed some onions coming back to beat Auburn in Week 5 (21-17), after trailing 17-0 late in the second quarter. Defensive unit is stout, giving up 293.8 yards and 14.8 points per game. Still not convinced QB Jayden Daniels can effectively lead his offense when they get involved in a track meet. Tennessee will gain significant yardage in this matchup, and it’ll be interesting to see if the Tigers have the intestinal fortitude to play sound defense or end up taking plays off.
Prediction: Tennessee is a quiet 2.5 point road favorite and they win this game by 10 points
2. Kansas State vs. Iowa State
Primetime evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) from Ames, Iowa. Pivotal Big 12 Conference game that will determine if either of these teams can keep up with Oklahoma State and Kansas. Still can’t believe how Wildcats QB Adrian Martinez ran for 148 yards and 4 TDs against Oklahoma in Week 4. Not to mention he’s a transfer portal player that started his collegiate career at Nebraska. Now that’s a two ton irony card. How on earth did Kansas State lose to Tulane in Week 3 (17-10)? Currently only averaging 406.4 yards of offense per game, but extremely efficient in scoring 32.4 points per game.
Cyclones are trying to get back on track after back-to-back losses to Baylor and Kansas. Currently last in the Big 12 Conference, averaging 381.6 yards and 26.0 points per game. Senior WR Xavier Hutchinson (504 receiving yards, 5 TDs) will continue to turn NFL scouts heads for the rest of the 2022 season. RB Jirehl Brock (361 rushing yards, 2 TDs) has seen his carries dry up faster than a Bounty towel since Week 2. Head coach Matt Campbell needs to get this squad back to playing smash mouth football and winning ugly games.
Prediction: Kansas State is a 1.0 point road favorite and wins this game by 9 points
1. Texas A&M vs. Alabama
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) from Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Aggies are wondering what could have been in 2022. Went from having the #1 ranked recruiting class in the country, to head coach Jimbo Fisher starting a name, image, likeness (NIL) argument with Alabama head coach Nick Saban, using an impromptu press conference. Doesn’t help that Texas A&M has already lost to Appalachian State (at home) and to Mississippi State (on the road). Humble pie is best served cold. and Fisher should learn to coach first, before being an unauthorized and uneducated spokesperson for the NCAA.
Crimson Tide are currently ranked #1 after a workmanlike victory over Arkansas in Week 5 (49-26). Starting QB Bryce Young was injured in that game and all media eyes will be watching to see if he plays against the Aggies. RB Jahmyr Gibbs is the latest workhorse to come out of the Alabama stable of running backs. Had a monster game against Arkansas (207 rushing yards, 3 TDs). WR corps is deep with nine players having caught at least one pass, but still waiting for a go to guy to emerge who wants to move the chains.
Prediction: Alabama won’t cover the 24.0 point spread playing at home, but they’ll get their work in during a 14 point win
Week 6 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Utah vs. UCLA
Big PAC-12 Conference game that will separate the pretenders from the contenders. Utes have rebounded nicely after losing to Florida in Week 1 (29-26). Haven’t had a close game in four straight wins. QB Cameron Rising, RB Tavion Thomas, and WR Devaughn Vele are playing with a ton of confidence right now. Head coach Kyle Whittingham has his squad focused on another PAC-12 title and a return trip to the Rose Bowl. This matchup might be a dress rehearsal at the best college football stadium in the USA.
UCLA is 5-0 thanks to a comeback win over Washington in Week 5 (40-32). QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (1211 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 223 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs) has been getting significant media coverage, due to working on his game for five years in Los Angeles, California. Bruins have depth at RB and a quality WR corps that have bought into a team first mentality. If head coach Chip Kelly doesn’t overthink his playbook, UCLA will be right behind USC for the rest of the season. Utah is favored by 3.5 points, but this game is a coin flip. Score will be high and close for sixty minutes.
