This article covers the most exciting week 8 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2022 Week 7 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 thanks to Michigan, Syracuse, Clemson and North Carolina
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 3/5 thanks to Illinois, LSU and Kentucky
Overall picks – 7/10 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 29/35
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 14/35
Overall picks – 43/70 which is one standard deviation above the mean
Week 8 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Syracuse vs. Clemson
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 10/22/22 from Clemson, South Carolina. Huge ACC matchup that will give the winner a big leg up in the Atlantic Division. Orange have a six game winning streak and are ranked #14. Head coach Dino Babers is in his seventh season at Syracuse and has a steady and low key personality which seems to mesh well in upper New York state. Offense has a three headed monster based on season statistics: QB Garrett Shrader (1434 passing yards, 12 TDs), RB Sean Tucker (644 rushing yards, 6 TDs) and WR Oronde Gadsden II (507 receiving yards, 5 TDs). Defense only allows 268.8 yards and 13.2 points per game. Sneaky squad that is gaining confidence each week.
Tigers need to be careful this week and not look ahead to their Week 9 game against Notre Dame. QB DJ Uiagalelei continues to erase all memories of his bad 2021 season, with 1665 passing yards and 17 TDs. He’s also chipped in with 334 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs. Sophomore WR Beaux Collins has become a legitimate receiving threat, due to having 18 receptions, 290 receiving yards, 5 TDs. All Collins does is catch touchdowns. Clemson is scoring 38.6 points and allowing 19.7 points per game. This game will have a weird ebb and flow to it. Tigers need to be on upset alert and avoid what happened in 2017.
Prediction: Clemson is a legitimate 14.0 point home favorite, but they’ll have to be focused and play technically sound in the second half to end up winning by 10 points.
4. Ole Miss vs. LSU
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 10/22/22 from Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Rebels have been keeping a low profile since beating Kentucky in Week 5. Took care of business in Week 6 against Vanderbilt (52-28), and a complete team effort in Week 7 at home against Auburn (48-34). 2022 has been the season of head coaches moving and making questionable media statements. Lane Kiffin has been surprisingly quiet and maybe he’s learned to let his team walk the talk. Freshman RB Quinshon Judkins (720 rushing yards, 10 TDs) and WR Jonathan Mingo (507 receiving yards, 3 TDs), might be two of the best recruits Kiffin has ever found. Closing the season with five consecutive tough SEC matchups.
Tigers rebounded from a bad loss to Tennessee in Week 6 (40-13), by outlasting Florida in Week 7 (45-35). LSU dominated the Gators on the scoreboard and statistically, before giving up two garbage TDs in the fourth quarter. QB Jayden Daniels finally embraced the forward pass in Week 7 with 3 TD passes, but he’ll be running for his life against the Ole Miss defense. Tigers lead the Magnolia Bowl series 64-41-4. Rebels won the 2021 game (31-17) and haven’t won at Death Valley in Baton Rouge since 2008 (31-13). LSU will need to focus for sixty minutes to stay in this game. Any lack of focus or taking a play or two off will be the difference in the final score.
Prediction: LSU is a valid 1.5 point home favorite, but there’s something about those Ole Miss red jerseys and white helmets for this game. Rebels win with a walk off field goal.
3. UCLA vs. Oregon
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 10/22/22 from Eugene, Oregon. PAC-12 is finally on center stage in Week 8, with a legitimate chance to have a team make the College Football Playoff (CFP). Bruins are 6-0, with back-to-back impressive wins over Washington (40-32) and Utah (42-32). Senior QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (1510 passing yards, 15 TDs, 231 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs), might be writing the perfect Cinderella ending to his playing career in Los Angeles, California. Defensive unit is good at bending, but not breaking by giving up 344.8 yards and 22.7 points per game. Don’t pay any attention to their 1-9 record against Oregon over the last ten meetings.
