2023 Week 7 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 5/5 thanks to Washington, Tennessee, North Carolina, Oregon State and Duke
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 3/5 thanks to Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Kansas State
Overall picks – 8/10 and I had an awesome week
2023 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 30/35
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 15/35
Overall picks – 45/70 which means I’m moving into second gear
Week 8 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Penn State vs. Ohio State
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 10/21/23 from Columbus, Ohio. Big Ten conference joins the CFP discussion with a tasty matchup at the Horseshoe. Nittany Lions are 6-0 and haven’t played a stout opponent yet. Precocious sophomore QB Drew Allar (1254 passing yards, 12 passing TDs, 3 rushing TDs), continues to emulate a young Ben Roethlisberger in the huddle and under center. Stingy defensive unit only allows 193.7 yards and 8.0 points per game. Buckeyes have a signature win over Notre Dame in Week 4 (17-14), and the rest of their games have been cake walks. With RB TreyVeyon Henderson being banged up, QB Kyle McCord will use WR Marvin Harrison Jr. to slow down the pass rush and use time consuming drives. This game will be close for sixty minutes and could swing momentum with a special teams play.
Prediction: Ohio State grinds out a 4 point victory.
4. Washington State vs. Oregon
Afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 10/21/23 from Eugene, Oregon. Cougars were cruising along at 4-0 and climbing the polls, before back-to-back losses to UCLA and Arizona. Head into this game as a 20.0 point road underdog and suddenly the depth of the PAC-12 is evident. QB Cameron Ward will try to play pitch and catch with this three talented WRs (Kyle Williams, Josh Kelly, Lincoln Victor). Don’t have the depth on the defensive side of the ball to slow down the Oregon offense. Ducks will have to rebound quickly after losing the best game of the 2023 season so far, to Washington (36-33). QB Bo Nix is slowly climbing the Heisman Trophy favorites list and WR Tony Franklin is must watch viewing these days. Helps that the throwback green and yellow uniforms will be on full display at home this weekend.
Prediction: Oregon controls this game from the opening kickoff and coasts to a 21+ point victory.
3. Tennessee vs. Alabama
Afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 10/21/23 from Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Rematch of the best game played during the 2022 regular season, with the Volunteers winning 52-49. Tennessee hasn’t looked polished this year and scoring points on offense is a struggle. RB Jaylen Wright continues to do the heavy lifting in the running game (571 rushing yards, 1 TD). Dylan Sampson is the change of pace tailback inside the red zone (273 rushing yards, 6 TDs). Outcome of the game will hinge on QB Joe Milton III’s ability to avoid the pass rush and not give up turnovers.
Crimson Tide are on a five game winning streak, and have almost perfected winning in ugly fashion over Texas A&M and Arkansas. Two headed attack of RB Jase McClellan and WR Jermaine Burton will lead the Alabama offense. Defense is steady due to allowing 292.4 yards and 16.0 points per game, but need to get to the QB.
Prediction: Physical game and Alabama tightens down on defense to win by 6 points.
2. Michigan vs. Michigan State
Evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) on10/21/23 from East Lansing, Michigan. Wolverines haven’t been tested in any of their games to get to 7-0. Maybe that is due to the alleged sign stealing scheme actually working for head coach Jim Harbaugh since 2021. Didn’t Michigan suddenly emerge as the powerhouse of the Big Ten late in the 2021 season? That trend has continued through the 2022 regular season and into the 2023 season. Maybe Harbaugh spent some quality mentoring time with Bill Belichick during the spring of 2021. Time will tell.
Spartans are in complete disarray at 2-4, and floundering since head coach Mel Tucker was fired on 9/27/23. No talent or depth on the offensive side of the ball, clearly shows why QB Payton Thorne got the heck out of town via the transfer portal to Auburn. Defense has had its moments, but they are sloppy in their red zone schemes. This is a complete mismatch and won’t be competitive.
Prediction: Michigan barely breaks a sweat and wins by 20+ points.