4. Texas vs. Oklahoma
Longhorns lead the Red River Showdown 62-50-5. Sooners have won the last four meetings since 2018. Texas is on a win-loss-win-loss-win pattern, so they are trending for another loss. Freshman QB Quinn Ewers is slated to return for the first time, since injuring his non-throwing shoulder in Week 2 against Alabama. RB Bijan Robinson (515 rushing yards, 8 TDs) and WR Xavier Worthy (331 receiving yards, 3 TDs) have been carrying the offense. Defensive unit will have to keep the Oklahoma RBs between the hash marks, and make fundamental tackles to stay in this game.
Sooners are reeling after back-to-back losses to Kansas State and TCU. New head coach Brent Venables isn’t on the hot seat yet, but he’ll have to work his tail off this weekend. If QB Dillion Gabriel doesn’t play due to a concussion sustained in Week 5, backup QB Davis Beville will step up and manage the offense. RB corps is deep and ready to run the Longhorns upside down. Bigger issue is the Oklahoma defensive unit, currently surrendering 481.4 yards and 37.0 points per game. That needs to be tightened up immediately or this game will get out of hand.
Longhorns are a robust 8.0 point favorite at the old Cotton Bowl Stadium. Have a gut feeling the Sooners are going to play inspired football and keep this game close into the fourth quarter.
3. North Carolina vs. Miami
Tarheels offense is averaging 507.2 yards and 45.4 points per game. Defense is allowing 450.8 yards and 33.6 points per game. Simple math shows North Carolina winning games by 11.8 points (45.4-33.6).
Hurricanes offense is averaging 448.8 yards and 35.0 point per game. Defense is allowing 336.0 yards and 20.5 points per game. Simple maths show Miami winning games by 14.5 points (35.0-20.5).
Sports books in Las Vegas most likely set the current betting line of Miami being a 3.5 point home favorite, due to using the statistics listed above:
- 14.5 points – 11.8 points = 2.7 points
- +0.8 points due to home field advantage
- =3.5 points
I’ll take North Carolina’s offense over Miami’s defense every day of the week in 2022 to win on the road.
2. BYU vs. Notre Dame
Cougars and the Fighting Irish playing in Las Vegas has a weird ring to it. Cougars enter this matchup at 4-1, and have underrated QB Jaren Hall (1438 passing yards, 12 TDs) leading the offense. RB corps is three players deep and the WR corps is five players deep. Notre Dame is 2-2 and still trying to get used to new head coach Marcus Freeman. QB Drew Pyne has been inconsistent (459 passing yards, 6 TDs). RB corps is two players deep and the WR corps is two players deep. Notre Dame is a 4.0 point favorite in the Sin City, but BYU is treating this weekend as a business trip to a neutral site, and they’ll be victorious due to roster depth.
1. TCU vs. Kansas
Two of the biggest surprises of the 2022 season. Horned Frogs are 4-0 thanks to quality wins over SMU and Oklahoma. Senior QB Max Duggan is the real deal (997 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 149 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs). RB Kendre Miller (386 rushing yards, 5 TDs) runs like Barry Sanders and is built like Jerome Bettis (6′-0″, 220 lbs). Eighteen players have at least one catch on the season. TCU has been waiting for the rest of the Big 12 to notice them until now.
Jayhawks are 5-0 and have quality wins over Houston, Duke and Iowa State. QB Jalon Daniels continues to be an elite dual threat each week (1312 total yards, 16 TDs). Head coach Lance Leipold will start to be mentioned for other job openings (Wisconsin, Nebraska). That type of media pressure can cause fissures in the locker room, but I don’t see that happening in 2022. TCU is a valid 7.0 point road favorite, but if the Jayhawks win the time of possession, this game will be close in the fourth quarter.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #7
- Huge games in the SEC, Big 10 and PAC-12 will dominate the airwaves and chat rooms.
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #6?
- How many more games until Bryan Harsin is fired at Auburn?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 week #6 and try again in week #7.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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