Ducks have climbed back into the CFP conversation thanks to five straight wins and more consistent play from transfer portal QB Bo Nix. Nix is currently completing 70.4% of his passes, which is opening up running lanes for RB Bucky Irving (429 rushing yards 2 TDs). WR and TE corps goes five players deep, with at least 100+yards receiving for the season. Oregon’s 2021 squad started to quit on Mario Cristobal when they played ranked teams late in the season. This matchup is the first PAC-12 test they’ve had, since failing badly in the season opener against Georgia (49-3). Time to see if new head coach Dan Lanning has taught the importance of a short term memory to the 2022 Ducks roster.
Prediction: Oregon is a stout 6.5 point favorite playing at home and will be wearing Stomp Out Cancer uniforms and helmets for this game. DTR outplays Nix in the fourth quarter and UCLA steals a 6 point road win.
2. Texas vs. Oklahoma State
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) from Stillwater, Oklahoma. Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian has also been quiet this season, after too many incidents landed his name in the headlines. Have a three game winning streak heading into this matchup. Next three games (Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU) will determine if Texas is the real deal or not. Precocious freshman QB Quinn Ewers has thrown for 461 yards and 7 TDs, since returning from injury in Week 5. How will Ewers and national #1 ranked recruit Arch Manning get along in 2023? Time will tell. RB Bijan Robinson might be the most underrated player in college football (780 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs, 239 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD).
Cowboys will be trying to rebound after a tough loss to TCU in Week 7 (43-40 in 2OT). Due to the lackluster season the Oklahoma Sooners are having, the next two weeks are critical games for Oklahoma State (Texas, Kansas State) to remain in the Top 10 rankings. QB Spencer Sanders is still having a stellar season with 1639 passing yards, 13 passing TDs, 309 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs. Has helped the WR corps become a four man wrecking crew (Braydon Johnson, Brennan Presley, Bryson Green, John Paul Richardson). Need the defense to tighten up significantly (437.3 yards and 27.8 points per game allowed), or November will be a month to forget.
Prediction: Texas is a surprising 6.0 point road favorite and no one upsets Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Cowboys win a close game by 4 points.
1. Kansas State vs. TCU
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) from Fort Worth, Texas. Most intriguing game of Week 8 with massive implications in the Big 12 conference. Wildcats are riding a three game winning streak, but their last two victories (Texas Tech, Iowa State) haven’t been convincing on the scoreboard. Transfer portal QB Adrian Martinez (900 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 546 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs), continues to be a human highlight reel in Manhattan, Kansas. He’ll need to energize Kansas State’s passing game to have a chance against TCU. Wildcats defense is underrated due to averaging 354.5 yards and 16.7 points per game.
TCU is 6-0 and they have two tough games left on their schedule (Week 8 vs. Kansas State, Week 11 vs. Texas). If the Horned Frogs win both of those games, it’ll feel like 2010 and 2015 all over again for the Big 12 conference. Senior QB Max Duggan continues to run an almost flawless offense, that has enabled six WRs to eclipse 100+ receiving yards for the season. RB Kendre Miller (578 rushing yards, 8 TDs) softens up defenses by averaging 96.3 yards per game. Each week the Horned Frogs adapt quicker to their opponents game plan and have new wrinkles with their offensive formations. Definitely the team to beat right now in the Big 12.
Prediction: TCU is a solid 3.5 point home favorite and they win by 7+ points
Week 8 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Cincinnati vs. SMU
Bearcats are 5-1 and ranked #21 heading into this matchup. After being the CFP darlings of the 2021 season, they’ve kept a low profile in 2022. Currently in second place in the American Conference behind Tulane (that is not a misprint). QB Ben Bryant had been ruled out of this game due to a concussion. Mop up QB Evan Prater will get the starting nod and that has caused the betting line to fluctuate this week. Mustangs are 3-3 with no quality wins, but they did push TCU in Week 4 (losing 42-34). Led by two seniors, QB Tanner Mordecai (2016 passing yards 15 TDs) and WR Rashee Rice (761 receiving yards, 4 TDs). Cincinnati is a 3.0 point road favorite, but SMU will feast on a team playing without an experienced QB.