1. Duke vs. Florida State
Primetime evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) on 10/21/22 from Tallahassee, Florida. Blue Devils rebounded from their Week 5 loss to Notre Dame, with a dominating win over NC State in Week 7 (24-3). QB Riley Leonard is still a game time decision with a bad high ankle sprain injury. Backup QB Henry Belin IV only completed four passes against NC State, and will need to rely on a deep RB and WR corps to keep pace with the surging Seminoles. Florida State is cruising at 6-0 and has an easy schedule in front of them. In order to stay in the moment and not look too far ahead, underrated head coach Mike Norvell will focus his squad on the ACC race and not the CFP until the timing is right. Lots of regular season football still to be played.
Prediction: Good first half and then Florida State wears down the Duke offense and wins by 17 points.
Week 8 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
Falcons are an impressive 6-0 and have a quality win over Wyoming (34-27). Ranked #22 in the polls for the first time since 2019. Senior QB Zac Larrier (8 total TDs) is running the wishbone offense almost to perfection. Defensive unit is only allowing 240.0 yards and 14.7 points per game. Midshipmen are 3-3 and playing at home as a 10.0 point underdog. Currently on a two game winning streak and have a quality loss to Notre Dame. Commander-in Chief Trophy games are hard to pick due to tradition, honor and pride outweighing both teams regular season records. Navy hangs around into the fourth quarter and will be physical with Air Force.
4. Minnesota vs. Iowa
Mid-tier Big Ten matchup of two teams that are flying below the radar. Gophers are stumbling along at 3-3 and were physically manhandled by North Carolina and Michigan. Inconsistent QB play continues to undermine freshman RB Darrius Taylor’s (532 rushing yards, 4 TDs) breakout season. Talented WR corps need to see better passes to stretch the field. Hawkeyes are 6-1 and ranked #24 in the polls. Three game winning streak over Michigan State, Purdue and Wisconsin have Iowa on the national radar. Starting TE Erick All was lost for the season this week due to a torn ACL. Season ending injuries are taking a toll on the offensive side of the ball. Minnesota is primed to have a big offensive performance despite being a 3.5 point road underdog.
3. Pittsburgh vs. Wake Forest
Which team mascot would win a steel cage match between a Panther and Demon Deacon? The mascot that started a Marvel movie franchise (Black Panther, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)? Or a snarling guy with a weird top hat? That matchup is too close to call. Head coaches are an even draw when comparing Pat Narduzzi to Dave Clawson. Both teams have underachieved this season with Pittsburgh at 2-4 and Wake Forest at 3-3. Panthers have won both previous games in 2018 (34-13) and in 2021 (45-21). Have a gut feeling that the team with the best uniforms in college football, wins this third straight matchup with an even betting line.
2. Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia
Cowboys are 4-2 and trending up after back-to-back wins over Kansas State (29-21) and Kansas (39-32). Need to avoid looking ahead to the last Bedlam Series matchup against Oklahoma on 11/4/23. Senior QB Alan Bowman and sophomore RB Ollie Gordan II are carrying the offense on their shoulders. If the defensive unit can match that intensity, watch for big things to happen in Stillwater, Oklahoma down the stretch. West Virginia has to find a way to forget their last second Hail Mary loss to Houston in Week 7 (41-39). Going from a sure win to a shocking last play loss, can have a profound effect on a squad in the locker room and on the field. Oklahoma State seizes that opening and plays fearless football as a 3.0 point road underdog.
1. Utah vs. USC
Utes are sitting at 5-1 and looking up at Oregon, Oregon State, Washington and USC in the PAC-12. Three of their next four games (USC, Oregon, Washington), will most likely cause those standings to become even tighter. QB by committee is still working for Utah due to having a five deep WR/TE corps. Defense is playing lights out due to only allowing 277.8 yards and 12.2 point per game.
Trojans played through the worst possible scenario at Notre Dame in Week 7 (48-20 loss). Offense was sloppy and took the night off. Holes on defense were exposed and exploited by the Notre Dame offense for all sixty minutes. Lincoln Riley coached teams have a tendency to think they can flip a switch and suddenly become unbeatable. That is a bad mentality to have in a deep PAC-12 this season. Utah has won three straight games against USC and will extend that streak to four games. Betting line is way off with the Trojans as a 7.0 point home favorite.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #9
- Crank up the hype machine for Oregon vs. Utah
- Can Georgia dominate Florida yet again at the world’s largest outdoor cocktail party?
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #8?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 Week #8 and try again in Week #9.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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