4. Purdue vs. Wisconsin
Boilermakers have rebounded from a 1-2 start, by cobbling together a four game winning streak. Only quality win was at Minnesota in Week 5 (20-10). QB Aidan O’Connell (1950 passing yards, 14 TDs) and WR Charlie Jones (735 receiving yards, 9 TDs) are almost must watch television viewing heading into November. Freshman RB Devin Mockobee (453 rushing yards, 5 TDs) seems to play better in bigger games. Badgers have been scuffling since head coach Paul Chryst was fired on 10/2/22. Despite being outplayed for most of the game in Week 7, lost to Michigan State in 2OT (34-28). Wisconsin’s recruiting department needs a facelift and the rest of the 2022 season won’t have many Big Ten highlights. Camp Randall Stadium will jump around at the start of the fourth quarter due to being a 1.5 point home favorite, but Purdue will have the game in hand in the second half.
3. Boise State vs. Air Force
Broncos are typically road warriors, but they’ve regressed this season to 1-2 at games not played on blue AstroTurf. Enter this matchup at 4-2 and trying to hold onto first place in the Mountain Division of the Mountain West Conference. Inconsistent QB play and no WR depth, have overshadowed RB George Holani’s steady play (549 rushing yards, 3 TDs). Top notch defensive unit is only allowing 235.7 yards and 19.2 points per game. Falcons trail in this series 4-6-0 and won the last game in 2021 (21-17). Air Force is 5-2 and could be looking ahead to their Week 9 game against Army. Beat Navy in Week 5 (13-10) and they always focus on winning the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy. Falcons are a legitimate 2.0 point home favorite, but Boise State will hang around late in the third quarter after getting used to playing at a high elevation (7200 feet above sea level).
2. Minnesota vs. Penn State
Gophers were rowing along nicely at 4-0 and have had back-to-back losses to Purdue and Illinois. Boilermakers are underrated on offense and the Fighting Illini are proving to be a defensive sleeping giant in the Big Ten. Starting QB Tanner Morgan will be a game time decision with an upper body injury. If Morgan can’t play, freshman QB Athan Kaliakmanis will get the starting nod. Senior RB Mohamed Ibrahim (694 rushing yards, 9 TDs) will carry the rock a ton, no matter who Minnesota rolls out at QB. Nittany Lions were beaten badly by Michigan in Week 7 (41-17). Gave up 418 rushing yards and 4 TDs to a motivated Wolverines offensive unit. Will be trying to fine tune their offensive game plan against Minnesota, due to facing Ohio State in Week 9. Yet another favored team that could looking a week ahead and needs to be on upset alert. Penn State is a 5.0 point home favorite and this game will feature RBs all day long for both teams. If Minnesota limits their turnovers, the score will be close heading to the fourth quarter.
1. Pittsburgh vs. Louisville
When upset predictions get tough, pull up a warm blanket and lean on an old friend. Pittsburgh was one of my go to teams in 2021, and they have a cool uniform/helmet design that harkens back to the Tony Dorsett years of the mid 1970s. Not to mention head coach Pat Narduzzi is bidding his time for a bigger job in the NFL. Panthers are 4-2 and need some help to keep up in the Coastal Division of the ACC. Transfer portal QB Kedon Slovis has underachieved (1167 passing yards, 5 TDs), while RB Israel Abanikanda (830 rushing yards, 13 total TDs) has thrived. Louisville enters this game at 3-3 and they are on a lose, win pattern which means they are trending for a loss. QB Malik Cunningham (968 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 457 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs) continues to pad his NFL resume, by being the latest clone version of Lamar Jackson. Louisville is a 2.5 point home favorite and Cunningham is returning from concussion protocol. I’ll take that comfortable blanket (Pitt) to get a much needed road victory.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #9
- Huge games in the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 will dominate the airwaves and chat rooms.
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #8?
- Will the Notre Dame fan base start to question the head coaching hire of Marcus Freeman?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 week #8 and try again in week #9.
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